Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[Organizing Low]

You can believe what you want, but we will see the Nov 25-Dec 2 verification when it comes out.

You are choosing to pick little chinks in the armor to disprove that they got the pattern wrong. Just because a storm cuts off and gives a relatively small region some snow, does not mean its 7 day mean pattern was off. It showed abysmal heights over AK which will verify. It showed little cold air over the plains which will verify...it showed the lack of cross polar flow which will verify.

The weeklies are meant to use as a tool to get a general idea of the large scale pattern, not to try and forecast if someone will see a snowstorm 13 days out. Of course there will always be some shorter scale variance that you can try and use to disprove the larger point, but that logic fails when you look at the whole N Hemisphere.

Week 4 is always quite volatile so I wouldn't put much stock into it, but I guarantee you the week 2 map will look pretty solid once we come to verification.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

LOL, what a ray of sunshine.

I'm sure at your elevation you'll be the Jay Peak of SNE over the next month. Giant dendrites piled higher than Santa's chestnuts. Smile MRG it'll change in 2012. Big Big 2012 coming.

The constant negativity just gets tiresome is all. At least you and Will mention some positives that you see.

Hard to say he's being negative when we're going to be in the 50s and 60s this weekend and the best we can hope for ATPIT is a few days of transient cold.

when we look at the preponderance of forecasts issued for late fall and winter, most have been downright terrible. Pretty much every forecaster anticipated a bad december for snow/cold, if that fails after the November peformance on a 1-2 month lead long range forecast will have taken a beating.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/wsi-late-fall-early-winter-outlook_2011-09-19

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/noaa-winter-outlook_2011-10-20

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-monster-snowstorms-for-th/55833

[ORH_wxman]

Part of the problem is that all of us are hanging on each ensemble run/each weekly run. I think it would benefit everyone..(probably esp. me)..if we took a few steps away and analyzed things again in a few days. Looking for changes every 12 hours has proven to be fruitless and frustrating.

The time for when things likely get better isn't going to be seen on the ensemble for another week or so. The ensembles are generally going to show the same thing every 12 hours for the D10-15 range...the only small changes might be the nuances in that transient +PNA pattern which would be our window to probably sneak in an event or two in early December.

December 1996, December 1997, and December 2001 all saw big events for at least part of SNE during a garbage long wave pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm sure at your elevation you'll be the Jay Peak of SNE over the next month. Giant dendrites piled higher than Santa's chestnuts. Smile MRG it'll change in 2012. Big Big 2012 coming.

Hard to say he's being negative when we're going to be in the 50s and 60s this weekend and the best we can hope for ATPIT is a few days of transient cold.

when we look at the preponderance of forecasts issued for late fall and winter, most have been downright terrible. Pretty much every forecaster anticipated a bad december for snow/cold, if that fails after the November peformance on a 1-2 month lead long range forecast will have taken a beating.

http://www.weather.c...look_2011-09-19

http://www.weather.c...look_2011-10-20

http://www.accuweath...ms-for-th/55833

Actually every single long range met was forecasting a cold/snowy Dec. and only recently changed that

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Who wants to guess the date of the next 1" of snow at Logan Airport?

I'm going with 1/5/2012.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Actually every single long range met was forecasting a cold/snowy Dec. and only recently changed that

Kev that's what I meant...sorry about that...bad as in cold/snowy/stormy. You are right I'm not aware of any that said otherwise. We're starting to see quite a few give signs that 12/1 there will be a change in the forecast and I tihnk we'd all agree by then we should have a clear picture of December.

[ORH_wxman]

Who wants to guess the date of the next 1" of snow at Logan Airport?

I'm going with 1/5/2012.

I don't think it will be that bad.

[ski MRG]

I'm sure at your elevation you'll be the Jay Peak of SNE over the next month. Giant dendrites piled higher than Santa's chestnuts. Smile MRG it'll change in 2012. Big Big 2012 coming.

