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Central PA Thread


Eskimo Joe

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Our weatherbug station and the "official" anemometer is on the roof above the wxcenter... our heated precip. gauge with wind blocking and stevenson screen is away from the building in a grassy area.

Ah ok. It's been years since I was over there, but I'm familiar with the area.

Heater for my gauge is next for my attempt at an accurate PWS on the cheap. I've actually gotten everything adjusted to pass MADIS QC from my fine offset station (sub-$200), and it correlates nicely with KLNS. temp is usually within 1/2 of a degree.

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I'm pretty sure it's the result of melting snow aloft. The melted water clings to the partially melted flake, which results in a much higher reflectivity than a normal snowflake or raindrop. But the real precipitation intensity is much less than the radar dbz value. At the surface, and especially at lower elevations, snow or rain/snow mix could be relatively light. Higher up it's likely to be the large aggregate parachute variety. Immediately to the NW of the bright banding is where the accumulating snow should begin.

Thanks. It already changed to snow earlier but it mixed back with rain for a while.

Yea eduggs you are likely correct with your explanation. Jamie we were really banking on a heavy period of snow to get to advisory accumulations and we may have lost our best forcing to the east that would actually enhance rates to where we can fully get the good snowfall down to our elevations.

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Back edge is approaching quickly. Areas where the heavier returns are and to the east still have a chance for some accumulation. This storm just had upset written all over it. Too many things had to come together for this to be a widespread significant storm. The lack of cold air was/is the killer.

Latest HRRR (21z) is clearly too far west with the bulk of the precipitation.

Forecast (for 6pm):

post-1406-0-60568600-1323301539.png

Actual (6:08pm):

post-1406-0-95629200-1323301396.png

Kudos to the GFS for picking the storm up earliest and nailing the timing, and temperatures. (correct me if I'm wrong but I think that's the case).

Also, the HRRR is composite, not base reflectivity.

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Anyone is State College? Looks like it is really coming down now.

Only light snow. Nothing like it was during the 4pm hour. I don't have my snowboard up here, but have an inch on the car top. Roads/sidewalks have only been slushy. Other than the 4pm hour, snowfall rates have been pretty disappointing. Looks like were going to finish much sooner than expected.

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Going to be a major bust in Altoona - mostly rain falling and 35. Nothing on the ground. poster_oops.gif

Haha ugh.

Progressive nature of this system didn't help matters, but lack of preceding cold and wasting all that qpf in the form of rain beforehand really hurt. Have you had any reports from the Laurels?

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Haha ugh.

Progressive nature of this system didn't help matters, but lack of preceding cold and wasting all that qpf in the form of rain beforehand really hurt. Have you had any reports from the Laurels?

Got a report of 5" on Blue Knob at 5:00pm, so they probably got 7" or 8". Got a report out of Cambria County of 4" at 5:30p. Forecast should verify fine on the ridges, but certainly not in the valleys.

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