Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a FSU product but Ryan Maue's site is down for me. Got it, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Got it, thanks! Got it as in you find them? Or got it as in information received? lol If you found them, by all means; please link away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Got it as in you find them? Or got it as in information received? lol If you found them, by all means; please link away. Did not find them yet, but you pointed me in the right direction. That is exactly what I needed, well that plus a and a nice 12 hour siesta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Did not find them yet, but you pointed me in the right direction. That is exactly what I needed, well that plus a and a nice 12 hour siesta. Hopefully that's the right source. Sure looks like a FSU plot to me. Wonder if the GFS/UKMET temp profiles are the way to go here. There is just no low level cold feed into the storm. Starting to think the NAM is creating all the snow through pure dynamics as it has the best H5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hopefully that's the right source. Sure looks like a FSU plot to me. Wonder if the GFS/UKMET temp profiles are the way to go here. There is just no low level cold feed into the storm. Starting to think the NAM is creating all the snow through pure dynamics as it has the best H5 look. It is, the omega values on the 700mb charts are rather similar to the event in October. That, plus the precipitation occurring at night in early December makes it seems plausible, at least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow, this is one heck of a piece of energy at 500mb. I have the distinct feeling the NAM is to wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Sorry, tired as Eskimo Joe. I meant rest of the year. I learned to dread Ninas after the ice festival that was the 2008-2009 winter. I'm thinking something like this is possible with this storm. Maroon: T-2" Black: 2-6" Orange: 4-8" Purple: Possible Jackpot zone. 6-12" + The colors just south of the jackpot zone is open for debate. Depends on how much WAA affects that region. If anything, my confidence is lending more towards a souther solution so if anything these totals could shift further south. Hope you guys like the map, it is just a guestimate at this time Edit: Since the NAM has such a sharp cutoff, the totals I have might not work out for places in SW PA like PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dear god. What a Vort max! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM out to 45. Troff going negative earlier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 00z NAM, closes off the feature at 500mb over western Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I bet NCEP hates the pressure we put on their server. It's so slow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow, just wow at the 00z NAM...that mid level energy is going to go bonkers once it hits the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That vort is near perfect. Think qpf is too tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM looking warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm just going to let this speak for itself. Thursday AM commute could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am a bit surprised there is such a tight cutoff to the northwest - what's the reason for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am a bit surprised there is such a tight cutoff to the northwest - what's the reason for that? It will probably spread out. We been seeing tight cut offs but, when the event comes it is more spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM looking warmer. Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am a bit surprised there is such a tight cutoff to the northwest - what's the reason for that? With this storm sliding off the coast and wrapping up so quickly, it doesn't surprise me to see such a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LOL at nam cutoff.....looks like I'm heading over to the complaint section hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not really. For example 18z run has 9z freezing mark wedged all the way down to the Mason Dixon line 0z run its all the way up in the Pocono's Pretty significant shift IMO....especially when its the cold outlier of the model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 For example 18z run has 9z freezing mark wedged all the way down to the Mason Dixon line 0z run its all the way up in the Pocono's Pretty significant shift IMO....especially when its the cold outlier of the model world. Talking about the surface? It is colder where precip is falling. Still around 32-33 where it is snowing. Warmer elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I remember this from the last several storms. The storm turning more east is causing precip gradient to tighten. It will def. probably be tight. Not a good setup for IPT, UNV and AVP...but PERFECT for MDT East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 For once, AVP and Hazleton are actually on the right side of the gradient here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hate being in the bullseye 48 hours out ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 00z GFS out to HR33. 500 energy is closed off over NW Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 HR 39, 500 energy opens back up but continues to dig down to Louisiana. I smell a big run, hold onto your glove folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM and GFS are almost the same at H5 yet GFS still having issues at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 HR 39, 500 energy opens back up but continues to dig down to Louisiana. I smell a big run, hold onto your glove folks. GFS is having some handling issues me think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Storm starts going to town at HR 48. 1008mb low over central North Carolina, with moderate to heavy precip starting to break out on the NW side. Energy at 500mb continues to close off, open back up but the longwave trough has clearly taken on a neutral tilt. At 850, the zero degree isotherm is setup right along I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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