EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Less precip I am hearing. But I was wrong yesterday. Defiantly more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z euro has mostly snow and about .5 to .7 qpf from IPT-UNV-AOO-JST East/South of there, lots of rain to start, then mixing with and changing to snow. .3 to .4 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Less precip I am hearing. But I was wrong yesterday. From 18Z Wed to 12Z Thur, for you it has .62, for UNV it has .51, so I think it's about the same up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z ECMWF output for KMDT? I cannot check on my phone. 18z Wed - +8.4 C at surface, 4.0 C at 850mb, .29" 0z Thur - +6.7 C at surface, 2.0 C at 850mb, .46" 6z Thur - +1.9 C at surface, -3.1 C at 850mb, .80" 12z Thur - +.4 C at surface, -6.4 C at 850mb, .06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z ECMWF output for KMDT? I cannot check on my phone. Temperature Surface 700MB QPF Heights DATE/TIME 2M 850MB Pres. RH RH TUE 12Z 06-DEC 14.0 8.5 1018 97 93 0.00 571 556 TUE 18Z 06-DEC 14.9 8.7 1016 97 97 0.14 570 557 WED 00Z 07-DEC 14.5 8.8 1014 97 82 0.19 569 557 WED 06Z 07-DEC 13.1 8.2 1013 98 51 0.07 566 555 WED 12Z 07-DEC 9.2 5.4 1013 97 99 0.20 564 553 WED 18Z 07-DEC 8.4 4.0 1010 95 100 0.29 562 553 THU 00Z 08-DEC 6.7 2.0 1006 97 100 0.46 556 551 THU 06Z 08-DEC 1.9 -3.1 1007 99 87 0.80 543 538 THU 12Z 08-DEC 0.4 -6.4 1017 66 9 0.06 551 537 THU 18Z 08-DEC 3.7 -4.3 1021 52 3 0.00 558 541 FRI 00Z 09-DEC 0.2 -3.5 1026 67 9 0.00 561 540 Looks like precip is more expansive on the NW side. Here is State College for those interested (12z euro)... Temperature Surface 700MB QPF Heights DATE/TIME 2M 850MB Pres. RH RH TUE 18Z 06-DEC 12.6 7.3 1015 97 91 0.13 567 555 WED 00Z 07-DEC 10.2 7.2 1015 98 59 0.09 565 553 WED 06Z 07-DEC 7.6 5.2 1015 97 9 0.02 563 551 WED 12Z 07-DEC 5.7 2.1 1014 97 88 0.04 561 549 WED 18Z 07-DEC 5.2 0.6 1012 95 96 0.10 557 548 THU 00Z 08-DEC 2.2 -0.8 1009 99 95 0.25 551 544 THU 06Z 08-DEC -0.7 -6.6 1012 84 78 0.27 543 534 THU 12Z 08-DEC -2.4 -9.3 1018 70 5 0.00 549 535 THU 18Z 08-DEC 0.8 -6.3 1022 59 5 0.00 555 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here is the best hour on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Temperature Surface 700MB QPF Heights DATE/TIME 2M 850MB Pres. RH RH TUE 12Z 06-DEC 14.0 8.5 1018 97 93 0.00 571 556 TUE 18Z 06-DEC 14.9 8.7 1016 97 97 0.14 570 557 WED 00Z 07-DEC 14.5 8.8 1014 97 82 0.19 569 557 WED 06Z 07-DEC 13.1 8.2 1013 98 51 0.07 566 555 WED 12Z 07-DEC 9.2 5.4 1013 97 99 0.20 564 553 WED 18Z 07-DEC 8.4 4.0 1010 95 100 0.29 562 553 THU 00Z 08-DEC 6.7 2.0 1006 97 100 0.46 556 551 THU 06Z 08-DEC 1.9 -3.1 1007 99 87 0.80 543 538 THU 12Z 08-DEC 0.4 -6.4 1017 66 9 0.06 551 537 THU 18Z 08-DEC 3.7 -4.3 1021 52 3 0.00 558 541 FRI 00Z 09-DEC 0.2 -3.5 1026 67 9 0.00 561 540 Looks like precip is more expansive on the NW side. Here is State College for those interested (12z euro)... Temperature Surface 700MB QPF Heights DATE/TIME 2M 850MB Pres. RH RH TUE 18Z 06-DEC 12.6 7.3 1015 97 91 0.13 567 555 WED 00Z 07-DEC 10.2 7.2 1015 98 59 0.09 565 553 WED 06Z 07-DEC 7.6 5.2 1015 97 9 0.02 563 551 WED 12Z 07-DEC 5.7 2.1 1014 97 88 0.04 561 549 WED 18Z 07-DEC 5.2 0.6 1012 95 96 0.10 557 548 THU 00Z 08-DEC 2.2 -0.8 1009 99 95 0.25 551 544 THU 06Z 08-DEC -0.7 -6.6 1012 84 78 0.27 543 534 THU 12Z 08-DEC -2.4 -9.3 1018 70 5 0.00 549 535 THU 18Z 08-DEC 0.8 -6.3 1022 59 5 0.00 555 537 KHGR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z euro has mostly snow and about .5 to .7 qpf from IPT-UNV-AOO-JST East/South of there, lots of rain to start, then mixing with and changing to snow. .3 to .4 frozen Please say the higher elevations escape the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Temps major issue for KMDT in the Euro too if I'm looking correctly. Might be .3" frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It was all so beautiful... and now it's gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The dangers of a +NAO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It was all so beautiful... and now it's gone... Don't start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 A lot has to go right for this storm. Very complicated situation, and usually that's not a great thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Please say the higher elevations escape the rain... Yeah.... above 1200' and north of MDT-ABE should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 First call on some numbers. IPT: 1-3" UNV: 1-3" JST: 4-7" AOO: 3-6" HGR: 2-4" MDT: 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 JST do you have a qpf for southern lycoming county. Edit: Sorry just saw Jamie posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 JST do you have a qpf for southern lycoming county. Edit: Sorry just saw Jamie posted it. About .75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The dangers of a +NAO regime. We can get snow during a +NAO especially when it's on the move. Good example is 2002-2003: Prior to the Xmas Day storm it surged positive and it was positive leading up to the PDII storm. It was also positive right before the 12/5 storm that year. Of course, it's forecasted to drop but hasn't yet so this is a bit diff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GEFS mean is also very close to the OP Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 before a big freak out over temps I just want to throw my 2 cents in here for things to be cautious about that I have noticed lately 1) here is a link to MOS errors... