tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Hopefully this new thread will bring about a new change to the pattern. Mjo, looks to head towards warmer times for the region while the pna,ao,nao are all horrible also as of now, but do some show signs of moving towards favorable postions, minus the ao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Post-linking the JB 50/74 analog for hoots/hollars. December 50 was colder than average, December 74 was warmer. Both were mod ninas, neither was good for snow in the winter (50-51 outright sucked 4.6"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ^^ how was snow those years? Tomb, the fly in the ointment could be that cut off Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 ^^ how was snow those years? Tomb, the fly in the ointment could be that cut off Low. yea, i could see that maybe popping a brief blocking pattern, but with the mjo in the phase its at, it should be transient. Then comes the question. If we get the -nao, where is the cold air dump going to come from? With the ao being so positive, canada is only luke cold, put that over ground without a snowcover and you get seasonable temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 yea, i could see that maybe popping a brief blocking pattern, but with the mjo in the phase its at, it should be transient. Then comes the question. If we get the -nao, where is the cold air dump going to come from? With the ao being so positive, canada is only luke cold, put that over ground without a snowcover and you get seasonable temps... Yeah Hudson Bay has not frozen as of yet. Get the PV there later in the winter, its tough to dislodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Isn't the pdo state usually a 30yr average? I know we recently switched to to -PDO with the warm pool bein established in the western pacific? If so, I woulnt think It acts like an ordinary teleconnector (such as a PBS ridge or block etc.) What Ray said. Not a true teleconnector, but you'll see some correlation between a -pdo/-pna and +pdo/+pna. Its also more common to have more/stronger ninas and less/weaker ninos when the pdo is an overall negative regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Tombo, That lunch bag has to be pretty pathetic by now, probably buried underneath 10 feet of additional garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Tombo, That lunch bag has to be pretty pathetic by now, probably buried underneath 10 feet of additional garbage. then its a good description of this pattern right now which seems to be stuck in garbage dump to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I believe most of the pros who do know their stuff like Glen,Kathy and John Bolaris have said that winter won't come into play until mid to late december. This time of year below average will still not bring us snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I believe most of the pros who do know their stuff like Glen,Kathy and John Bolaris have said that winter won't come into play until mid to late december. This time of year below average will still not bring us snow anyway. if below avg can bring us snow in october, i deff think it can in december...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 if below avg can bring us snow in october, i deff think it can in december...just saying I believe our October snow was like a once in 30 year event. It seems like november has warmed up so much over the last 10 years or more that snow is becoming as rare as it is in october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I believe our October snow was like a once in 30 year event. It snowed here three years ago in October...just not "officially" at the Airport but it was snowing in Philadelphia in October 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ^^ how was snow those years? 50-51 was awful (4.6" for the winter) 74-75 was below average (13.6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It snowed here three years ago in October...just not "officially" at the Airport but it was snowing in Philadelphia in October I guess we It then seems like lately around the area October snow is as likely as november snow. Another note the airport gets a bit less snow than other parts of philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 50-51 was awful (4.6" for the winter) 74-75 was below average (13.6") Both of them had 2 of the 3 winter months with a positive NAO, the wild card in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's snowed in 12 of the last 20 Novembers (trace or more), including 5 of the last 9. It's not like it hasn't snowed in November ever (it is more frequent than October)...but yeah, it has been running much milder overall of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's snowed in 12 of the last 20 Novembers (trace or more), including 5 of the last 9. It's not like it hasn't snowed in November ever (it is more frequent than October)...but yeah, it has been running much milder overall of late. winters in general have been running much warmer...how many below normal winters have we had in the last 10 yrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 winters in general have been running much warmer...how many below normal winters have we had in the last 10 yrs? +AMO FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That's a whole other can of worms We're starting to Open up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 +AMO FTW i think last year might of had the best shot of below normal...dec and january were decently cold, but the warmth of feb might of masked that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 i think last year might of had the best shot of below normal...dec and january were decently cold, but the warmth of feb might of masked that. Cold PDO/Warm AMO is like the perfect storm for warm winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Cold PDO/Warm AMO is like the perfect storm for warm winters here. wouldn't colder phases though be more supportive of a -nao, since the cool phase usually has warmer than normal waters along the east coast into canada's eastern coast? All the big time snow years had a +pdo warm phase vs cold phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 wouldn't colder phases though be more supportive of a -nao, since the cool phase usually has warmer than normal waters along the east coast into canada's eastern coast? Warm AMOs strongly favor -NAOs. The configuration of the Pacific doesn't have much to do with the Atlantic SST pattern, imo. Any correlation is statistical noise. You have to keep in mind that a lot of this stuff is interrelated. +AMO keeps warmer ocean temps nearby, but also helps create blocking, which work counter to each other in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Warm AMOs strongly favor -NAOs. The configuration of the Pacific doesn't have much to do with the Atlantic SST pattern, imo. Any correlation is statistical noise. You have to keep in mind that a lot of this stuff is interrelated. +AMO keeps warmer ocean temps nearby, but also helps create blocking, which work counter to each other in the means. i was just going off the -pdo diagram that showed warmer water on our side, wouldn't that aid in -nao development. if i read it correctly somewhere, warmer ocean waters are magnets for trofs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 i was just going off the -pdo diagram that showed warmer water on our side, wouldn't that aid in -nao development. if i read it correctly somewhere, warmer ocean waters are magnets for trofs No, thermally, warmer ocean waters maintain upper level ridges. I have a meeting for the next couple of hours, but I can explain in more detail later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS shows no sign of a -NAO... fast zonal flow with heights and temps pending on the orientation of the PV sitting in Central/eastern canada. Pretty volitile pattern. key notes though, NO -NAO pacific firehouse is pouring in the entire conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS shows no sign of a -NAO... fast zonal flow with heights and temps pending on the orientation of the PV sitting in Central/eastern canada. Pretty volitile pattern. key notes though, NO -NAO pacific firehouse is pouring in the entire conus. Yeah, even if we get a pretty strong trough next week, It is going to be transient with no blocking available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 +AMO FTW Are you saying the +AMO is causing warmer than normal winters or colder than normal winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Are you saying the +AMO is causing warmer than normal winters or colder than normal winters? Warmer than normal winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 i think last year might of had the best shot of below normal...dec and january were decently cold, but the warmth of feb might of masked that. Tom, Last winter overall did average about 1.8F colder than the 1971-2000 normals. While Feb was warmer, December and January combined were colder than normal, December by nearly 5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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