Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[TheCloser24]

Just saw WSI winter outlook on the weather channel and it looks like they're expecting a colder than average winter in New England.

[Logan11]

Major eastern trough at day 12 on the Canadian ensembles. PNA modestly positive, but must be some members with the AK weakness knocking that ridge down a bit.'

As in temp departures?

[Tropopause_Fold]

As in temp departures?

yeah.

we've been saying all along that we'd be looking at huge + numbers several times through at least 12/1, but that there'd be some transient cool shots...and after one of the day's that Kevin lost it and drove his car into the CT river, he spun that around to say some of us were implying +15 everyday.

in the end...averaged out...it could be close.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

yeah.

we've been saying all along that we'd be looking at huge + numbers several times through at least 12/1, but that there'd be some transient cool shots...and after one of the day's that Kevin lost it and drove his car into the CT river, he spun that around to say some of us were implying +15 everyday.

in the end...averaged out...it could be close.

It's nice out even today...low 50s here. Looking forward to 55-60ish this weekend. That's pretty cool (as in unusual/nice) IMO.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's nice out even today...low 50s here. Looking forward to 55-60ish this weekend. That's pretty cool (as in unusual/nice) IMO.

we've got a ways to go yet before we shake this.

if you took the op euro at face value, it's probably above normal every day through day 10.

it is what it is.

gfs ensembles offer some hope for at least a period of more seasonable weather sometime early in december, but nothing out of the ordinary. and really it would probably still be AOA normal imo during that period...by the time we hit 12/1 BOS average day is 46/33 and ORH is 41/27- it'll take a pretty sizable shift downward in temps to be at or below those numbers consistently.

[CoastalWx]

Just saw WSI winter outlook on the weather channel and it looks like they're expecting a colder than average winter in New England.

I think that was the older Dec-Feb outlook. That cold is mostly Jan and Feb weighted..mostly Jan.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

we've got a ways to go yet before we shake this.

if you took the op euro at face value, it's probably above normal every day through day 10.

it is what it is.

gfs ensembles offer some hope for at least a period of more seasonable weather sometime early in december, but nothing out of the ordinary. and really it would probably still be AOA normal imo during that period...by the time we hit 12/1 BOS average day is 46/33 and ORH is 41/27- it'll take a pretty sizable shift downward in temps to be at or below those numbers consistently.

100% agree. It is what it is...I'm enjoying the nice weather and clean, clear roads.

[weathafella]

100% agree. It is what it is...I'm enjoying the nice weather and clean, clear roads.

FU CK the clean roads. Skid. 11/22-12/1 is never particularly cold...or usually is a better word vs never. My bday is 12/1, and the times it was under 40 for a high are few and far between. Lots of upper 40s to 50. Last year it was around 60 or so. The cake was 2001 when it was sunny, tranquil, 70ish.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

FU CK the clean roads. Skid. 11/22-12/1 is never particularly cold...or usually is a better word vs never. My bday is 12/1, and the times it was under 40 for a high are few and far between. Lots of upper 40s to 50. Last year it was around 60 or so. The cake was 2001 when it was sunny, tranquil, 70ish.

It's almost bikini weather Saturday-Sunday. 5 more degrees and I'll be at the beach.

Shovel that.

Point/Click is roughly 60 Friday Saturday Sunday Monday tuesday. That's more than not particularly cold, that's thong weather.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is going to be one brutal ass stretch of wx from friday-Tuesday until we can get that front to rip nthru and get us back to normal temps or even slightly below by the 30th. Draw the shades and don't look outside until next week at this time

[CT Rain]

Euro ensembles are hideous. EPO relaxes a bit around 11/30-12/1 but then recharges and reloads. All while there is no blocking to speak of. Just hideous.

Even with a somwhat better EPO/Pacific around 12/1 we're not going to get any real cold in here with a monster cut off to our southwest. Above normal temps rule.

Hopefully eventually we'll be able to set up some type of gradient pattern that benefits us but I'm much more optimistic for NNE in terms of snow.

[CoastalWx]

Boringness continues on the EC ensembles.

[Damage In Tolland]

Think it's time to side with the GGEM ensembles. been much better and much more reliable than the Euro ens

[CoastalWx]

Think it's time to side with the GGEM ensembles. been much better and much more reliable than the Euro ens

I agree. I mean this is day 2 of your wintry pattern.

