Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[CT Rain]

I think sometimes when we are negative about that pattern...people think we are saying anything remotely winter is not possible. What are you gonna do....lol.

I think part of it is for some reason these pattern threads are getting a lot of play from the weenies. Normally they're pretty dull and don't generate much interest while the tracking the next 1" of snow in orh thread gets pages of replies per model run.

If we are having a conversation about the pattern it's a lot of generalities. People need to realize that.

[powderfreak]

Bingo.

I hate discussing a sh*tty pattern, but it is what it is.

Yeah, I feel like we should rename the board to something that has to do with Winter Weather Addictions and this is the place people come for therapy or something.

[Ginx snewx]

I think sometimes when we are negative about that pattern...people think we are saying anything remotely winter is not possible. What are you gonna do....lol.

not me bro, I am saying the pattern sucks until the fIrst week of Dec then we see changes for the better. You guys are saying the vortex reloads after a 5 day relaxation. I differ. Not for nothing but some people do have different opinions.

[Ginx snewx]

This is a weather board... not a snow cheerleading board. We shouldn't be judging pro mets based on how much they say it will snow or be cold in a given backyard. Yes we all love winter but we need to remember that sometimes it does get to be a bit too emotional in here. I'm as guilty as the next person, but psychology (ie negativity or optimistic) really isn't in play with the weather... it is what it is and everyone has their opinions.

And for the record I definitely remember Ryan saying that Dec 1-5 could be at least seasonably chilly. It doesn't really matter though because the next 15-20 days will average above normal just based on what will happen in the 7 days starting on Friday.

oh please, they can judge us though, hmmm. This is Ryan's FB by the way. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan

The weather pattern in general looks exceptionally warm the next 15-20 days. December looks to start out quite warm after a warm end to November.

I have a right to my opinion, who is judging anyone. And who the heck is emotional?

[CT Rain]

oh please, they can judge us though, hmmm. This is Ryan's FB by the way. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan

The weather pattern in general looks exceptionally warm the next 15-20 days. December looks to start out quite warm after a warm end to November.

I have a right to my opinion, who is judging anyone. And who the heck is emotional?

Yup.

[Ginx snewx]

I think part of it is for some reason these pattern threads are getting a lot of play from the weenies. Normally they're pretty dull and don't generate much interest while the tracking the next 1" of snow in orh thread gets pages of replies per model run.

If we are having a conversation about the pattern it's a lot of generalities. People need to realize that.

so anyone who does not follow your reasoning is a weenie?

[CT Rain]

so anyone who does not follow your reasoning is a weenie?

Anyone who can look at the current pattern and every available piece of data through Dec 10 who doesn't think the pattern looks very warm has the weenie goggles on.

[CoastalWx]

not me bro, I am saying the pattern sucks until the fIrst week of Dec then we see changes for the better. You guys are saying the vortex reloads after a 5 day relaxation. I differ. Not for nothing but some people do have different opinions.

I think Ryan has a point. Many times we are talking generalities, we aren't necessarily saying it couldn't do X or Y. Of course everyone has opinions.

I think we are saying we wouldn't be shocked if it did reload. In the meantime, hopefully we can pop some ridging out in western Canada.

[CT Rain]

I think Ryan has a point. Many times we are talking generalities, we aren't necessarily saying it couldn't do X or Y. Of course everyone has opinions.

I think we are saying we wouldn't be shocked if it did reload. In the meantime, hopefully we can pop some ridging out in western Canada.

Saying we're going through a 15-20 day very warm pattern doesn't say you can't have 3 cold or even very cold days. Hell, you could even get snow.

The problem we have right now is virtually every possible thing going against us. In some cases going really against us.

It's going to take time because things suck so bad. Once we get rid of the +EPO (whether it's gone for good by 12/10 or 12/25) we still don't have a particularly friendly looking AO and high latitude blocking.

[Ginx snewx]

Weenie goggles and all say this is not a torch, sorry to differ

[powderfreak]

oh please, they can judge us though, hmmm. This is Ryan's FB by the way. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan

The weather pattern in general looks exceptionally warm the next 15-20 days. December looks to start out quite warm after a warm end to November.

