Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[toronto blizzard]

I mean honestly can these euro weeklies be taken seriously?. You guys get so emotional when the euro weeklies show something negative ala torch through December. The fact that last Thursday the euro weeklies by weeks 3 and 4 were showing signs of improvment everyone started to get excited and now today when they come out and they show a torch through December , you all get upset and complain about it. I'm not happy myself the way that this pattern is going, but the point that I am trying to make here is that the euro weeklies during weeks 3 and 4 cannot be taken seriously and they will be changing every time. I bet this Thursday when they come out again they'll be showing a -EPO developing by week 3 and 4. I don't care how reliable the euro is , it has been garbage all fall.

[dendrite]

I mean honestly can these euro weeklies be taken seriously?. You guys get so emotional when the euro weeklies show something negative ala torch through December. The fact that last Thursday the euro weeklies by weeks 3 and 4 were showing signs of improvment everyone started to get excited and now today when they come out and they a torch through December , you all get upset and complain about it. I'm not happy myself the way that this pattern is going, but the point that I am trying to make here is that the euro weeklies during weeks 3 and 4 cannot be taken seriously and they will be changing every time. I bet this Thursday when they come out again they'll be showing a -EPO developing by week 3 and 4. I don't care how reliable the euro is , it has been garbage all fall.

Then don't keep asking about what they're showing.

[toronto blizzard]

Then don't keep asking about what they're showing.

My point is that they areren't reliable in week 3to4 range that's all.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

0z GFS long long range looks like dog balls.

966 low heading towards AK on 12/8.

I'm really, really hoping we see a focus shift in the next 4-5 days as the 15 day forecast becomes 10 days, but I'm in the wait/hope until January camp right now aside of the freak events like Tue-Thur.

[Logan11]

Mentioning the 1980's in the other thread... In that vein I certainly recall numerous years when we really never got into a stable favorable cold/snowy pattern for a long time. It just seesawed most of the winter. I hope we get a big several week long shift to the +PNA regime, but some years you just take your 5 or 7 day windows and make the best of them, rinse, repeat and go for it again.

I see Miller B possibilities on the 0Z GFS..... ..and certainly a LES bonanza for some.

0z GFS long long range looks like dog balls.

966 low heading towards AK on 12/8.

I'm really, really hoping we see a focus shift in the next 4-5 days as the 15 day forecast becomes 10 days, but I'm in the wait/hope until January camp right now aside of the freak events like Tue-Thur.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Mentioning the 1980's in the other thread... In that vein I certainly recall numerous years when we really never got into a stable favorable cold/snowy pattern for a long time. It just seesawed most of the winter. I hope we get a big several week long shift to the +PNA regime, but some years you just take your 5 or 7 day windows and make the best of them, rinse, repeat and go for it again.

I see Miller B possibilities on the 0Z GFS.....

You and I are old, Weatherfella, Ginx and SkiMRG are prehistoric (kidding guys ) but we all remember those winters. For me it was the 80s, for those guys probably the 80s and early 70s. This stinks to me like those 80s years. I have a lot of hope for January because frankly I agree with Kev and others that said the same models that forecast a ho hum mid-late December were less than great for this week/next week. That said as we start to get into the loooong range of the op models we see the pattern resetting towards ugly. If it's 12/8 and we have the pattern reloading out in AK now it's Xmas before we see a change. That's normal winter. So long as it actually changes.

Pretty much for sure we're not going to be skating on shallow ponds and bogs pre-xmas near the Cape this year. That's fine, the last 2-3 years were the anomaly. 3 white xmas'es in a row on the Cape are unheard of.

[ORH_wxman]

0z GFS long long range looks like dog balls.

966 low heading towards AK on 12/8.

I'm really, really hoping we see a focus shift in the next 4-5 days as the 15 day forecast becomes 10 days, but I'm in the wait/hope until January camp right now aside of the freak events like Tue-Thur.

First of all, any long range OP model is dogcrap to begin with. We've had long range runs of the OP GFS show brutal cold here in the last few days for early December that lasts for a week.