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MOSERR_CURRENT/framecur.html MOS has been generally running too warm where the cold air is right now... this link too http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DEPHR/last.html is quite telling just how unusually deep the cold air is over the midwest this early in december 2) NAM has temperatures rise a couple degrees during the day tomorrow for MDT... recently when we have had fronts move through and highs for the day recorded just after midnight, NAM and GFS have not handled daytime temperatures well and have wanted to show some warming that never did not occur. With such cold air to the west and winds bringing the cold air east one has to wonder if forecast temps are currently too warm or not. 3) In Harrisburg for the late October snow event, temperatures never fell below 32 F... with heavy precip rates (as long as cold enough aloft) and nighttime hours... places could easily see the changeover to snow that the models are currently projecting as rain. 4) Dew point temperatures - are expected to fall during day tomorrow so that will be one aspect of nowcasting to follow tomorrow to see how fast and how far they fall from where they are today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am up at school at Cornell for atmospheric sciences. Anyways up here in Ithaca temperatures have been running in the upper 30s which is cooler than MOS guidance for a high up here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 before a big freak out over temps I just want to throw my 2 cents in here for things to be cautious about that I have noticed lately 1) here is a link to MOS errors... http://www.meteo.psu...T/framecur.html MOS has been generally running too warm where the cold air is right now... this link too http://www.meteo.psu...DEPHR/last.html is quite telling just how unusually deep the cold air is over the midwest this early in december 2) NAM has temperatures rise a couple degrees during the day tomorrow for MDT... recently when we have had fronts move through and highs for the day recorded just after midnight, NAM and GFS have not handled daytime temperatures well and have wanted to show some warming that never did not occur. With such cold air to the west and winds bringing the cold air east one has to wonder if forecast temps are currently too warm or not. 3) In Harrisburg for the late October snow event, temperatures never fell below 32 F... with heavy precip rates (as long as cold enough aloft) and nighttime hours... places could easily see the changeover to snow that the models are currently projecting as rain. 4) Dew point temperatures - are expected to fall during day tomorrow so that will be one aspect of nowcasting to follow tomorrow to see how fast and how far they fall from where they are today. Good stuff. Yeah, this is going to be a nightmare to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 before a big freak out over temps I just want to throw my 2 cents in here for things to be cautious about that I have noticed lately 1) here is a link to MOS errors... http://www.meteo.psu...T/framecur.html MOS has been generally running too warm where the cold air is right now... this link too http://www.meteo.psu...DEPHR/last.html is quite telling just how unusually deep the cold air is over the midwest this early in december 2) NAM has temperatures rise a couple degrees during the day tomorrow for MDT... recently when we have had fronts move through and highs for the day recorded just after midnight, NAM and GFS have not handled daytime temperatures well and have wanted to show some warming that never did not occur. With such cold air to the west and winds bringing the cold air east one has to wonder if forecast temps are currently too warm or not. 3) In Harrisburg for the late October snow event, temperatures never fell below 32 F... with heavy precip rates (as long as cold enough aloft) and nighttime hours... places could easily see the changeover to snow that the models are currently projecting as rain. 4) Dew point temperatures - are expected to fall during day tomorrow so that will be one aspect of nowcasting to follow tomorrow to see how fast and how far they fall from where they are today. True story. NAM has PIT at 46 right now and it is only 41 there now. 5 degrees makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 CTP issues a Winter Storm Watch for Somerset and Schuylkill counties: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ctp&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 no matter, we got some good knowledgeable people ( not me) posting here in our lil Pa thread. good stuff guys and thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Very, very tricky situation. Glad I'm not forecasting it. Cannot wait for my drive to class Thursday...hopefully a little snow to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 CTP issues a Winter Storm Watch for Somerset and Schuylkill counties: http://forecast.weat...20storm%20watch Weird looking map, but makes sense. Point and click says 1-2" for UNV, sounds reasonable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Final Guesses(and I'm terrible at it, but its fun) IPT: t to 2 AVP: 2 to 3 MDT:1 to 3 HGR: 2 to 3 UNV: 1 to 3 AOO 2 to 5 JST 3 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Final Guesses(and I'm terrible at it, but its fun) IPT: t to 2 AVP: 2 to 3 MDT:1 to 3 HGR: 2 to 3 UNV: 1 to 3 AOO 2 to 5 JST 3 to 6 I hope you double your snowfall forecast at your place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So where does LNS stand in all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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