JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Been away from the computer this afternoon, really itching to post haha. Anyways, I think folks worrying about rain cutting markedly into snow amounts especially in the lower Susquehanna valley are legitimate in their concerns. This storm, as has been noted by alot of folks including myself has some parallels to our October storm. However there is one major difference that is probably going to have ramifications for our southeastern folks. When we had the October snowstorm, what really made the storm work was the fact we had the kicker system a couple days prior that established an unseasonably cold airmass and pretty much preset everything almost ideally to make for what seemed like a typical December/Jan snowstorm in its ease (considering time of year) of delivering sig snow to folks in the Sus Valley and of course up into New England. This one will not have that, as we will have to see how well the frontal boundary presses as the wave rides up. Getting the cold efficiently past the Apps into the southeastern zones can be a slow process, thus rain might not turn to snow until the dynamics of this storm kick in when it deepens. If this setup presented itself for the late October system, alot of areas that had half decent snow probably would've gotten all rain. Fortunately, it's December..so we should be talking accululating snow at some point in the game for everyone that gets the QPF..the question is how long does it take to turn over. So I see it as a couple options, if the storm ends up backing east and focuses a snow axis from say MDT to ABE and points north/northeast of there.. than yea this is probably going to be more of a widespread 3-4 incher at best with higher spots cracking 6" or so and Pocono's high ground perhaps doing much better than that. The placement might be OK but the issue of getting the cold there in time will remain. If this storm continues the way of what the 18z NAM just threw out, than the heavy snow axis could be the JST/AOO/UNV/IPT corridor or most likely just southeast of that line. If heavy QPF gets focused on these areas, they won't have as much trouble turning over, especially JST and the laurels..where the cold air will get there first and then should bleed relatively easily into the western ridge and valley locations. If the .75-1.00 inch line can indeed work that far back, we could be talking a 6-10 inch event for the axis of heaviest with highest Laurels doing better than that. Thanks for this. I am enthused but I do feel bad for our friends to our southeast. Are you seeing any current weather trends of interest, as in progress of cold air east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Model have it getting to the 40's here by 2-3 am lets see if that happens sooner, later or right on time. Currently at 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take GFS ENS for 1 Million please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take GFS ENS for 1 Million please. I was just about to post that. And with 850s at or below 0C for the entire time (see 850s at hr 24) for UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Anybody have accuwx pro or Stormvista? Believe they have the 2m GEFS plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Man if only that GEFS image could come true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Some good members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take GFS ENS for 1 Million please. If by some impossible odds that occurred, I would quit this board for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If by some impossible odds that occurred, I would quit this board for a month. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Um yes please. Most if not all members better than OP. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf036.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 If by some impossible odds that occurred, I would quit this board for a month. For the record, out of rage, not pleasure. I'm trying to go to Pittsburgh Friday and just do not want snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 For the record, out of rage, not pleasure. I'm trying to go to Pittsburgh Friday and just do not want snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Um yes please. Most if not all members better than OP. http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf036.html I posted this is the midatl thread not too long ago when someone referenced these maps. The resolution there is very poor... spreading out the precip quite a bit. Snowfall maps can be quite inaccurate themselves... but snow maps for the GEFS are pretty much useless. Fun to look at nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I posted this is the midatl thread not too long ago when someone referenced these maps. The resolution there is very poor... spreading out the precip quite a bit. Snowfall maps can be quite inaccurate themselves... but snow maps for the GEFS are pretty much useless. Fun to look at nonetheless. It shows that the members are colder then the OP and more precip thrown back. Hopefully a good sign for 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What time do the 0z's come out? I always forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What time do the 0z's come out? I always forget. NAM at about 8:40 p.m. GFS at about 10:40 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What time do the 0z's come out? I always forget. Start looking at about 8:35 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Finally got to look at the 18z NAM bufkit files.. I know were all talking about a quick change over but it is certainly possible that we have a period of snow pellets before it finally changes over near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Finally got to look at the 18z NAM bufkit files.. I know were all talking about a quick change over but it is certainly possible that we have a period of snow pellets before it finally changes over near the end. Speaking of BUFKIT, are the custom ones from this place ready yet? Can't seem to find the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Good start to the night. The Mag page is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam looks bad for just about everyone...too warm where there is precip, and almost no precip where it is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam looks bad for just about everyone...too warm where there is precip, and almost no precip where it is cold enough for snow. That won't take place till after the low get going. No real changes though 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam looks bad for just about everyone...too warm where there is precip, and almost no precip where it is cold enough for snow. That's yellow in PA appears to be snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Winner JST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam looks bad for just about everyone...too warm where there is precip, and almost no precip where it is cold enough for snow. Patience young padawan. That's all pre event. This run actually looks a hair colder than 18z...IMO anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Um wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It is a tad warmer to start but then..boooooommmm the low explodes! colder this run and more qpf on backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Patience young padawan. That's all pre event. This run actually looks a hair colder than 18z...IMO anyways. Whoa....look at you getting all Jedi. It does look a hair colder and a lot more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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