am19psu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 ahh now i see with that plot firmly backs up the roundy one we were posting early that shows the little bump into phase 6-7ish You got it. And the reason the total forecast doesn't go all the way to P8 is because other types of convection are interferring with the total signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 I got a question, say the mjo phase is in phase 8 then heads into the circle of death. When in the circle of death, does that argue for the mjo not having as much influence on a pattern and other signals having a greater influence? When it does enter the COD, the phase that it enters it from when it gets in the cod does it continue that kind of pattern associated with the phase it entered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 You got it. And the reason the total forecast doesn't go all the way to P8 is because other types of convection are interferring with the total signal. so the one you posted showing phase 8, is basically the mjo solely by itself with no impoact from kelvin waves, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I got a question, say the mjo phase is in phase 8 then heads into the circle of death. When in the circle of death, does that argue for the mjo not having as much influence on a pattern and other signals having a greater influence? When it does enter the COD, the phase that it enters it from when it gets in the cod does it continue that kind of pattern associated with the phase it entered? Bingo on the bolded. There was hardly any MJO influence at all in Sept this year, which is why there were a bunch of piddling TCs all over the globe, but nothing fun or exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Rainshadow, just ran a GWO Monthly analog for November values with La Nina's, fast forwarded, it looks like What the Canadian Ensembles are saying could possibly happen, but I dunno if it will occur that quick (I generalized between Christmas and Jan 10th, because of lag of stratospheric conditions, and MJO timing). It make sense though, that blocking finally develops, QBO has finally dropped & going Easterly, 50mb EQ value has dropped some as well. Looking at Stratospheric plots of temps over the pole, we are finally spiking up the last 3-4 days. From the point of view that these temps have been near or below all time lows and are coming up, the sudden rate of change in T could cause a some sort of PV displacement scenario negating the +AO even if numbers only hang around the Climatological Mean Line... Bingo, exactly. There isn't much supporting this fast a change, not that one (on several levels appears in the cards) farther down the road won't occur. While the pna outlooks have had some of the best correlation scores among the teleconnection indices, the day 14 pna correlation score of .5 off the gfs is not that good. Lots of good stuff on here Adam and Tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Bingo, exactly. There isn't much supporting this fast a change, not that one (on several levels appears in the cards) farther down the road won't occur. While the pna outlooks have had some of the best correlation scores among the teleconnection indices, the day 14 pna correlation score of .5 off the gfs is not that good. Lots of good stuff on here Adam and Tombo. hear, hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 love this thread. how's the 12z euro looking today? gfs looks interesting... front close enough to the area down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 12Z Euro does a flip as far as temperatures goes and brings colder temps into the east next weekend...not buying off on it yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 There may be a little window around Christmas eve for some thing to happen but other than than that I think we're still looking at around the 10th of January for anything significant. Couldn't post the other graphs for the NAO EPO but nothing exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 love this thread. how's the 12z euro looking today? gfs looks interesting... front close enough to the area down the road As i just posted in the NYC thread .. Today's 12 Z run of the ECM shears out the system for the 19-20th time frame..At 204 hrs there is a low pressure developing over TX with cold air over most of the country... At 210 hrs it starts to move east.. but by 222 hrs it just shears out so nothing but light moisture along the gulf stretched out west to east.. Another low which was off the coast of Southern CAL then moves east and is in the SW/TX region by 240 hours...temps at 222 hrs which is 18 Z sunday are only in the 30s and at 240 hrs they are in the 20s! So the moral of the story is this run has changed by shearing out the system but it is still cold ..though at 240 you do see a SE Ridge... Also it starts to break down the + AO by bringing positive height anomalies over the pole and greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 0z run did show some strat warming north of 60N but it was over Siberia, not the NPAC. I don't see a physical mechanism for this solution. I'm hesitant to get too excited about this particular run, though if there is some consistency over the weekend, I'll change my tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 0z run did show some strat warming north of 60N but it was over Siberia, not the NPAC. I don't see a physical mechanism for this solution. I'm hesitant to get too excited about this particular run, though if there is some consistency over the weekend, I'll change my tune. JB is humping the JMA through Christmas and New Years. I didn't know it went out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 you know you are in a crap pattern, when cold air surges down in the plains only to lift out as it heads east and gives us a glancing blow. Cutters don't even bring cold canadian air, its more like pacific air. I remember one of the "cold" fronts that came through it was sw winds that ushered in chillier air...FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 you know you are in a crap pattern, when cold air surges down in the plains only to lift out as it heads east and gives us a glancing blow. Cutters don't even bring cold canadian air, its more like pacific air. I remember one of the "cold" fronts that came through it was sw winds that ushered in chillier air...FAIL We'll do a variation of the Green Day song for you, we'll "wake you up when December ends". