Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hr 54, low is offshore, but heaviest precip skirts to the south and east of Central PA. Looks like THV and LNS still get some form of measurable precip though. Goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well guess we need to wait till tomorrow for it to fold. On to UKMET and EURO. CMC likely like NAM as RGEM was about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS holds serve...same as 18z and 12z...one question though....why is it making such a hard right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS holds serve...same as 18z and 12z...one question though....why is it making such a hard right? It is a bit north by maybe 10-25 miles. And it looks to have some issue at H5. It crushes the vort unlike the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 UKMET says Central PA win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 first guesses: IPT: 0 UNV:0 HGR: 2-3 MDT:2-4 LNS:2-5 AVP: 1-2 AOO: t to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 For the most part, this is a map of how many climate divisions we have in PA. The red outlines are the general areas where the weather is drastically different, but of course is subject to individual patterns. The black/orange line is the general outline for Nor Easter type systems. I have a few different outcomes with the black/orange outline for mainly the diffence between eastern sliders, closer tracks to the coast, and benchmark. Now I realise the Nor Easters can throw precip further back towards the west but the orange outlines dictate where the best likelyhood and chance of occurance greater than 4" of snow. In the blue shadings is where the greatest likelyhood of Lake Effect events set up, and I know I left ouf the laurals and Pittsburgh areas because I'm not exactly sure where the boundaries typically set up for them. This is why the most of the posters outside these orange lines try to tell you guys were aren't favored for Nor Easter type of events, not really complaining. I made 13 general climate sections within PA, and I'm sure I could make some adjustments and you guys could help me out with that. Out of all the general climate sections I made, I feel bad for 6,7,9 and 7,9 is by far the worst place to live if you are a weather enthusiast because you are just on the outside of lake effect events and miss the most of Nor Easters and borderline on WAA events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 lol...IPT is basically what you named Potter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 lol...IPT is basically what you named Potter. I know and I feel bad for you guys the most, this area extends into Renovo, Emporium and in general the river low lying region which is climate division 7. Lycoming, Clinton, Cameron, and southern Potter county sucks for winter. To an extent Tioga sucks to but they have latitude on their side and do better in WAA events. My area kinda sucks to because we don't get major Nor Easter storms unless its 93' or something close and the major lake effect misses me aka nickle dimed. But WAA is what saves me in region 12. The reason I have part of Potter in region 8 is because of the big diffence in elevation gives them a little more lake effect than me at times and they do alot better in some Nor Easters and WAA events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS ENS says fu op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS and NAM don't really surprise me with their respective solutions at this timeframe. GFS ensembles should be interesting. NAM goes from like .1 or so at UNV to 1.5" at MDT (bout 80 miles distance).. don't really think shields gonna be quite that tight. Otherwise NAM has a pretty nice low placement. Its like a broken record lately with hashing out these same details in the same corridor of PA. Def some parallels to the Oct 28th/29th storm...and I'll be riding the low tracking near/on the coastline train just like I did on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS and NAM don't really surprise me with their respective solutions at this timeframe. GFS ensembles should be interesting. NAM goes from like .1 or so at UNV to 1.5" at MDT (bout 80 miles distance).. don't really think shields gonna be quite that tight. Otherwise NAM has a pretty nice low placement. Its like a broken record lately with hashing out these same details in the same corridor of PA. Def some parallels to the Oct 28th/29th storm...and I'll be riding the low tracking near/on the coastline train just like I did on that one. It is out and impressive. See above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here is my first call. Final call tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 0Z EURO: SELI @ 54hrs From the NYC thread^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 0Z EURO: SELI @ 54hrs From the NYC thread^ Central PA smashing this run. See NE guys don't give up! MAG you got some numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SELI means cutoff of us up north...but I'm living this one vicariously through you guys! Love your attitude eastern! Optimistic, yet realistic...hope it sets up where South Cent. PA knocks off the NWNJ and Conn. as jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If I had to guess the numbers...ABE to MDT .3...AVP .2....UNV, IPT .05...and HGR like .4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Central PA smashing this run. See NE guys don't give up! MAG you got some numbers? workin on it, only to thur at 0z attm here. Just watchin my local one (AOO) already looks like bigger qpf. 850s dip below zero and 6 hr precip 0.23 in that Thur 0z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Initial QPF off the Euro looks juicy, and pretty far north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like half inch line runs from IPT - UNV - AOO - JST. Over 1" for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like half inch line runs from IPT - UNV - AOO - JST. Over 1" for MDT. Is this snow wise or just total qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Is this snow wise or just total qpf? QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 QPF How much of that is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 PSU or MAG...do you guys have a gut feel on this one? The last few have made a late correction east...do you think this could happen again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 alright, AOO, JST, UNV, and IPT are all in the 0.5" QPF range. HGR seems to have a few periods of moderate QPF as rain followed by a 6 hour period with a whopping 0.54 QPF with 850s cool enough MDT at least .7" with temps marginal for snow another 0.8 beforehand on wed AVP at least .8" frozen FIG 0.3" PIT 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 PSU or MAG...do you guys have a gut feel on this one? The last few have made a late correction east...do you think this could happen again? Given the history in recent years, we are in the period now where the models correct west, and then they try to correct a bit east within about 24 hours. Although if memory serves me correctly, they overcorrected back to the east in the October storm. That being said, I still can't say I have a good feel of this one. The strange, very long vort max is very impressive, but I wonder how well the models are handling it. I still feel the potential for significant shifts in track from here on out because of that. There is a lot of energy to play with here, and until this whole thing begins to evolve, I think there is going to be a lot of uncertainty to where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 alright, AOO, JST, UNV, and IPT are all in the 0.5" QPF range. HGR seems to have a few periods of moderate QPF as rain followed by a 6 hour period with a whopping 0.54 QPF with 850s cool enough MDT at least .7" with temps marginal for snow another 0.8 beforehand on wed AVP at least .8" frozen FIG 0.3" PIT 0.2" Sounds good. I like my 3-6" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow, the Euro made a fairly significant jump north overnight. 06z GFS moving north a nudge as well. I wonder if we will see this again at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ctp taking about wsw for later. 6z gfs came north and will continue to do so at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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