[CT Rain]

Think it's time to side with the GGEM ensembles. been much better and much more reliable than the Euro ens

The problem is most of the ensembles have been remarkably consistent in the 10-15 day window and to be honest we haven't really seen something show up that will physically force the pattern to change. It's an ugly pattern and we need to start see something to drive the pattern change. We don't even have that.

[CT Rain]

I agree. I mean this is day 2 of your wintry pattern.

lol

[Damage In Tolland]

The problem is most of the ensembles have been remarkably consistent in the 10-15 day window and to be honest we haven't really seen something show up that will physically force the pattern to change. It's an ugly pattern and we need to start see something to drive the pattern change. We don't even have that.

I just can't believe it's going to remain 10-15 above normal up until X-mas. We still look to hve a nice period early Dec

[CT Rain]

I just can't believe it's going to remain 10-15 above normal up until X-mas. We still look to hve a nice period early Dec

I said 10-15 days not 10-15 degrees. And yeah things will not stay this warm... but we have a hell of a way to go to even get to climo. Thisis going to take a long time.

[KEITH L.I]

I said 10-15 days not 10-15 degrees. And yeah things will not stay this warm... but we have a hell of a way to go to even get to climo. Thisis going to take a long time.

we have been in the same pattern or something that resembles it since Hurricane Irene blew thru..that's almost 3 months..the rubberband will break.We are lucky the pattern didn't start December 1st

[Damage In Tolland]

I said 10-15 days not 10-15 degrees. And yeah things will not stay this warm... but we have a hell of a way to go to even get to climo. Thisis going to take a long time.

As long as we have marginal cold we'll have a few wintry precip opps the next few weeks..If NNE can do it with this pattern we"ll be able to pull a rabbit or 2 out of our hats with a more favorable regime..even if it's only slightly better.

I ust want to fast forward to next week

[Tropopause_Fold]

I agree. I mean this is day 2 of your wintry pattern.

Literally lol'd on this response

[Damage In Tolland]

Literally lol'd on this response

How come?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The problem is most of the ensembles have been remarkably consistent in the 10-15 day window and to be honest we haven't really seen something show up that will physically force the pattern to change. It's an ugly pattern and we need to start see something to drive the pattern change. We don't even have that.

I don't see what all the hope and change is about yet either. When we are all rubbing on the aloe after this weekend looking at models Monday and Tuesday and they still look bad.....

I just don't see the "what" in terms of driving the pattern change.

Pattern relaxing and backing down from where we are now sure, otherwise we'd have the warmest december in the history of snow weenies.

[HoarfrostHubb]

As long as we have marginal cold we'll have a few wintry precip opps the next few weeks..If NNE can do it with this pattern we"ll be able to pull a rabbit or 2 out of our hats with a more favorable regime..even if it's only slightly better.

I ust want to fast forward to next week

I endorse this, other than the fast forward bit... I like Thanksgiving

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The mets on the main thread aren't very hopeful either. Hope is fading fast for December JMHO. Embrace the warmth.

Logan will see it's next significant snow even in 2012.

[toronto blizzard]

Euro ensembles are hideous. EPO relaxes a bit around 11/30-12/1 but then recharges and reloads. All while there is no blocking to speak of. Just hideous.

Even with a somwhat better EPO/Pacific around 12/1 we're not going to get any real cold in here with a monster cut off to our southwest. Above normal temps rule.

Hopefully eventually we'll be able to set up some type of gradient pattern that benefits us but I'm much more optimistic for NNE in terms of snow.

Again read my post from last night. I said that you cannot trust these ensembles right now in the 11-15 day period. They can't even figure the pattern for the weekend and early next week pattern let alone the 11-15 day period. GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Organizing Low]

Again read my post from last night. I said that you cannot trust these ensembles right now in the 11-15 day period. They can't even figure the pattern for the weekend and early next week pattern let alone the 11-15 day period. GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

why do you always ask for them then??

[CT Rain]

Again read my post from last night. I said that you cannot trust these ensembles right now in the 11-15 day period. They can't even figure the pattern for the weekend and early next week pattern let alone the 11-15 day period. GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nice post. Disagree entirely.

[toronto blizzard]

Nice post. Disagree entirely.

I really don't care if you agree or disagree with me

I'm just saying don't be so down on what these euro ensembles are showing and then you complain about them.

Look I respect you , you're a Met and I'm just a kid who one day wants to become a Met, but man don't be so down on the models you can't take them very seroiusly 3-4 weeks out.

[toronto blizzard]

why do you always ask for them then??

I ask for them because I'm curious to see what they show.