tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 posted this in the mid atl forum, the top analog today, for next wed night and thurs is 12.13.89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 hadn't looked at soundings (Barker's site didn't have the 6z up) and looked at the thickness map verbatim. Looked a bit warm in the lower levels through given the 540 was west while the 850 was east. I do see the 1000-850 showing a colder surface but temps are surface are still above freezing (IIRC) most everywhere except LV and Berks. Am not enthused about this to be honest...we're threading a small needle with a rather big piece of string...not an easy task. Given the GFS' tendency to flip all over the place the last few runs I'm not really buying anything of substance. Euro seems much more reasonable at this point...even if it trends a touch north and throws some sh*t into the n & w burbs. I was discussing with Jim Hayes yesterday about putting "threading the needle" in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 gfs much stronger with the shortwave traversing the country, pumping the se ridge...the cold air is also delayed do to how everything is amplified more so bringing the low further north a majority rain for everyone outside lehigh valley and pocs...LL cold ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 gfs much stronger with the shortwave traversing the country, pumping the se ridge...the cold air is also delayed do to how everything is amplified more so bringing the low further north a majority rain for everyone outside lehigh valley and pocs...LL cold ftl A model output solution like this coming along with a strongly positive nao and a pv sitting over Baffin Island is not that surprising. That being said dp/dt the last five gfs runs valid at 7 pm Thursday has given us: A 994 low 40.12/71.86W good for grill camming in the Poconos A 1006 low 36.72N/75.35W good for grill camming in Allentown A 1010 low 35.82N/72.23W good for grill camming in Rehoboth A 997 low 39.98N/68.04W good for grill camming in Boston A 978 low 46.63N/67.39W good for grill camming in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 A model output solution like this coming along with a strongly positive nao and a pv sitting over Baffin Island is not that surprising. That being said dp/dt the last five gfs runs valid at 7 pm Friday has given us: A 994 low 40.12/71.86W good for grill camming in the Poconos A 1006 low 36.72N/75.35W good for grill camming in Allentown A 1010 low 35.82N/72.23W good for grill camming in Rehoboth A 997 low 39.98N/68.04W good for grill camming in Boston A 978 low 46.63N/67.39W good for grill camming in Maine About as much consistency as Vince Young's arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 About as much consistency as Vince Young's arm. now you've gone too far in insulting the GFS. It isn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I hate to ask this personal question in this very good thread, but I'm heading back to South Carolina from the LV Wednesday morning early. I've spent two days trying to gauge sensible weather during that time frame. What is the board consensus on what I'll see from ABE to MDT to DCA to I95 south from there? Every model run provides a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 About as much consistency as Vince Young's arm. It is different to see it hang back a closed low in the desert southwest more than the Euro. That being said, yeah its been suffering in the medium range of late; last time I remember the Euro trending toward its solution vs the GFS trending toward the Euro was around Thanksgiving when the Euro had some wrap-around snow solutions into Thanksgiving Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 I hate to ask this personal question in this very good thread, but I'm heading back to South Carolina from the LV Wednesday morning early. I've spent two days trying to gauge sensible weather during that time frame. What is the board consensus on what I'll see from ABE to MDT to DCA to I95 south from there? Every model run provides a different solution. if its wed morning you will be fine any shot at frozen precip would be wed night or thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 A model output solution like this coming along with a strongly positive nao and a pv sitting over Baffin Island is not that surprising. That being said dp/dt the last five gfs runs valid at 7 pm Friday has given us: A 994 low 40.12/71.86W good for grill camming in the Poconos A 1006 low 36.72N/75.35W good for grill camming in Allentown A 1010 low 35.82N/72.23W good for grill camming in Rehoboth A 997 low 39.98N/68.04W good for grill camming in Boston A 978 low 46.63N/67.39W good for grill camming in Maine Yeah, that is pretty crazy. I guess we're gonna have to wait until early next week to get a better picture. Though, with the teleconnections the way they are I am not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It is different to see it hang back a closed low in the desert southwest more than the Euro. That being said, yeah its been suffering in the medium range of late; last time I remember the Euro trending toward its solution vs the GFS trending toward the Euro was around Thanksgiving when the Euro had some wrap-around snow solutions into Thanksgiving Day. That was not that long ago too.seams as if we are now the american models VS the forgin models The SREF'S and the NAM also hold back the shortwave and are more amplified. Only 2 runs