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 We'll do a variation of the Green Day song for you, we'll "wake you up when December ends". Walt's naefs arent showing much promise through christmas. AO still severely pos along with the -nao, though some variance up there...only maybe slight positive news is the some hgt rises in the epo region, but the -pna offsets this with the building of the se ridge...screams swfe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 you know you are in a crap pattern, when cold air surges down in the plains only to lift out as it heads east and gives us a glancing blow. Cutters don't even bring cold canadian air, its more like pacific air. I remember one of the "cold" fronts that came through it was sw winds that ushered in chillier air...FAIL Last week's front...loved how it was in the 40's in DC while we were upper 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Walt's naefs arent showing much promise through christmas. AO still severely pos along with the -nao, though some variance up there...only maybe slight positive news is the some hgt rises in the epo region, but the -pna offsets this with the building of the se ridge...screams swfe.... Yeah part of the reason the warmer than average chances come back to envelope our area is that the epo is outlooked to become positive again in week 2. The next few days I'm guessing we'll see how much help the mjo will be down the road since its suppose to crash and burn, but if it don't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 just a slight difference between the 0z gfs and 0z euro. GFS shows a wave running along the front next Saturday and brings a heavy rain event to I-95. EC blows the front through Friday, cold for next weekend (30's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 just a slight difference between the 0z gfs and 0z euro. GFS shows a wave running along the front next Saturday and brings a heavy rain event to I-95. EC blows the front through Friday, cold for next weekend (30's). Please find a way to convert that rain to snow. 1.5" of rain will push the streams out their banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Please find a way to convert that rain to snow. 1.5" of rain will push the streams out their banks Don't worry, the 12z GFS just went to a completely different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 just a slight difference between the 0z gfs and 0z euro. GFS shows a wave running along the front next Saturday and brings a heavy rain event to I-95. EC blows the front through Friday, cold for next weekend (30's). That 00z run has all the makings of a low skill score run; it slammed the Juneau short wave southeastward rapidly. Its rare to see at 96 hours an op model be at total odds with its ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 If this was a Star Trek episode, Scotty would say the shields are buckling Captain: The MJO at least is not dropping like a rock into the circle of death, it is still making some headway. I'm not that good with the GLAAM budget and GWO. In mid November that big mountain torque spike didn't translate to colder weather (here). There are GWO phases too that favor colder weather. Right now its in the circle of death. There are lags (which I admit don't know exactly) with all of these features, don't "think" (or WAGing) much before Christmas, after that the door starts opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That 00z run has all the makings of a low skill score run; it slammed the Juneau short wave southeastward rapidly. Its rare to see at 96 hours an op model be at total odds with its ensemble mean. 12z from both seem to be a bit more in agreement with the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Steve d- Stratospheric warming process has begun at 5 MB: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/05mb9065.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Steve d- Stratospheric warming process has begun at 5 MB: http://www.cpc.ncep....re/05mb9065.gif Based on that graph, it appears that it normally starts rising about this time, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Based on that graph, it appears that it normally starts rising about this time, so I wouldn't get excited yet. How can you throw that away? physics brother physics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 How can you throw that away? physics brother physics There's been no significant change in the anomalies as far as I can tell from that graph for about a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 There's been no significant change in the anomalies as far as I can tell from that graph for about a month. Awesome, doesnt mean that changes are not on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 if we can get the mjo to propagate into phase 7-8 instead of going into the circle of death then maybe we can see something...me thinks if the mjo can muster into these phases look for an epic cutter into the lake that changes something...just my 2 cents... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Awesome, doesnt mean that changes are not on the way... Don't make false statements because you don't understand what the graph is showing. As was stated, anomalies are what matters, and we're still well into the negative anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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