I have a right to my opinion, who is judging anyone. And who the heck is emotional?

Ginx... settle down buddy haha. If you read my post and who I replied to it was to Blizz's post about the constant negativity and how he likes some mets more because they post the positives of the pattern. That post had absolutely nothing to do with you, lol.

[Ginx snewx]

Ginx... settle down buddy haha. If you read my post and who I replied to it was to Blizz's post about the constant negativity and how he likes some mets more because they post the positives of the pattern. That post had absolutely nothing to do with you, lol.

Oh I am settled bro, day off and just cracked a cold one. I am far from emotional, just my posting style. Ryan shot me the SYZYGY bullet, just firing back, no ill at all. I can absolutely see their points but I disagree that torch torch torch is what we see for the next four weeks.

[CT Rain]

And the GEFS still have negative height anomalies over Alaska through 12/7.

[Mr Torchey]

Its been a tough pattern for winter weather lovers however, the interior has already had a snowbomb and a historical one at that. Strange the last couple years many may have been spoiled or led astray by freak snows. I do not understand the worry or panic right now, its Nov 21st and outside of the greens and whites is it really supposed to snow a lot right now? Temps have certainly been warm, but I was just looking at the nne thread and the snow guns are blazing with 6-12 on the way where its supposed to snow this time of year.

As the weeks progress, the temps will come down following climo so even if its slightly above those in the interior have chances of cashing in, and on the CP its a roll of the dice. After moving up here from SC it seemed that it was always around xmas to the first of the year to Expect snow down here.

Winter will come, it may not be as harsh and snow filled as last, but I am sure there will be plenty of dendrites for all, and after the extreme weather of the last few years it would be foolish to count anything out.

Happy Thanksgiving!

[CoastalWx]

Saying we're going through a 15-20 day very warm pattern doesn't say you can't have 3 cold or even very cold days. Hell, you could even get snow.

The problem we have right now is virtually every possible thing going against us. In some cases going really against us.

It's going to take time because things suck so bad. Once we get rid of the +EPO (whether it's gone for good by 12/10 or 12/25) we still don't have a particularly friendly looking AO and high latitude blocking.

I guess if there is any good news, I think the vortex backs up just enough to help with a little ridging. The problem is that SNE is on the fence, and if that vortex moves east again...it's another mild period without any blocking. We are kind of fighting a split flow with a sw trough and ridging over western Canada. If it is timed right, it can mean good things, but it can mean bad things too.

[weathafella]

It's chilly tonight vs most of the past week. And.....this perhaps being the most important fact...it's 11/21! Messenger's normal max today is probably 50 as is Boston's. Temps in the 50snare not really torches until 12/1.

[powderfreak]

Oh I am settled bro, day off and just cracked a cold one. I am far from emotional, just my posting style. Ryan shot me the SYZYGY bullet, just firing back, no ill at all. I can absolutely see their points but I disagree that torch torch torch is what we see for the next four weeks.

Cheers to that.

I honestly hate dabbling into long-term weather patterns as it just isn't my thing, so I'm heading back to lurking in this thread. Fascinating stuff you guys discuss though with the MJO and various indices.

[CT Rain]

I guess if there is any good news, I think the vortex backs up just enough to help with a little ridging. The problem is that SNE is on the fence, and if that vortex moves east again...it's another mild period without any blocking. We are kind of fighting a split flow with a sw trough and ridging over western Canada. If it is timed right, it can mean good things, but it can mean bad things too.

Yeah exactly. Pattern could have some surprised in it later on. I'd like to get in the 8-10 day time frame and make sure that retrograding PV pans out.

Again like we've been saying for days... the pattern is still bad. There's no big pattern change. But if we're lucky we could cash in with just enough west coast ridging and some SWFEs.

Blocking will be non-existent.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah exactly. Pattern could have some surprised in it later on. I'd like to get in the 8-10 day time frame and make sure that retrograding PV pans out.