Secondly, the ensembles (and it looks like the OP this time agrees) are unlikely to look good at all in the Day 10-15 time frame since most of our data that we have supports a crappy pattern....we still do not know what will happen in the long wave pattern as we go into Dec 10-20...and certainly clueless on the Dec 20-30 time frame.

[Logan11]

Well....comparing the current beast in AK to the attempt at regeneration at H384, the latter is not that convincing so maybe some hope. By far the dominant polar vortex at 384 is the monster in North Central Canada.

You and I are old, Weatherfella, Ginx and SkiMRG are prehistoric (kidding guys ) but we all remember those winters. For me it was the 80s, for those guys probably the 80s and early 70s. This stinks to me like those 80s years. I have a lot of hope for January because frankly I agree with Kev and others that said the same models that forecast a ho hum mid-late December were less than great for this week/next week. That said as we start to get into the loooong range of the op models we see the pattern resetting towards ugly. If it's 12/8 and we have the pattern reloading out in AK now it's Xmas before we see a change. That's normal winter. So long as it actually changes.

Pretty much for sure we're not going to be skating on shallow ponds and bogs pre-xmas near the Cape this year. That's fine, the last 2-3 years were the anomaly. 3 white xmas'es in a row on the Cape are unheard of.

[ORH_wxman]

A dominant PV a bit south of where the OP GFS has it wouldn't be bad...closer to Hudson Bay...that is what produced 1993-1994 over New England..it was so dominant, that we were nearly always cold on the southern reaches of its domain and cashed in on its multiple events on its southern periphery. But I do not believe that pattern because that type of pattern would likely require a -EPO which is not happening IMHO any time soon even though the GFS tries to show a semblance of that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You and I are old, Weatherfella, Ginx and SkiMRG are prehistoric (kidding guys ) but we all remember those winters. For me it was the 80s, for those guys probably the 80s and early 70s. This stinks to me like those 80s years. I have a lot of hope for January because frankly I agree with Kev and others that said the same models that forecast a ho hum mid-late December were less than great for this week/next week. That said as we start to get into the loooong range of the op models we see the pattern resetting towards ugly. If it's 12/8 and we have the pattern reloading out in AK now it's Xmas before we see a change. That's normal winter. So long as it actually changes.

Pretty much for sure we're not going to be skating on shallow ponds and bogs pre-xmas near the Cape this year. That's fine, the last 2-3 years were the anomaly. 3 white xmas'es in a row on the Cape are unheard of.

Funny to see you guys mention the 80s....I have been beating that drum over the course of the last couple of days, but it had seemingly fallen on deaf ears.

[ORH_wxman]

Funny to see you guys mention the 80s....I have been beating that drum over the course of the last couple of days, but it had seemingly fallen on deaf ears.

I'd be surprised if we saw an 80s pattern this winter...completely different PAC regime. But doesn't mean we can't get a rogue winter like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd be surprised if we saw an 80s pattern this winter...completely different PAC regime. But doesn't mean we can't get a rogue winter like that.

I don't mean the whole winter....just this stretch.

[OSUmetstud]

at least the gfs looks nice around day 10....that's a pretty nice west coast ridge there for a few days.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is insufferable

[ORH_wxman]

This is insufferable

Warm patterns generally are. I agree. But we can always play frisbee golf.

[OSUmetstud]

GEFS has average 850temps for SNE from about 216 to 300 hours....then below normal temperature for SNE from 300 to 384 hours.

[skierinvermont]

Warm patterns generally are. I agree. But we can always play frisbee golf.

You never struck me as the frisbee golf type

[Logan11]

It looks infinitely better post 192 hrs than the same period looked on the model runs of two days ago.....whether it is a permanent pattern change or not. The lakes will come alive.

GEFS has average 850temps for SNE from about 216 to 300 hours....then below normal temperature for SNE from 300 to 384 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

You never struck me as the frisbee golf type !

I'm not really. Its fun, but I am not very skillful at frisbee golf....I usually do actual golf since I was once pretty good and played in high school. Now I'm just a hacker, but probably a skillful hacker.

[OSUmetstud]

It looks infinitely better post 192 hrs than the same period looked on the model runs of two days ago.....whether it is a permanent pattern change or not. The lakes will come alive.

yeah lakes are starting to look good for that early December period...we'll see. Ryan's best hope might for something substantial be the Bills game on Dec. 2nd.

