tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 heres the clown map, take it fwiw, will most likely be diff at 0z along with every run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Regarding Thursday, the euro a bit more amped, the 0z GFS takes on the EURO's old look. Euro has some snow depicted...the "most" falls in/around hour 78 (early Thursday AM) and is on the order of a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 6z NAM is like the best case scenario for this storm, if it somehow verified I think it would be the definition of threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Sign me up for backside flurries and maybe an inch of accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 The long range after this weekend, just looks dreadful. No sign of blocking, with a pacific flow. (que adam with torch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Sign me up for backside flurries and maybe an inch of accumulation Rib will probably douple or triple the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The long range after this weekend, just looks dreadful. No sign of blocking, with a pacific flow. (que adam with torch) Yeah, not looking good at all... there will be more cutting systems with the southern storm track, but that's a rain scenario for us with no cold air to tap into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 hopefully we can salvage this storm, cause the rest of december is not looking to hot. The mjo, going into the COD, then back into phase 4 is not a good signal for a pattern change and argues for warmer weather. Hopefully after it emerges it can get some legs and push through phase 6 and 7. The rest of the teleconnections arent horrible, neutral pna, neutral to slightly pos nao, and pos ao, but not as positive as its been. The saving grace has been the epo, which still looks to remain negative, but signs of it turning towards netral later in the period. here is the 0z euro ens from last night...not a good looking pattern, pacific zonal flow with all the cold bottled up in the arctic areas. This wouldn't be a torch until storms cut west of us, this is more slightly above normal pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM looks like a hit again; however I'm worried that it's just its bias of overamplification producing these 2 good runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM looks like a hit again; however I'm worried that it's just its bias of overamplification producing these 2 good runs in a row. it is another hit, but i wouldn't give it much thought till inside 48 hrs...with the way how the model is designed outside of 48hrs it changes a lot because its a non hydrostatic model. Baro talked about this last winter as to why it changes so much.. So one small meso slip or change has drastic differences. That being said, if the euro/gfs show some snow i think we could start a thread since their is some potential at some snow thurs morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Time sensitive -- a couple of inches verbatim north/west. Lots of temp issues at play south/east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Time sensitive -- a couple of inches verbatim north/west. Lots of temp issues at play south/east of the city. going off soundings, phl doesnt changeover till bout hr 68-69, with about half the precip falling...north and west obv go over faster with more snow accum and less bl issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nam has the qpb bomb. but as tombo noted, alot of warmth in the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 henry is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z GGEM is back on board. lmfao. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 wanted to mention this, 0z euro and 12z gfs ens show a potential threat this coming saturday with a miller b/hybrid miller b looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah getting back to the longer range, pattern doesn't look that enticing. The NAEFS probs of "normal temps" for week two are shrinking. I looked at 1956-7 which had a putrid snowfall winter but was also a weak nina. It didn't make the cut because that November was not as warm as this past one, but it too had a pretty cold January, just not that much snow fell during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah getting back to the longer range, pattern doesn't look that enticing. The NAEFS probs of "normal temps" for week two are shrinking. I looked at 1956-7 which had a putrid snowfall winter but was also a weak nina. It didn't make the cut because that November was not as warm as this past one, but it too had a pretty cold January, just not that much snow fell during it. Tony, I posted this over in the NYC thread... Some interesting developments on the models to keep an eye on in the medium range regarding that siberian blocking feature. This feature has been forecasted well in advance and is helping at least assure that the coldest air is on our side of the pole. Despite the raging +AO of late, notice on the 12z runs how it is creeping into the north pole regions or even northern Greenland on the op euro/gfs.. At least sending the AO towards neutral for a time, probably brief, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Tony, I posted this over in the NYC thread... Some interesting developments on the models to keep an eye on in the medium range regarding that siberian blocking feature. This feature has been forecasted well in advance and is helping at least assure that the coldest air is on our side of the pole. Despite the raging +AO of late, notice on the 12z runs how it is creeping into the north pole regions or even northern Greenland on the op euro/gfs.. At least sending the AO towards neutral for a time, probably brief, but something to watch. Chris, There is some stratospheric warming starting to be progged over Siberia by the EC, I just get the impression that the gfs will be too fast with this (as it normally is going in the opposite direction also). