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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
Euro looks fairly good next week after we get that cut off to move off south of us watching Louisville and Cincy get a foot of snow..while we get 50's and screaming soueasterlies

Bizarre pattern but didn't this happen at the beginning of last winter in OK I think? They got heavy snow and it was mild here?

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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It continues to try and slowly improve on the ensembles. The GFS ensembles seem the most bullish with retrograding the vortex into ne Siberia and develop a nice ridge out west. We also have slight riding in the NATL. Verbatim it would probably be good for us.

Euro ensembles still have the vortex a little se closer to the Bering Sea and raging + NAO. The result is a warmer pattern for us, but still a cool down overall. It looks like a big gradient pattern on the euro ensembles. Perhaps a couple of SWFE early on with that trough over the sw US. Hopefully our latitude will help, but with a +NAO...we walk the line. Could be milder solutions in the beginning of the month.

The one thing I'm watching, is ridging over western Russia. The coldest air is aligned from north of AK through the Davis Straits. This western Russia ridge may try to flex and push the PV south...closer to Hudson Bay. I've seen it before. lets root for that because it would really help out.

So no, I don't think we are seeing a change to sustained cold and snow, but it does look a little better overall. I'm still wary of more events like this upcoming one, with NNE cashing in and SNE getting screwed...but those details cannot be determined right now.

yeah the GFS ensembles look like a more normal-ish late november/early december temperature pattern in the long range - certainly a (temporary?) move away from this ongoing stretch of way above normal temps. canadian ensembles agree too.

PNA is finally starting to rise - and if the naefs cluster is to be believed, we'd have a strong + anomaly over the west/off the west coast by day 10ish.

factor in that lower region of heights in the SW that's showing up on the ec ens and maybe we start looking to december 1-5 for our first SWFE with actual snow chances in parts of SNE.

but lack of good cold air is a concern as we aren't likely to have a big dump of modified arctic air into the area out ahead of it - something we saw in 07 and 08 (those years are showing up in the analog package now). so like you said, would be concerned that they end up on the milder side given the north atlantic and aforementioned lack of serious cold.

that's the part that made december so good in 07 and 08 - those SWFEs ran into frigid air.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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yeah the GFS ensembles look like a more normal-ish late november/early december temperature pattern in the long range - certainly a (temporary?) move away from this ongoing stretch of way above normal temps. canadian ensembles agree too.

PNA is finally starting to rise - and if the naefs cluster is to be believed, we'd have a strong + anomaly over the west/off the west coast by day 10ish.

factor in that lower region of heights in the SW that's showing up on the ec ens and maybe we start looking to december 1-5 for our first SWFE with actual snow chances in parts of SNE.

but lack of good cold air is a concern as we aren't likely to have a big dump of modified arctic air into the area out ahead of it - something we saw in 07 and 08 (those years are showing up in the analog package now). so like you said, would be concerned that they end up on the milder side given the north atlantic and aforementioned lack of serious cold.

that's the part that made december so good in 07 and 08 - those SWFEs ran into frigid air.

Great post. Also the location of the PV allows lower heights in our region despite the lower heights in AK. Seems a good trend is developing to a more normal regime. The cold air depth looks to be an issue.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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Bizarre pattern but didn't this happen at the beginning of last winter in OK I think? They got heavy snow and it was mild here?

i'm fairly sure that was during the winter of 09-10, during the huge negative AO, where the MA/NYC and places in the southern plains were getting storm after storm while labarador and NE north america puked up maritime air on a retrograde flow

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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OceanStWX is good too. He knows Will and went to grad school with a former intern who I knew.

I prob have spoke with him at GYX, There is a couple guys i talked to all the time there when i call in but i don't know his name, All you guys are decent as far as i am concerned putting up with a lot of us here, Anyways, Pattern does not look good for the next few weeks after this event tomorrow, I will go with Gerry's analogy 12/10-12/25 for a change..

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
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It's probably not going to be a torch, but I don't see anything terribly exciting. Just hope we get enough PNA ridging, because those SWFE in December, may not be far off from this one.

It's hard to get excited after seeing the 12z GFS. Every cold shot is very transient...and the CONUS warms up extraordinarily fast with each passing cold snap.

Hopefully we aren't setting up a semi-permanent pattern with this garbage. Things can change quickly though...I wouldn't want to have to thread the needle every single time, though either.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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It's hard to get excited after seeing the 12z GFS. Every cold shot is very transient...and the CONUS warms up extraordinarily fast with each passing cold snap.

Hopefully we aren't setting up a semi-permanent pattern with this garbage. Things can change quickly though...I wouldn't want to have to thread the needle every single time, though either.

It's the GFS, but the transient idea is on the table imo. any SWFE will also aid in the transient nature if we can't get enough ridging to our north. I still don't see a large scale pattern change yet, just some improvements.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

It's hard to get excited after seeing the 12z GFS. Every cold shot is very transient...and the CONUS warms up extraordinarily fast with each passing cold snap.

Hopefully we aren't setting up a semi-permanent pattern with this garbage. Things can change quickly though...I wouldn't want to have to thread the needle every single time, though either.

