Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[ORH_wxman]

The ensembles are going to be pretty accurate in a stable hemispheric pattern like we have now. The models perform a lot worse when there is a lot of high latitude blocking.

[toronto blizzard]

The ensembles are going to be pretty accurate in a stable hemispheric pattern like we have now. The models perform a lot worse when there is a lot of high latitude blocking.

Still though I dont think back in early November the euro weeklies were calling for a +PNA to develop with troughing in the east.

Take these forecasts FWIW

[ORH_wxman]

Still though I dont think back in early November the euro weeklies were calling for a +PNA to develop with troughing in the east.

Take these forecasts FWIW

Week 4...sure, can be shaky on the weeklies. The actual ensembles though only go out 15 days and have been pretty good.

[weatherwiz]

Was walking home form work and about two blocks away I saw Lightning!!!!!! Saw two flashes...lit up the sky!!!

[toronto blizzard]

Week 4...sure, can be shaky on the weeklies. The actual ensembles though only go out 15 days and have been pretty good.

In your opinion do you trust what the lastest euro weeklies were saying or do you see a paatern change after the 15th of December?

[ORH_wxman]

In your opinion do you trust what the lastest euro weeklies were saying or do you see a paatern change after the 15th of December?

They show a solidly +AO which I don't disagree with...the part that cannot be trusted on a week 4 prog IMHO is the nuances of where the low heights end up in the Arctic...that could affect the PNA which would be our main means of getting cold without blocking. If a PV lobe gets far enough south like near Hudson Bay, we could cool off as well in that manner.

[weathafella]

I wonder how many people will excuse themselves during Thanksgiving dinner to see if someone posted on the weeklies...

[toronto blizzard]

They show a solidly +AO which I don't disagree with...the part that cannot be trusted on a week 4 prog IMHO is the nuances of where the low heights end up in the Arctic...that could affect the PNA which would be our main means of getting cold without blocking. If a PV lobe gets far enough south like near Hudson Bay, we could cool off as well in that manner.

And if I heard correctly that does try to haapen around Hudson bay with the PV lobe?

[TheTrials]

Was walking home form work and about two blocks away I saw Lightning!!!!!! Saw two flashes...lit up the sky!!!

you sure?

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/Lightning.aspx

also, nothing on radar even close to convective

[CT Rain]

you sure?

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/Lightning.aspx

also, nothing on radar even close to convective

Transformer blew

[TheTrials]

Transformer blew

lol

[Organizing Low]

Transformer blew

CLP sucks

[HoarfrostHubb]

I wonder how many people will excuse themselves during Thanksgiving dinner to see if someone posted on the weeklies...

Hey, if I cook I get to look at whatever I want...

[CoastalWx]

The whole pattern is just so stable. We are going to need a super nova to disrupt the +AO...lol.

[H2Otown_WX]

The whole pattern is just so stable. We are going to need a super nova to disrupt the +AO...lol.

SSW at the end of Jan. FTW???

[NorEastermass128]

The whole pattern is just so stable. We are going to need a super nova to disrupt the +AO...lol.

Does this have anything to do with what Tip referenced a couple weeks ago that essentially the atmosphere is still in summer mode because what normally happens (in the atmosphere by Oct. 1) still hasn't happened. Not sure what the technical term is.

[CoastalWx]

Does this have anything to do with what Tip referenced a couple weeks ago that essentially the atmosphere is still in summer mode because what normally happens (in the atmosphere by Oct. 1) still hasn't happened. Not sure what the technical term is.

I don't think so. I don't recall what he said, so I can't really answer that. We seem to be in a pretty stable pattern with all the global indices remaining in phases to help perpetuate this, for the time being.

[moneypitmike]

One thing that's nice is even with this awful torch, the postivite departures are resulting in forecast highs in the low-mid 50's through Tuesday. Certainly gross, but the departures sound worse than the actuals. Of course, that could change and they could verify warmer later on.

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL at the Euro run last night cutting off a low over the Gulf Coast at this time of year. Thankfully nothing else agrees with it

[NorEaster27]

Heavy heavy torch incoming

[weathafella]

Heavy heavy torch incoming

Given the fact that there is heavy snow 60 miles north of us, one has to be thinking maybe the squirrels are onto something this winter.

[H2Otown_WX]

Missing Scott's analysis of the 00z ECM ensembles..guess it's just the same old same old.

[CoastalWx]

Missing Scott's analysis of the 00z ECM ensembles..guess it's just the same old same old.

Pretty much. Still have a little ridging into Canada, but again, the sw trough doesn't allow good cold into SNE and looks like SWFE are possible. Still think milder or messy solutions are possible, but we walk the line I think. Could also be snowier if the cold is somewhat established.

[H2Otown_WX]

Pretty much. Still have a little ridging into Canada, but again, the sw trough doesn't allow good cold into SNE and looks like SWFE are possible. Still think milder or messy solutions are possible, but we walk the line I think. Could also be snowier if the cold is somewhat established.

Maybe we could pull off a 12/9/09 sometime early in the month or would you say the pattern back then was a good deal better?

[Damage In Tolland]

Pretty much. Still have a little ridging into Canada, but again, the sw trough doesn't allow good cold into SNE and looks like SWFE are possible. Still think milder or messy solutions are possible, but we walk the line I think. Could also be snowier if the cold is somewhat established.

Much better than what we have had the last month

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX does not seem too amped over the impending torch. Friday here is pegged at 54, but then 50 and 51...

Still not great, but better than it had been. Unfortunately, the nighttime lows are in the mid to upper 30s/low 40s Blah

[Tropopause_Fold]

looks like a solid 5 to 7 days of well above normal stuff coming before maybe we settle into a less anomalous above normal pattern overall.

nothing too exciting for the time being.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe we could pull off a 12/9/09 sometime early in the month or would you say the pattern back then was a good deal better?

Yeah I could see some of those deals too. SWFE turning into a mess.

I'm just not excited at all about what I see, but I do understand that we may have just enough cold if it times right. I still don't like the overall pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Man look at this.

Forecasting of -NAO FTL.

[MJO812]

^^^^

At least we kind of have the PNA in our favor.