in a row on the GFS for a hit with a storm. Lets see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 8 out of the 12 GFS ensemble members on the new 12z run have a storm hitting of some sort. 12z GGEM just in is a mess. Time to see what the euro dishes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 well something positive to follow this week other then Ray's car/mt/palm tree pic's and which met has a new snow blower/broom/shovel etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 euro holds serve. The euro is a bit more amped this run. small step towards other models. I am still not ready to part sides with any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 euro shows some flurries for se pa, looks like some lgt snow for interrior jerz, mix or rain on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 if its wed morning you will be fine any shot at frozen precip would be wed night or thurs. thanks Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 yikes, just looked at the 12z temps for next weekend, not like the last few weekends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 euro holds serve. Gotta marvel at its consistency, even its snowfall maps (light in delmarva/far se nj) hardly differed from the 00z run. Still odd on how the GFS holds back the energy more, the driving force is in Canada, not exactly poorly sampled. Its 250mb jet may have initialized slightly stronger (about 10kts) than the soundings, but its not enough to really corroborate that solution. The Euro looked about 5 kt too strong, but both would not raise an inconsistency flag really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 well something positive to follow this week other then Ray's car/mt/palm tree pic's and which met has a new snow blower/broom/shovel etc. Was that a real photo, or a photoshop work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Gotta marvel at its consistency, even its snowfall maps (light in delmarva/far se nj) hardly differed from the 00z run. Still odd on how the GFS holds back the energy more, the driving force is in Canada, not exactly poorly sampled. Its 250mb jet may have initialized slightly stronger (about 10kts) than the soundings, but its not enough to really corroborate that solution. The Euro looked about 5 kt too strong, but both would not raise an inconsistency flag really. Yeah...and that consistency is worth noting when looking at what might ultimately happen. We've had five different solutions with the GFS in the last five runs...and given its awful performance of late I can't really feel comfortable leaning into its thinking at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 verbatim, gfs is a wet snow bomb in the lns to abe zone, with some snow in the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 verbatim, gfs is a wet snow bomb in the lns to abe zone, with some snow in the burbs. ME Likes this!!! now why can't that be the Euro! I know the pattern just isn't real good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 verbatim, gfs is a wet snow bomb in the lns to abe zone, with some snow in the burbs. Yeah, it looks like this one is going to be up in the air until within 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 verbatim, gfs is a wet snow bomb in the lns to abe zone, with some snow in the burbs. correct me if im wrong, but looks like most the storm is during the day time except for the tail end? also by the looks of the gfs, could be some wet flakes in the city at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 verbatim, gfs is a wet snow bomb in the lns to abe zone, with some snow in the burbs. I love being in the jackpot 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Would prepare for an inland running rain storm. That energy in the west right now is pretty amped.If you want snow this storm is not for you unless you live well northwest of the big cities perhaps central pa. Hopefully 00z or tomorrow models pick up on how amped things currently are at H5. We may just have to wait for the actual short wave to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 correct me if im wrong, but looks like most the storm is during the day time except for the tail end? also by the looks of the gfs, could be some wet flakes in the city at the tail end. yes, it would be during the day...they may get some wet flakes, but not much...here is hr 102 skew t for phl at the end of the storm, the bl is to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Would prepare for an inland running rain storm. That energy in the west right now is pretty amped.If you want snow this storm is not for you unless you live well northwest of the big cities perhaps central pa. Hopefully 00z or tomorrow models pick up on how amped things currently are at H5. We may just have to wait for the actual short wave to develop. I don't think anyone is to excited over this setup, merely just talking about what the model shows. Just my two cents, i don't think this comes that far inland, has a better shot of escaping or brushing than a storm tracking over i95. The northern stream diving down is going to prevent this from cutting. Unless thats modelled wrong, or does a big phase i don't see a storm cutting west of philly. Not saying philly gets snow, but i dont see a wrapped up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 didn't see this posted, but the 12z euro ens for thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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