[Logan11]

Even though I'm 130 miles or so from like Oswego, I still get some fun squalls and "few inch" events several times a winter. So I'll hope for some wnw flow events.

yeah lakes are starting to look good for that early December period...we'll see. Ryan's best hope might for something substantial be the Bills game on Dec. 2nd.

[Typhoon Tip]

Warm patterns generally are. I agree. But we can always play frisbee golf.

You should play with us - you'd like it. It's fun dude. You'd get hooked. Barre is 15 drive from you.

But the insufferable is because I disagree with the warm spin going on here. I agree with the "how long will it last" question - sure. But I think you guys are off in basing this all on Euro weeklies, or even the Euro ensembles, which are clearly in a state of flux as the changes in the WPO/NPO are transitional. There are just as many reason to spin cooler - it's interesting sociology that those are being avoided. Spin is bad either direction, so I don't encourage it.

I still think the discussion points I tried to convey early on are in play. Yet, this morphed ...engineered really, in 5 pages or so into doubts that are just as veraciously refuted as cold is supported.

Steep NW deep layer flow establishes in the operational GFS through Canada during the same time the GFS ensemble derived positive PNA is scheduled to arrive, by Dec 1, and the operational Euro more than less jumped on board 00z, and 12z today - smoothing details. It will be interesting if the Euro operational arrives back to the zonal and or warm at least excuse imaginable; as much as that would suck, it wouldn't' surprise me to see a run or two drop the idea. Typical during transitional times.

I'm getting frustrated by this.

[ORH_wxman]

You should play with us - you'd like it. It's fun dude. You'd get hooked. Barre is 15 drive from you.

But the insufferable is because I disagree with the warm spin going on here. I agree with the "how long will it last" question - sure. But I think you guys are off in basing this all on Euro weeklies, or even the Euro ensembles, which are clearly in a state of flux as the changes in the WPO/NPO are transitional. There are just as many reason to spin cooler - it's interesting sociology that those are being avoided. Spin is bad either direction, so I don't encourage it.

I still think the discussion points I tried to convey early on are in play. Yet, this morphed ...engineered really, in 5 pages or so into doubts that are just as veraciously refuted as cold is supported.

Steep NW deep layer flow establishes in the operational GFS through Canada during the same time the GFS ensemble derived positive PNA is scheduled to arrive, by Dec 1, and the operational Euro more than less jumped on board 00z, and 12z today - smoothing details. It will be interesting if the Euro operational arrives back to the zonal and or warm at least excuse imaginable; as much as that would suck, it wouldn't' surprise me to see a run or two drop the idea. Typical during transitional times.

I'm getting frustrated by this.

I don;t think many disgaree with you on a colder period in early December, but I think its transient and many others think so too. No pattern is 100% cold or warm for 15 straight days unless you are in an extreme pattern which does happen from time to time...this one isn't obviously. But I disagree that we are in a big regime change...I do agree with you that we have a shot at a period of semi-below avg temps (like -5 to -10 for a couple days and then modestly less than that surrounding it) but its going to be surrounded by more torch periods.

That is the gist of my posts. I do think we have a shot at some cold and possible a realistic snow event in early December. But I do not think we are primed for a long term below average temp regime with multiple chances on a train like we love to see. I think I've been fairly clear that we can see some cold shots and some snow threats despite this hideous hemispheric pattern in the mean....we get that PNA spike like you talk about which will def give us a chance at some cold and an event or two....but no blocking at all...so it will be a roll of the dice...we have the latitude to get away with this sometimes, which is why its a roll of the dice.

I do agree the cold will come in on a +PNA, but its not a big arctic outbreak, and it can get advected out more easily than usual because the source region isn't that impressive. I'm not sure you disagree with me that much...maybe just in the manner of the delivery here.

