Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 My bet is December is a bust compared to the cold/snowy forecasts. Then we are left hoping about January until 12/20 when we either see impending doom in terms of cold/snow or impending doom in terms of a lost winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 November 2009 was quite dry in the southern plains....not sure I see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 mt zucker season ski pass confirmed...thx henry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Having precip in the southern US doesn't necessarily mean it's a classic STJ. The MJO I think briefly made the STJ more active (maybe some other factors?)...as its been there in November...but I would be shocked if the STJ was a big player this winter with a decent Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The pattern across the CONUS has been nino like as of late, probably explainable. Still not used to seeing the midwest torch and the SE end up below average in a Moderate La Nina autumn except in rare instances such as 1967/68. Also there was some of that in 1988/89 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The pattern across the CONUS has been nino like as of late, probably explainable. Still not used to seeing the midwest torch and the SE end up below average in a Moderate La Nina autumn except in rare instances such as 1967/68. Also there was some of that in 1988/89 I believe. Actually torching in the northern plains/midwest in November during -ENSO is not unusual. See: 1949, 1954, 1956, 1962, 1971, 1974, 1983, 1984, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Actually torching in the northern plains/midwest in November during La Nina is not unusual. See: 1949, 1954, 1956, 1962, 1971, 1974, 1983, 1984, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008. Good post. It's not unusual to have warm in the plains even in a la nina state even during winter if the AO stays positive. If it's neutral or negative, then the midwest gets cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Good post. It's not unusual to have warm in the plains even in a la nina state even during winter if the AO stays positive. If it's neutral or negative, then the midwest gets cold. Yup. Though it's interesting to note that the years I listed have a nearly inverse correlation with November and the following winter. I doubt the northern tier of the country will torch this winter, especially the northern plains/northern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yup. Though it's interesting to note that the years I listed have a nearly inverse correlation with November and the following winter. I doubt the northern tier of the country will torch this winter, especially the northern plains/Rockies. If the nao is near neutral. they'll be cold but if the ao is strongly positive, then it's not as clear. I certainly wouldn't go above normal across the plains in a nina year as there is too much uncertainty, plus if you average all la nina year you end up with the northern plains being colder than normal as you usually get some arctic shots and they are often way below normal. You're composite looks very similar to the ao being near neutral composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 He called for a snowy winter in NNE in 2007-2008. Dopes anyone here think the possibility exists for a winter like 1993-94 where winter arrives in mid to late december? Maybe, I'm not to up on winter weather forcasting and stuff. However from what I do know and the up and down ridge and trough setup we could make some of us wait for a long snowy and cold spell to set in. Some mets have been saying we could see the rubber band snap by mid december. The question will then be 1. Who will be in the best area for set cold and snowy weather? 2. When will we snap out of the cold weather? All I can say for sure is the winter may be stormy but, we might be wet not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If the nao is near neutral. they'll be cold but if the ao is strongly positive, then it's not as clear. I certainly wouldn't go above normal across the plains in a nina year as there is too much uncertainty, plus if you average all la nina year you end up with the northern plains being colder than normal as you usually get some arctic shots and they are often way below normal. You're composite looks very similar to the ao being near neutral composite. I think slightly -AO is most likely at this point. So probably a little cooler in the NE and Midwest than that composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Actually torching in the northern plains/midwest in November during -ENSO is not unusual. See: 1949, 1954, 1956, 1962, 1971, 1974, 1983, 1984, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008. Thats just November through, and last November was torchy as well. I'm referring to the September through November period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Paul Pastelok, their Long Range forecaster, yesterday adjusted their winter forecast and shifted any cooler temps. relative to averages to the Western Lakes west, acrosss the Northern plains into the NW. He also rerserved the right to potentially shift that change further west next week. Judging from henry Margusity's blog on the accuweather free site today, he seems to be hinting that winter in the east this year may be a lot milder than they were initially thinking, with accuweather planning to release a winter forecast update. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/58066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Paul Pastelok, their Long Range forecaster, yesterday adjusted their winter forecast and shifted any cooler temps. relative to averages to the Western Lakes west, acrosss the Northern plains into the NW. He also rerserved the right to potentially shift that change further west next week. So he basically is throwing darts at the dartboard. Changing his winter forecast once already, possibly again next week , even before December begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Thats just November through, and last November was torchy as well. I'm referring to the September through November period. Four of the last five Nina Autumns have been pretty warm across the Midwest. And that's not including the "borderline" years of 2008 and 2005 which were both warm overall, 2005 especially so. This one will make five of six. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Four of the last five Nina Autumns have been pretty warm across the Midwest. And that's not including the "borderline" years of 2008 and 2005 which were both warm overall, 2005 especially so. This one will make five of six. Yeah, you can also see the influence of the +AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 you can add November 1961 and 1985 to near miss la nina Novembers...They were mild east and cold west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Well it seems like Mother Nature is has just been doing a balancing act with the seasons. Really these have been some of the nicest falls I've ever seen and experienced in my life, great weather to golf and watch football in while I can't remember the last time we had a nice spring. It rained almost everyday in May this year in Ohio. As for accuweather they only had one true met worth watching and that was JB. I mean I've never heard any pro met on here say the like and respect HM as a forecaster, in fact I've heard most say he's an embarrassment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbchandler Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Well it seems like Mother Nature is has just been doing a balancing act with the seasons. Really these have been some of the nicest falls I've ever seen and experienced in my life, great weather to golf and watch football in while I can't remember the last time we had a nice spring. It rained almost everyday in May this year in Ohio. As for accuweather they only had one true met worth watching and that was JB. I mean I've never heard any pro met on here say the like and respect HM as a forecaster, in fact I've heard most say he's an embarrassment I think Joe Luenberg is by far their best. Curious as to what others think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 I think Joe Luenberg is by far their best. Curious as to what others think Lundberg is good, as is Elliot Abrams. Bastardi was good overall too although he did tend to hype things up. He always brought interesting ideas to the table and didn't simply hug models as margusity does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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