Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Judging from henry Margusity's blog on the accuweather free site today, he seems to be hinting that winter in the east this year may be a lot milder than they were initially thinking, with accuweather planning to release a winter forecast update. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/why-so-warm-in-the-east-severe-wx-and-snow-in-the-forecast/58066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Congrats on the cold and snowy winter then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 best news ive heard all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 My bet is a media stunt until the actual Dec. 1 report comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 So what will the oil companies do? They'll have to creat some artificial shortage. Eskimo's don't use much oil. I think a lot of forecasters are busy working on updated winter forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't understand the logic. Henry says because this year is a weaker nina it will be warmer than last year. It's the strong nina's that kill us on the EC not the weaker ones. The reason last year was cold was because the ao/nao cooperated. That fought against the typical nina trough west / ridge east. Not saying that he's wrong about this year being warm in the east but I don't understand his logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Now I'm more confident of a cold snowy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 henry really isnt a Met either..i think he is a salesguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 henry really isnt a Met either..i think he is a salesguy Oh, like JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 looks like mild with heavy snow http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/23193-henry-ms-1st-call-winter-2011-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Has Henry ever been right with a winter forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Has Henry ever been right with a winter forecast? has he ever been right about anything? He's awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Has Henry ever been right with a winter forecast? He called for a snowy winter in NNE in 2007-2008. Dopes anyone here think the possibility exists for a winter like 1993-94 where winter arrives in mid to late december? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't understand the logic. Henry says because this year is a weaker nina it will be warmer than last year. It's the strong nina's that kill us on the EC not the weaker ones. The reason last year was cold was because the ao/nao cooperated. That fought against the typical nina trough west / ridge east. Not saying that he's wrong about this year being warm in the east but I don't understand his logic. A lot of us never have understood him. He's the only forecaster I've ever seen have multiple articles about how people need to stop with the nasty comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 He called for a snowy winter in NNE in 2007-2008. Dopes anyone here think the possibility exists for a winter like 1993-94 where winter arrives in mid to late december? It'll come when it comes, 06/07 was dry and mild down here until the end of January, ended up with a 6" sleetpack that stuck around into March if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 How much milder is it in the Capital Region this year. Is it way above normal for November? Seems like a fairly normal November to me. But what do I know. GFS has been hinting at below- normal temps coming in the first week of December, which is the first month of winter. Frankly that timing seems to be "normal". But if I remember correctly, Margusity was on board with Bastardi two winters ago. Judging from henry Margusity's blog on the accuweather free site today, he seems to be hinting that winter in the east this year may be a lot milder than they were initially thinking, with accuweather planning to release a winter forecast update. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/58066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't understand the logic. Henry says because this year is a weaker nina it will be warmer than last year. It's the strong nina's that kill us on the EC not the weaker ones. The reason last year was cold was because the ao/nao cooperated. That fought against the typical nina trough west / ridge east. Not saying that he's wrong about this year being warm in the east but I don't understand his logic. Sometimes the 2nd year La Ninas can have a tendency to be less favorable even though they were weaker than the one the prior winter. The reason is that often times La Ninas tend to follow El Ninos, and this one followed a relatively high end moderate El Nino. As a result, the entire atmosphere in 2010-2011 may still have had somewhat of a remnant effect of the El Nino with the highly negative AO being a result, the AO and NAO has had a tendency to average negative more during El Ninos than La Ninas, it did that in 1997-98 though almost nobody remembers that because the Pacific overwhelmed the pattern. In the end, we may now have more of a true La Nina impact on the atmosphere in 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Sometimes the 2nd year La Ninas can have a tendency to be less favorable even though they were weaker than the one the prior winter. The reason is that often times La Ninas tend to follow El Ninos, and this one followed a relatively high end moderate El Nino. As a result, the entire atmosphere in 2010-2011 may still have had somewhat of a remnant effect of the El Nino with the highly negative AO being a result, the AO and NAO has had a tendency to average negative more during El Ninos than La Ninas, it did that in 1997-98 though almost nobody remembers that because the Pacific overwhelmed the pattern. In the end, we may now have more of a true La Nina impact on the atmosphere in 2011-2012. What sort of Nino leftover could there possibly have been? I'm pretty sure ENSO change from one phase to another requires atmospheric agreement, STJ was dead in 2010/11 if I recall correctly? The GLAAM was very low too so I'm not really sure where I would look to find Nino leftovers? And if the -AO was a result of the Nino leftovers, despite the cold PV and opposing QBO phase suggesting Sun activity influence, what was the deep -AO caused by in 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Sometimes the 2nd year La Ninas can have a tendency to be less favorable even though they were weaker than the one the prior winter. The reason is that often times La Ninas tend to follow El Ninos, and this one followed a relatively high end moderate El Nino. As a result, the entire atmosphere in 2010-2011 may still have had somewhat of a remnant effect of the El Nino with the highly negative AO being a result, the AO and NAO has had a tendency to average negative more during El Ninos than La Ninas, it did that in 1997-98 though almost nobody remembers that because the Pacific overwhelmed the pattern. In the end, we may now have more of a true La Nina impact on the atmosphere in 2011-2012. The STJ is setting up to be far more powerful this winter than last... so how can you say there were Niño remnants last winter but not this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Now i know the end is near. I have experienced an earthquake, a Hurricane, a Tropical Storm and a 6" October snowfall and now a pinned thread about a Henry Margusity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The STJ is setting up to be far more powerful this winter than last... so how can you say there were Niño remnants last winter but not this winter? Can you please show evidence of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Mark vogan http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Sometimes the 2nd year La Ninas can have a tendency to be less favorable even though they were weaker than the one the prior winter. The reason is that often times La Ninas tend to follow El Ninos, and this one followed a relatively high end moderate El Nino. As a result, the entire atmosphere in 2010-2011 may still have had somewhat of a remnant effect of the El Nino with the highly negative AO being a result, the AO and NAO has had a tendency to average negative more during El Ninos than La Ninas, it did that in 1997-98 though almost nobody remembers that because the Pacific overwhelmed the pattern. In the end, we may now have more of a true La Nina impact on the atmosphere in 2011-2012. I'm not so sure about that, the winter following the super El Nino of 97-98 was a strong La Nina, and the atmosphere certainly behaved like one. +AO, -PNA, +NAO basically dominated the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The STJ is setting up to be far more powerful this winter than last... so how can you say there were Niño remnants last winter but not this winter? Didn't ENSO get back to neutralish this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Now i know the end is near. I have experienced an earthquake, a Hurricane, a Tropical Storm and a 6" October snowfall and now a pinned thread about a Henry Margusity forecast. First time I've started a thread that has been pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Same here. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/27886-roger-smith-winter-forecast-mild-mild-cold/ I guess it sounds better the second time around (eh?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Can you please show evidence of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Now i know the end is near. I have experienced an earthquake, a Hurricane, a Tropical Storm and a 6" October snowfall and now a pinned thread about a Henry Margusity forecast. Just waiting for tornados in greenland..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Same here. http://www.americanw...mild-mild-cold/ I guess it sounds better the second time around (eh?) I kind of hope your forecast busts (no offence), but so far you're on the right track. Now if we could get a February like 1967 as payback... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Having precip in the southern US doesn't necessarily mean it's a classic STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.