I don't like the long wave pattern overall for sustain cold and snow chance, but def think we have a window in early Dec. Maybe I'm wrong....and we get more sustained cold...I'd happily be glad to admit I was wrong since LR forecasting isn't my forte.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don;t think many disgaree with you on a colder period in early December, but I think its transient and many others think so too. No pattern is 100% cold or warm for 15 straight days unless you are in an extreme pattern which does happen from time to time...this one isn't obviously. But I disagree that we are in a big regime change...I do agree with you that we have a shot at a period of semi-below avg temps (like -5 to -10 for a couple days and then modestly less than that surrounding it) but its going to be surrounded by more torch periods.

That is the gist of my posts. I do think we have a shot at some cold and possible a realistic snow event in early December. But I do not think we are primed for a long term below average temp regime with multiple chances on a train like we love to see. I think I've been fairly clear that we can see some cold shots and some snow threats despite this hideous hemispheric pattern in the mean....we get that PNA spike like you talk about which will def give us a chance at some cold and an event or two....but no blocking at all...so it will be a roll of the dice...we have the latitude to get away with this sometimes, which is why its a roll of the dice.

I do agree the cold will come in on a +PNA, but its not a big arctic outbreak, and it can get advected out more easily than usual because the source region isn't that impressive. I'm not sure you disagree with me that much...maybe just in the manner of the delivery here.

I don't like the long wave pattern overall for sustain cold and snow chance, but def think we have a window in early Dec. Maybe I'm wrong....and we get more sustained cold...I'd happily be glad to admit I was wrong since LR forecasting isn't my forte.

Not sure. I did say that the question as to how long is certainly valid - so perhaps there is more agreement there than thought.

I will say that a pattern change is afoot. If that leads to warm scenarios after the fact, it don't believe it will be for the same reasons as the current pattern - we'll have to ferret those out.

I will go on record as saying I don't care when things are warm or cold. I care about getting it right. Right now, I don't think it is appropriate, given the what was outlined, to collapse toward warmth. I haven't read much that logically defines why.

[CoastalWx]

It continues to try and slowly improve on the ensembles. The GFS ensembles seem the most bullish with retrograding the vortex into ne Siberia and develop a nice ridge out west. We also have slight riding in the NATL. Verbatim it would probably be good for us.

Euro ensembles still have the vortex a little se closer to the Bering Sea and raging + NAO. The result is a warmer pattern for us, but still a cool down overall. It looks like a big gradient pattern on the euro ensembles. Perhaps a couple of SWFE early on with that trough over the sw US. Hopefully our latitude will help, but with a +NAO...we walk the line. Could be milder solutions in the beginning of the month.

The one thing I'm watching, is ridging over western Russia. The coldest air is aligned from north of AK through the Davis Straits. This western Russia ridge may try to flex and push the PV south...closer to Hudson Bay. I've seen it before. lets root for that because it would really help out.

So no, I don't think we are seeing a change to sustained cold and snow, but it does look a little better overall. I'm still wary of more events like this upcoming one, with NNE cashing in and SNE getting screwed...but those details cannot be determined right now.

[weathafella]

The pattern change begins 12/10 and is complete 12/25.

Morning folks.......nice snow dump within a 2 hour drive from Boston this week.

[mahk_webstah]

The pattern change begins 12/10 and is complete 12/25.

Morning folks.......nice snow dump within a 2 hour drive from Boston this week.

Actually I'm only one hour 20 minutes at 75mph

You notice how we keep getting overperforming big qpf events? Ever since August, consistently. Happening again this week. Living up here, that is a pattern I like because in winter will get a lot of snow even it is 32F events....even in a mild winter.

[weathafella]

Actually I'm only one hour 20 minutes at 75mph <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />

You notice how we keep getting overperforming big qpf events? Ever since August, consistently. Happening again this week. Living up here, that is a pattern I like because in winter will get a lot of snow even it is 32F events....even in a mild winter.

I kind of thought it was closer but hadn't checked the forecast close enough. Over performer which until 24 hours ago looked mainly wet.

[Damage In Tolland]

yeah lakes are starting to look good for that early December period...we'll see. Ryan's best hope might for something substantial be the Bills game on Dec. 2nd.

That would be me..not Ryan..it's looking more and more like I might be in Buffalo during a monster lake effect outbreak in Western NY

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro looks fairly good next week after we get that cut off to move off south of us watching Louisville and Cincy get a foot of snow..while we get 50's and screaming soueasterlies