Again like we've been saying for days... the pattern is still bad. There's no big pattern change. But if we're lucky we could cash in with just enough west coast ridging and some SWFEs.

Blocking will be non-existent.

That part sucks. Hopefully we can get a little ridging on both sides of NAMR because it can act to funnel some cold in. The AO in general seems locked + for now.

[ORH_wxman]

SNE can still score on a putrid AO pattern with a little bit of N ATL ridging (still a +NAO) and a bit of PNA ridging in the PAC NW...December 1975 and December 1956 are examples of this. To a lesser extent 2007...that pattern wasn't quite as terrible, but it wasn't exactly good (as evidence by the close calls between a good December and a really bad one between BOS and NYC)...tight gradient we generally ended up on the snowier side of it.

The key with a +AO is getting some type of geopotential gradient fairly close to us...the crap years like 1999 didn't have that.

[CT Rain]

That part sucks. Hopefully we can get a little ridging on both sides of NAMR because it can act to funnel some cold in. The AO in general seems locked + for now.

Yeah that's why you can tell the pattern sucks so bad. We're hoping for a pattern change that just gets rid of a NPAC from hell. We're not even worried about getting some good blocking bc that's not in the cards.

[earthlight]

And the GEFS still have negative height anomalies over Alaska through 12/7.

Yeah, noted this earlier and cringed. They build them back with fairly robust negative anomalies on the mean through the end of the run. Lines up well with their thinking on the MJO.

[CT Rain]

SNE can still score on a putrid AO pattern with a little bit of N ATL ridging (still a +NAO) and a bit of PNA ridging in the PAC NW...December 1975 and December 1956 are examples of this. To a lesser extent 2007...that pattern wasn't quite as terrible, but it wasn't exactly good (as evidence by the close calls between a good December and a really bad one between BOS and NYC)...tight gradient we generally ended up on the snowier side of it.

The key with a +AO is getting some type of geopotential gradient fairly close to us...the crap years like 1999 didn't have that.

Yeah and with some luck we may be able to do it. I think if we're lucky we could get the pattern to change just enough to deliver seasonal temps and a snow threat.

This pattern will be problematic for the CP for most of Dec I think.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah and with some luck we may be able to do it. I think if we're lucky we could get the pattern to change just enough to deliver seasonal temps and a snow threat.

This pattern will be problematic for the CP for most of Dec I think.

Yeah I think any threats we get out of this are likely to be close call SWFEs as you suggested before. Get enough of the gradient pressed southward into our area and hope it holds up enough in a few OH valley systems coming ENE. I suppose a really well timed Rockies ridge could make for a redeveloper/Miller B type storm, but lack of blocking will certainly make it tougher.

[CT Rain]

Yeah I think any threats we get out of this are likely to be close call SWFEs as you suggested before. Get enough of the gradient pressed southward into our area and hope it holds up enough in a few OH valley systems coming ENE. I suppose a really well timed Rockies ridge could make for a redeveloper/Miller B type storm, but lack of blocking will certainly make it tougher.

Yeah not great but hopefully we get something.

We need to get a D6 or D7 threat to get the weenies out of the pattern threads. They're driving themselves crazy!!!

[Ginx snewx]

Hard to believe its only Nov 21 and some NH VT ME folks could be looking at yet another footer plus. As bad as it is and has been that's insane. Do not expect snow until Christmas or usually after anyway but seems every needle wants to get threaded this year, look forward to Dec 4-7 for another needle threader before the next warmup.

[toronto blizzard]

Is there a possibility that the euro weeklies are good for my area (Toronto) for any potential snow and cold. I know that this is a new england forum but are the weeklies better for my area?

[Ginx snewx]

Is there a possibility that the euro weeklies are good for my area (Toronto) for any potential snow and cold. I know that this is a new england forum but are the weeklies better for my area?

Torch torch torch

[toronto blizzard]

Torch torch torch

No seriously man

[Ginx snewx]

No seriously man

LOL if it's a torch for us I would imagine its not much better for you but take it one day at a time.