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Chris, There is some stratospheric warming starting to be progged over Siberia by the EC, I just get the impression that the gfs will be too fast with this (as it normally is going in the opposite direction also). Would this high anomaly building there have anything to do with the Eurasian snow cover theory Tony?? As for the stratosphere, HM was pointing this out to me today as well. Too fast or not, at least the sun, the stratosphere and various other signals are beginning to look a hell of a lot more encouraging moving forward...Furthermore, 67-68 is a solid analog that had the case study SSW in December, earlier than anyone ever recorded as you know..So who knows what the coming weeks will bring. I continue to like the subtle hints of blocking showing up in the 8-10 day range today...12z op euro actually looks pretty decent in the day 8-10 range in my opinion. You could even argue there is a winter storm threat with the wave moving east at days 9-10 in that pattern (as shown). Of course, we will see what tomorrows runs bring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Would this high anomaly building there have anything to do with the Eurasian snow cover theory Tony?? As for the stratosphere, HM was pointing this out to me today as well. Too fast or not, at least the sun, the stratosphere and various other signals are beginning to look a hell of a lot more encouraging moving forward...Furthermore, 67-68 is a solid analog that had the case study SSW in December, earlier than anyone ever recorded as you know..So who knows what the coming weeks will bring. I continue to like the subtle hints of blocking showing up in the 8-10 day range today...12z op euro actually looks pretty decent in the day 8-10 range in my opinion. You could even argue there is a winter storm threat with the wave moving east at days 9-10 in that pattern (as shown). Of course, we will see what tomorrows runs bring lol. Chris, Idk, the snow cover made up alot of ground at the very end of October, but October as a whole was below average. Interesting test. Obviously quite a good month of November. I was going by Wes's post that the average lifetime of these big time cold vortexes is about 60 days which would take us into early January. Allan's teleconnection page doesn't look too exciting to me, has the epo going positive again and the NAEFS week 2 anomalies if anything are edging warmer percentages deeper into the mid atlc. You know this is not my forte so if it all happens faster wouldn't be a shocker to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Chris, Idk, the snow cover made up alot of ground at the very end of October, but October as a whole was below average. Interesting test. Obviously quite a good month of November. I was going by Wes's post that the average lifetime of these big time cold vortexes is about 60 days which would take us into early January. Allan's teleconnection page doesn't look too exciting to me, has the epo going positive again and the NAEFS week 2 anomalies if anything are edging warmer percentages deeper into the mid atlc. You know this is not my forte so if it all happens faster wouldn't be a shocker to me. Fair enough. I agree with the warm shot for much of the country at some point in the next couple weeks. Especially the Plains which will probably have the warmest anomolies, but maybe this more neutral AO/NAO signal showing up will keep us more towards normal on the east coast.. and we shall see where we go from there! Don't sell youself short Tony, you know your stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like the models are having difficulty with the low pressure system moving over California next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like the models are having difficulty with the low pressure system moving over California next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like the models are having difficulty with the low pressure system moving over California next week... in terms of? strength and placement? or how it ejects out of the southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 More like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 in terms of? strength and placement? or how it ejects out of the southwest? In terms of the placement as it ejects and how the GFS doesn't appear to bring in as much moisture from the Gulf. The 00Z European creates a full latitude system across the Plains where the 00z GFS doesn't. I also thought it was strange how the GFS has the piece of energy to the north split off and move across the Plains. Didn't appear to have any moisture or any strong weather affects other than the cooler temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Fair enough. I agree with the warm shot for much of the country at some point in the next couple weeks. Especially the Plains which will probably have the warmest anomolies, but maybe this more neutral AO/NAO signal showing up will keep us more towards normal on the east coast.. and we shall see where we go from there! Don't sell youself short Tony, you know your stuff! Chris, Yeah we'll see. The NAEFS week 2 prob charts (they have been pretty good) have now enveloped PHI's CWA with above normal temps after giving us about a week of near normal temps after this cfp/low. Beyond that, the MJO still looks pretty robust on the Aussie site; its progged to hit the wall pretty soon. I see our MJO site is going to be down until Friday, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I see the Rutgers web site added the November monthly nh snow coverage data and it was the 4th snowiest on record. The three ahead were 1993 (enso neutral), 1985 (almost a weak nina) and 1973 (strong nina). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 It does'nt take much for any model to say phila will be above normal, since last feb being above normal is now the normal in the city. This year I could see some areas in the burbs of philly (especially those with elevation) getting 3 times as much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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