am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 It does'nt take much for any model to say phila will be above normal, since last feb being above normal is now the normal in the city. This year I could see some areas in the burbs of philly (especially those with elevation) getting 3 times as much snow And what meteorological reasoning do you have for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I saw Gary Gray commenting on FB that he's cancelled winter thru mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I saw Gary Gray commenting on FB that he's cancelled winter thru mid January. That's where I'm at right now, too. If the MJO gets to P2/P3 around New Year's (like Roundy is showing), things could get interesting in mid-Jan (h/t HM). Before then, it is going to be a lot more warm than cold, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I saw Gary Gray commenting on FB that he's cancelled winter thru mid January. All the models right now seem to show a mix of cold and warm. Definite periods of cold. That would be better than constant warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 That's where I'm at right now, too. If the MJO gets to P2/P3 around New Year's (like Roundy is showing), things could get interesting in mid-Jan (h/t HM). Before then, it is going to be a lot more warm than cold, methinks. Out of curiosity because Walt has me on tape delay with Roundy info , is that with the MJO taking the usual and customary circuitous route to those phases or emerging from the COD on that side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 That's where I'm at right now, too. If the MJO gets to P2/P3 around New Year's (like Roundy is showing), things could get interesting in mid-Jan (h/t HM). Before then, it is going to be a lot more warm than cold, methinks. Just based on stats I think something should break in January but I'm with you. Until we get the AO to be more cooperative, the positive epo is going to really mess us up. They'll be cold shots but they will be more modest than the warm ones, methinks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Out of curiosity because Walt has me on tape delay with Roundy info , is that with the MJO taking the usual and customary circuitous route to those phases or emerging from the COD on that side? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdet/7.5S_7.5N/2011.png The red thick lines outlines the progression of MJO convection at the equator. The real intense signature dies off around 120E (which is why the PS parameters show it going into the circle of death next week). After that, a weak signal pops in the IO around Christmas time, which should be a P2/P3 signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Just based on stats I think something should break in January but I'm with you. Until we get the AO to be more cooperative, the positive epo is going to really mess us up. They'll be cold shots but they will be more modest than the warm ones, methinks too. Thanks, as always, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 And what meteorological reasoning do you have for that? Just saying that that if you look at recent history it is easy to see that philly is above normal and with this pattern no reason to think anything different for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 So if you go by Wes' Dunkerton post a few days ago and the average lifetime of a strong. cold PV is about 40 days, that puts on track for seeing the potential for an AO shift around Jan 10 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 so looks like ho hum weather for next several days with a chill. xmas eve rev.1 of 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 http://www.atmos.alb...S_7.5N/2011.png The red thick lines outlines the progression of MJO convection at the equator. The real intense signature dies off around 120E (which is why the PS parameters show it going into the circle of death next week). After that, a weak signal pops in the IO around Christmas time, which should be a P2/P3 signature. Thank-you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Euro looking good for a threat at 240, even DT starting to hype it up. Any thoughts Tombo? And has anyone seen the NYC thread recently? The Trials kid is literally our Colin. Too funny. Feel bad for their subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Euro looking good for a threat at 240, even DT starting to hype it up. Any thoughts Tombo? And has anyone seen the NYC thread recently? The Trials kid is literally our Colin. Too funny. Feel bad for their subforum. The look of it at day 10 looks nice like DT states. Solid cold air around, 50/50 low, nice pna ridge, def has the look. Only issue is its ten days out and the teleconnectors don't support it, they support a cutter. Never the less something to watch. The gfs has been hinting at a gradient like setup a couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Euro looking good for a threat at 240, even DT starting to hype it up. Any thoughts Tombo? I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 I'm shocked. lol at which part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 lol at which part That DT would hype up a fantasy range threat on the Euro. I mean, he never hugs that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 That DT would hype up a fantasy range threat on the Euro. I mean, he never hugs that model. yea i figured that, i was gonna say the euro hasnt looked good at day ten in like a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 yea i figured that, i was gonna say the euro hasnt looked good at day ten in like a month Sometimes it doesn't look too good at day 7 either. Actually in terms of corroboration for scientific purposes, I thought the overnight Euro run was better than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Sometimes it doesn't look too good at day 7 either. Actually in terms of corroboration for scientific purposes, I thought the overnight Euro run was better than the 12z run. that map says it all....why someone would talk about a potential 10 days away is beyond me...that map also shows the euro still has the bias of hanging back lows in the sw, but im pretty sure dtk confirmed it last year that was fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 this guy mentions the canadian down the road Joe Bastardi Canadian ensembles with monster eastern trough 12z Christmas Eve. US flatter and warmer pic.twitter.com/3gOKKXgL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 this guy mentions the canadian down the raod not sure how reliable the ggem ens have been. Tony or adam would probably have a better understanding of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Actually in terms of corroboration for scientific purposes, I thought the overnight Euro run was better than the 12z run. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Apparently from the NE thread the 12z Euro Ensembles were much better in the long range though the weeklies sucked big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Apparently from the NE thread the 12z Euro Ensembles were much better in the long range though the weeklies sucked big time. I don't see anything spectacular in the 12z Euro ENS. There is some semblance of a -EPO, but the SE ridge holds, too. Still looks like gradient flow in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't see anything spectacular in the 12z Euro ENS. There is some semblance of a -EPO, but the SE ridge holds, too. Still looks like gradient flow in the means. As long as it's not showing a Bermuda High with dewpoints in the low 70's, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 As long as it's not showing a Bermuda High with dewpoints in the low 70's, I'll take it. Haha, I'm definitely with you there. Scooter is saying the SE ridge dominates the weeklies, which makes sense with the ripping easterlies going on for the next 10 days (at least) in the Tropical Central Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Haha, I'm definitely with you there. Scooter is saying the SE ridge dominates the weeklies, which makes sense with the ripping easterlies going on for the next 10 days (at least) in the Tropical Central Pacific. I'm still holding out hope for a good period of winter weather in January and early February. I posted earlier in this thread about how a few of the past Decembers have spoiled us with snow and cold. I've lived long enough to know that most winters around these parts really don't get going until after the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'm still holding out hope for a good period of winter weather in January and early February. I posted earlier in this thread about how a few of the past Decembers have spoiled us with snow and cold. I've lived long enough to know that most winters around these parts really don't get going until after the New Year. Yeah, like I've said, I have my eye on mid-Jan for cold, pending the sun cooperating. At some point before then, I'm sure we'll see a quick hitting 2-4 storm or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 that map says it all....why someone would talk about a potential 10 days away is beyond me...that map also shows the euro still has the bias of hanging back lows in the sw, but im pretty sure dtk confirmed it last year that was fixed. The Euro has been kind of inconsistent with the sw energy, so maybe it was fixed (vs just having the hanging back bias and dtk would know this more than me). In general it has had a slow over phased bias since the fall from our perspective. Once it starting hanging back the energy there were runs where it would have been precipitating on Thursday. Of course prior to that it had some flat solutions that totally by-passed us and the gfs was hanging back the trof. Then last week the gfs was dead wrong in not hanging back the energy, so its reading like no one is getting out of this winter without any scars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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