EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's an insane run. Anyone want to weigh in? Everything was saying since it was going to the right it was having a tight prep gradient. But, it goes right up the coast. Think it is too tight. Most of the GFS ENS and UKMET have ample precip. We shall see what GFS does in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's an insane run. Anyone want to weigh in? I think the NAM, being the 'convective and high-resolution model' it is, is attempting to key in some dynamic/convective precipitation. In doing so, I believe it is too high on the QPF output, hence the high snow totals. But history has shown us this fall that such a system can occur, and with the warm ocean waters underneath a potent mid level s/wv, it might not be too far from the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 qpf field nudges NW just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I would love to be a fly on the wall in CTP, LWX, PHI today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's an insane run. Anyone want to weigh in? Looks like it made a slight shift to the NW inside of 36 hours, then it starts to lose the storm to the right. With what I said earlier, I still think this comes a little further west and the precip shield expands west a bit as well, then it continues into NE instead of just brushing the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I would love to be a fly on the wall in CTP, LWX, PHI today. Oh, most def. Especially CTP. I don't envy the job they have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Oh, most def. Especially CTP. I don't envy the job they have right now. I'll say watches by 233 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm I correct in assuming that the GFS is further east than the Nam. Also just wondering how far into the event are we going to see change over? Eastern WOW 57 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Oh, most def. Especially CTP. I don't envy the job they have right now. Neither do I. It really bothers me when people start bashing an office just because a 4th or 5th period watch won't be issued. There are ramifications of such products with respect to local DOTs, OEMs, etc. when such products are issued so it's not something as simple as just issuing the alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm I correct in assuming that the GFS is further east than the Nam. Also just wondering how far into the event are we going to see change over? yeah, i was wondering that too. How much of that qbf is rain then snow. One thing for sure, Harrisburg is continuing to pad its record rain toatal. We had a decent soak over night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm I correct in assuming that the GFS is further east than the Nam. Also just wondering how far into the event are we going to see change over? Eastern WOW 57 degrees yeah, it was 55 this am at 6 when i let the dog out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yeah, i was wondering that too. How much of that qbf is rain then snow. One thing for sure, Harrisburg is continuing to pad its record rain toatal. We had a decent soak over night There seems to be a fair amount of precip down your way after the 850s crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Spread that band a bit more west and i'll be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like it made a slight shift to the NW inside of 36 hours, then it starts to lose the storm to the right. With what I said earlier, I still think this comes a little further west and the precip shield expands west a bit as well, then it continues into NE instead of just brushing the coastal plain. Yeah, starting to think we get 2-4....maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Temps are a big issue on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I feel more comfortable here in State College than being farther south/east, and at a lower elevation. The Euro last night showed how a big shift could actually cause a lot of temp issues to our east, and even in our vicinity. I'd bet CTP issues watches either tonight or tomorrow, with Centre county being about the farthest northwest they go. As you guys have said, with this complicated setup we shouldn't blame them for holding off until they're sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Temps are a big issue on the NAM. How so? Text has me at 31.9 with .7" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Broke my laptop so I've been stuck using my droid for updates on this storm through this thread...great job all...very informative. I can't tell on my phone but does the nam look warm for lns? It looks like we get slammed with qpf but borderline temp wise. Also anyone have any good weather model apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I feel more comfortable here in State College than being farther south/east, and at a lower elevation. The Euro last night showed how a big shift could actually cause a lot of temp issues to our east, and even in our vicinity. I'd bet CTP issues watches either tonight or tomorrow, with Centre county being about the farthest northwest they go. As you guys have said, with this complicated setup we shouldn't blame them for holding off until they're sure. I'll take the higher elevations of western Adams County on this one. With elevations of 1400ft up to 2000ft, this area always cashes in on these types of events with 13.5" recorded there during the October event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take the higher elevations of western Adams County on this one. With elevations of 1400ft up to 2000ft, this area always cashes in on these types of events with 13.5" recorded there during the October event. Yeah, i would think you would do well there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take the higher elevations of western Adams County on this one. With elevations of 1400ft up to 2000ft, this area always cashes in on these types of events with 13.5" recorded there during the October event. One of my favorite areas of the world, Adams County. Welcome. I know the area pretty well having grown up in York; used to go fishing a lot in Adams County. How so? Text has me at 31.9 with .7" qpf. I was thinking more east of you. Broke my laptop so I've been stuck using my droid for updates on this storm through this thread...great job all...very informative. I can't tell on my phone but does the nam look warm for lns? It looks like we get slammed with qpf but borderline temp wise. Also anyone have any good weather model apps? I have a Droid and would be interested. My eyes are going bad from staring at non-mobile web sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take the higher elevations of western Adams County on this one. With elevations of 1400ft up to 2000ft, this area always cashes in on these types of events with 13.5" recorded there during the October event. True enough. While I always thought 1200' was a decent elevation I got a lesson in Oct, when a few hundred feet made a world of difference. But now that we're in December with lower sun angle and colder temps (and some of the snow should come at night) I feel a lot more comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Am I glad to be at PSU-Hazleton for this one...over 1500ft ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Broke my laptop so I've been stuck using my droid for updates on this storm through this thread...great job all...very informative. I can't tell on my phone but does the nam look warm for lns? It looks like we get slammed with qpf but borderline temp wise. Also anyone have any good weather model apps? NAM is rain to snow for LNS/MDT/etc as temperatures fall just like how storm in October started out. Will be interesting to monitor dew point temperatures during the day tomorrow to see how soon they fall to low 30s. NAM may have temps in mid/upper 30s around here early on tomorrow night. If cold enough for snow aloft, again like in October we don't have to have temps below 32 for snow with heavy snowfall rates/evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 CTP using "moderate accum" wording in their text forecast for adams sounding promising. Yes Adams County is a nice area of the state. Thanks to orchards and the battlefield, the county has not been developed like so many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The airmass in front of this thing is putrid, but the low getting going and everyone's inland location should be enough to transition many over to snow fairly quickly. I think almost everyone save maybe the highest elevations near I-81 start as rain and then transition over when the heavy precip develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Slightly off topic but SNE is having a collective mental breakdown right now...I feel bad that they likely won't get a storm out of this but at least we tend to have class! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dumb question, but sleet isn't an issue here correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Slightly off topic but SNE is having a collective mental breakdown right now...I feel bad that they likely won't get a storm out of this but at least we tend to have class! They always get nailed. It is our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dumb question, but sleet isn't an issue here correct? No it is either rain or snow. No worries of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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