Patience. Nothing in the range of the models yet and you know my mantra. And this year, don't leave the country during the snowiest period in decades!

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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It's the GFS, but the transient idea is on the table imo. any SWFE will also aid in the transient nature if we can't get enough ridging to our north. I still don't see a large scale pattern change yet, just some improvements.

I don't see it either. Just a trend towards what would be this years version of winter. In the next 4 or so days we should start to see the material changes taking place - not a rebuilding of the AK vortex if we're going to see a wholesale change take place.

Meanwhile enjoy the pleasant temps.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I don't see it either. Just a trend towards what would be this years version of winter. In the next 4 or so days we should start to see the material changes taking place - not a rebuilding of the AK vortex if we're going to see a wholesale change take place.

Meanwhile enjoy the pleasant temps.

It is improving,and it would not take much for a couple of events to break right imo. I'm just skeptical of any sustained stuff...and the fact that any SWFE could be a more mild solution for SNE.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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It is improving,and it would not take much for a couple of events to break right imo. I'm just skeptical of any sustained stuff...and the fact that any SWFE could be a more mild solution for SNE.
If NNE can pull off what they are tomorrow in a pattern that is one of the worst in US history. we should be able to pull off some snow events the first week of December in a more favorable and colder overall regime..even if it's just marginal cold
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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If NNE can pull off what they are tomorrow in a pattern that is one of the worst in US history. we should be able to pull off some snow events the first week of December in a more favorable and colder overall regime..even if it's just marginal cold

Sure, but storm track doesn't necessarily care that it is colder. It may argue areas further south start as snow, but if a low tracks towards SNE, it may be a mess. It might not mean a torch, but I don't see arctic air like we had in Dec '07. If we can get that ridge a little more pumped up, it would cause the cold to come further south and a SWFE could turn into a Miller B. However, I think milder solutions are certainly possible, if not more likely.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Sure, but storm track doesn't necessarily care that it is colder. It may argue areas further south start as snow, but if a low tracks towards SNE, it may be a mess. It might not mean a torch, but I don't see arctic air like we had in Dec '07. If we can get that ridge a little more pumped up, it would cause the cold to come further south and a SWFE could turn into a Miller B. However, I think milder solutions are certainly possible, if not more likely.

I think I know what your worries are.. You are worried for the cp of it being a bit too warm for snow/frozen, while inland it's marginal for snow and/or ice.

I envision a couple events where we get 2-4 inches of snow to ice to drizzle at 35 or something..which at this point I would give up my Thanksgiving Turkey for

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

John said in this thread that he fully expected some runs that would back off on the change... How did the GEFS and the Euro look?

I think I know what your worries are.. You are worried for the cp of it being a bit too warm for snow/frozen, while inland it's marginal for snow and/or ice.

I envision a couple events where we get 2-4 inches of snow to ice to drizzle at 35 or something..which at this point I would give up my Thanksgiving Turkey for

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I think I know what your worries are.. You are worried for the cp of it being a bit too warm for snow/frozen, while inland it's marginal for snow and/or ice.

I envision a couple events where we get 2-4 inches of snow to ice to drizzle at 35 or something..which at this point I would give up my Thanksgiving Turkey for

I definitely do have concerns where I am, but that isn't swaying my opinion. I think Will, Phil, Ryan...everyone all has the same concern. Don't forget, SWFE aren't the nicest even where you are.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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It is improving,and it would not take much for a couple of events to break right imo. I'm just skeptical of any sustained stuff...and the fact that any SWFE could be a more mild solution for SNE.

If the AK low is there anything significantly better is goign to be delayed. Like Kev said doesn't mean it can't snow. A setup like a few days ago 3-4 weeks from now would have brought 4+ inches down here.

May not be a great year for snowpack but it should snow just fine.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Euro is insistent in backing that AK vortex into NE Siberia. It may come back but I think the models will not know how the pattern will set up just yet. 12/10-25 is the period of change. It should be frigid by the week of 12/25.

A bit of ridging on the WC could do some wonders...even if we cannot get a full blown -EPO with it...even a neutralish EPO could help. We have cashed in before in patterns like that in December because of our latitude...it doesn't always work, but sometimes it does.

December 1975 is a very good example of this...raging +AO, but we had just enough ridging on the west coast and the gradient was pushed just enough south that we managed to get some nice snow events (back to back warning criteria right before Xmas that year) while further south didn't.

December 1956 also was fairly similar. To a lesser extent 2007...that pattern was a bit more favorable but still a big +AO.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Euro is insistent in backing that AK vortex into NE Siberia. It may come back but I think the models will not know how the pattern will set up just yet. 12/10-25 is the period of change. It should be frigid by the week of 12/25.

Was just looking at that. Euro looks pretty decent for a few wintry chances after Nov 30..Looks maybe the 2nd or so might be the first one

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Was just looking at that. Euro looks pretty decent for a few wintry chances after Nov 30..Looks maybe the 2nd or so might be the first one

It's got a huge ridge in the GOA, but the euro is ugly into December with a mega CA trough.

But who cares as nobody should care what an op run does beyond 7 days.

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