Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 is the ukie out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 is the ukie out yet? Ya like gfs but precip goes a bit more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am thinking something like 3-6 inches for the Valley with more on the hills/ridges! Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is very warm for LSV. Something to keep in mind. Barely gets 1-2in for KMDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Patriot-News reporting to expect .5" in the midstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 this storm is a bit of a mess. where there is ample precip there is rain issues, while back in the colder air theres barely any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm beginning to worry about temperatures being a larger issue than most people are thinking. Even back here in State College, neither the GFS nor NAM text output is showing anything other than RA/SN mix at best. Also, that same output is already busting 3 degrees lower than what it is outside now. The RGEM precip type is mostly rain until late in the storm when colder air can enter the area. What we traded off by getting more precipitation, we will have to battle very marginal temperatures since the storm is now arriving earlier than expected. Even high elevations may not see all snow. Let's continue to monitor the models and keep an eye on temperature trends. GFS and NAM text output http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kunv RGEM/GGEM ptype: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 great points jmister! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm beginning to worry about temperatures being a larger issue than most people are thinking. Even back here in State College, neither the GFS nor NAM text output is showing anything other than RA/SN mix at best. Also, that same output is already busting 3 degrees lower than what it is outside now. The RGEM precip type is mostly rain until late in the storm when colder air can enter the area. What we traded off by getting more precipitation, we will have to battle very marginal temperatures since the storm is now arriving earlier than expected. Even high elevations may not see all snow. Let's continue to monitor the models and keep an eye on temperature trends. GFS and NAM text output http://www.meteor.ia...l=gfs&site=kunv RGEM/GGEM ptype: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html RGEM is always way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 someone in another thread compared this to the storm we had Dec 5, 2002. I say no way, i think we had good cold in place prior to that storm. In fact my notes show us having 1.5" on November 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah but you can't ignore the warmth in this setup. I know you're a snow lover and trust me I am too, but you have to be realistic too. If nothing changes, I would expect a slushy inch or two of accumulation on the backside at best in most places below ~1300 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah but you can't ignore the warmth in this setup. I know you're a snow lover and trust me I am too, but you have to be realistic too. If nothing changes, I would expect a slushy inch or two of accumulation on the backside at best in most places below ~1300 feet. When it is snowing at 1" per hr it will start sticking pretty quick. JB with his 6-12" totals though.. he is must be smoking some crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 these posts of 6"+ for susq valley are just plain overblown IMHO. I say no way, and I'll eat the crow if wrong. This is a slop fest special at best 2-4" for my 880' elevation. Down at river level has hardly any chance to verify over 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 DT's first call map http://www.wxrisk.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 A few adjustment and we get smashed though. Some of the GFS ENS are just plain wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Current obs: 61 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Current obs: 61 and rain Toasty there. 56 and rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 From OCT event thanks to i4net weather 27th: Cloudy today high 60 F. Some light rain during the morning and a few more showers during the afternoon .08" fell. MODERATE FROST LOW 33 F 28th: Low of 33 F. this morning with moderate frost. Partly cloudy today high 48 F. Light rain during the evening .06" **RECORD OCTOBER SNOWFALL 3.7" - FIRST FREEZE OF SEASON 29th: Rain overnight began changing to snow around 8am and became all snow by 9am. Wet snow fell all day and was moderate to heavy at times especially during the afternoon. Most of the snow ended by 6pm with a total of 3.7". This is a new October record for most snow from a storm and for most snow in the month of October. The previous record was in 1925 when 2.8" fell on the 30th. In 1940 on the 19th 1.3” fell. The last time we had any measurable snow in October was in 1979 it was only 0.1" on the 10th for earliest measurable snow ever. Some nearby areas recieved over 7" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 59 and moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 57 no rain atm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow JB is going hard! Essentially, he has 3 inches from just N/W of DC northeast to just N/W of Philly to NYC to BOS, back to like Pittsburgh on northeast. Inside that is a 6-12 inch band from northeastern KY through WV south-central PA, lower susquehanna valley, poconos, southern New England into Maine. Inside that band is up to 12+" in the moutains of WV, MD, and southern PA, and picks up again in the Poconos through upstate NY and western Mass. He is on crack. Male or female? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 1pm temperature obs. This is a free program called weatherscope. Very useful and neat tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z ECMWF output for KMDT? I cannot check on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro is pretty good this run. Probably a widespread 2-4" with 3-6" amounts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I saw both WTAJ and WJAC while at the gym. WTAJ: Not really sure, track uncertain WJAC: Heavy rain SE of State College, a few snow showers or a burst of snow Wed night from "the upper level low moving through" (not sure what that meant), no big deal anywhere outside of the Laurels where there might be a small accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is ECMWF boundary layer temperatures too warm? Looks like low is a bit more tucked trying to look at this on the phone. 12z GFS meteograms only print out an inch or so for KMDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro is pretty good this run. Probably a widespread 2-4" with 3-6" amounts as well. Is colder also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I saw both WTAJ and WJAC while at the gym. WTAJ: Not really sure, track uncertain WJAC: Heavy rain SE of State College, a few snow showers or a burst of snow Wed night from "the upper level low moving through" (not sure what that meant), no big deal anywhere outside of the Laurels where there might be a small accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is ECMWF boundary layer temperatures too warm? Looks like low is a bit more tucked trying to look at this on the phone. 12z GFS meteograms only print out an inch or so for KMDT. In general, yes. This run idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Less precip I am hearing. But I was wrong yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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