Hard to say he's being negative when we're going to be in the 50s and 60s this weekend and the best we can hope for ATPIT is a few days of transient cold.

when we look at the preponderance of forecasts issued for late fall and winter, most have been downright terrible. Pretty much every forecaster anticipated a bad december for snow/cold, if that fails after the November peformance on a 1-2 month lead long range forecast will have taken a beating.

http://www.weather.c...look_2011-09-19

http://www.weather.c...look_2011-10-20

http://www.accuweath...ms-for-th/55833

I'm almost always smiling Scott. I'm not worried in the least. It'll find a way tpo snow here. It usually does. Some of the analog years being kicked around right now were very good seasons here. Patience is a virtue.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah. I think people need to understand... like Will posted earlier... though we're very down and negative about the pattern... the mets in here understand that a crappy looking pattern can deliver some snow if things work out just right. It can happen. Just not that easy for it to happen.

Ginx is getting all hot and bothered that no one is talking about a closed low coinciding with a szygy and a -3 departure day. No one really cares about that though. For day 10-20 we're not talking about specific threats but rather the hemispheric pattern which just sucks right now. I've said for weeks I don't mind going through this now... much better in late Nov than late Dec.

LOL hot and bothered, you said torch torch torch. You know that is not true for the first week of Dec Ryan. You exaggerated, I called you on it so you in turn discredit me by throwing out the syszgy BS. Hemispherically sucked in 70/71 too. Your call the other day for the next 15-20 days to be way above average? Let's keep track.

[earthlight]

The constant negativity just gets tiresome is all. At least you and Will mention some positives that you see.

I think a lot of it is realistic negativity, that may not be what you want to hear but it's the truth..probably why it gets tiresome quickly as well. Obviously every pattern can produce some kind of surprise event, etc...but this pattern flat out stinks through 200 hours and that's being generous. Things are starting to look a little better as we head towards D8-10+ on the GEFS and ECMWF at least. It gets tiresome when you hear crappy news over and over, it's obviously not what anybody here wants...we are all freaks who want to see wind driven snow...but I don't think it's worth sugar coating at this point. We'll get through it.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I don't think it will be that bad.

I was thinking around 12/20 up until the last few days, just have a hunch the change will be delayed and like the whack a mole game the ugly pattern will try to recover one more time mid December on a smaller scale.

[CoastalWx]

Oh yeah I gotcha... I thought you meant Canada was balls cold. My bad.

It looked like the colder air wasn't that far off. I misjudged some of the anomalies, so yeah it isn't balls cold, but it doesn't appear torched either.

[earthlight]

Speaking of encouragement, the GEFS offer at least some hope of a slow transition towards a more wintry pattern as we head into the first week of December. With the wavelengths changing I would think there may be a (very) small window of opportunity as the GOA vortex retrogrades and the associated ridging ahead of it propagates through the favorable blocking areas. The GFS has this between 288-300 hours...with a brief ridge building into the NE Pacific and what seems to be a signal for some cold air into the Northeast.

After this, and we're getting into la-la land... but a bit of "turn your head and look away" as the GEFS rebuild the GOA vortex towards the end of the run on the height anomalies.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

[CoastalWx]

Part of the problem is that all of us are hanging on each ensemble run/each weekly run. I think it would benefit everyone..(probably esp. me)..if we took a few steps away and analyzed things again in a few days. Looking for changes every 12 hours has proven to be fruitless and frustrating.

I didn't want to say anything yesterday and today, but I saw a few posts about winter returning when they read the d10 euro op and I felt compelled to talk about it.

The talk about swfe in the first week is just a guess and it could be a miller b for all I know. While there was some ridging in the west, heights were pretty high over the east and up into Newfoundland. We also had a trough in the west. It just looked SWFE-ish to me...and not that favorable. But again, if the ridge is strong enough..it could be a miller b.

[earthlight]

Hey Will, funny to see this after you mentioned how laughably bad the MJO was in 07/08. GFS OP takes the MJO impulse through phases 2-3 and then into the COD before looping it right back into the wrong direction.

[ORH_wxman]

Hey Will, funny to see this after you mentioned how laughably bad the MJO was in 07/08. GFS OP takes the MJO impulse through phases 2-3 and then into the COD before looping it right back into the wrong direction.

ECM keeps it stronger through phase 4...but I'm not sure its going to make it to phase 5/6 in a potent enough manner which is what we need to break down the AK vortex.

[Ginx snewx]

Hey Will, funny to see this after you mentioned how laughably bad the MJO was in 07/08. GFS OP takes the MJO impulse through phases 2-3 and then into the COD before looping it right back into the wrong direction.

Lots of different solutions

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[CoastalWx]

What's the site that has those old MJO progs? Is it ABOM?

[Ginx snewx]

ECM keeps it stronger through phase 4...but I'm not sure its going to make it to phase 5/6 in a potent enough manner which is what we need to break down the AK vortex.

[ORH_wxman]

What's the site that has those old MJO progs? Is it ABOM?

There's two site that have old MJO data...this one is good for winter, but its only updated through 2008-2009 winter

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phasediag.list.htm

The BOM site is here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

I wish that one had DJF lumped together like the other...instead they do OND and JFM.

[ORH_wxman]

You can see how the mean is getting closer and closer to the circle of death after being decent in phase 4. Hopefully it remains robust through phase 6.

[CoastalWx]

There's two site that have old MJO data...this one is good for winter, but its only updated through 2008-2009 winter

http://www.cawcr.gov...sediag.list.htm

The BOM site is here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

I wish that one had DJF lumped together like the other...instead they do OND and JFM.

That's it....thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

You can see how the mean is getting closer and closer to the circle of death after being decent in phase 4. Hopefully it remains robust through phase 6.

Thanks for the link to that archive site, cool, man judging by MJO you would have thought 93/94 would have been a dead ratter.

[CT Rain]

LOL hot and bothered, you said torch torch torch. You know that is not true for the first week of Dec Ryan. You exaggerated, I called you on it so you in turn discredit me by throwing out the syszgy BS. Hemispherically sucked in 70/71 too. Your call the other day for the next 15-20 days to be way above average? Let's keep track.

Didn't say that but keep trying.

The PATTERN looks bad. I've said for a week that a transient or even a week of seasonable WX with a cold shot is possible.

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks for the link to that archive site, cool, man judging by MJO you would have thought 93/94 would have been a dead ratter.

The MJO was pretty much a non-factor in '93-'94 most of the winter...you can see how often it was in the COD, so it wasn't doing much. The one time it had a really robust wave was when we had our Feb '94 torch later in the month and the MJO def helped cause that.

[Ginx snewx]

Didn't say that but keep trying.

The PATTERN looks bad. I've said for a week that a transient or even a week of seasonable WX with a cold shot is possible.

Man I would love to see what would happen on the south coast with that mega UL to our west. That's an extreme fetch. Keep thinking about the 74 superstorm in AK and then the 74 storm in the GL. Love the chaos.

[CoastalWx]

Didn't say that but keep trying.

The PATTERN looks bad. I've said for a week that a transient or even a week of seasonable WX with a cold shot is possible.

I think sometimes when we are negative about that pattern...people think we are saying anything remotely winter is not possible. What are you gonna do....lol.

[Ginx snewx]

If it can't snow, this will do.

[powderfreak]

The constant negativity just gets tiresome is all. At least you and Will mention some positives that you see.

This is a weather board... not a snow cheerleading board. We shouldn't be judging pro mets based on how much they say it will snow or be cold in a given backyard. Yes we all love winter but we need to remember that sometimes it does get to be a bit too emotional in here. I'm as guilty as the next person, but psychology (ie negativity or optimistic) really isn't in play with the weather... it is what it is and everyone has their opinions.

And for the record I definitely remember Ryan saying that Dec 1-5 could be at least seasonably chilly. It doesn't really matter though because the next 15-20 days will average above normal just based on what will happen in the 7 days starting on Friday.

[CoastalWx]

This is a weather board... not a snow cheerleading board. Yes we all love winter but we need to remember that sometimes it does get to be a bit too emotional in here. I'm as guilty as the next person, but psychology (ie negativity or optimistic) really isn't in play with the weather... it is what it is and everyone has their opinions.

Bingo.

I hate discussing a sh*tty pattern, but it is what it is.