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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Looks fairly similar to what I came up with overall. I'm thinking it'll be a bit of a gradient winter with somewhat above average snowfall in NNE, near average in SNE and northern Mid-Atlantic, somewhat below average south of 40° N. The SE ridge may lead to somewhat milder weather further south as well. This will, of course, change if the NAO/AO average out more deeply negative than what I'm thinking. Forecast is in the blog link in my sig.

Thanks man! I'm going 50/50 for December. The atmosphere just seems to uncetain esp with the unfavorable MJO and NAO/AO phase. I dont think the NAO/AO will average out deeply negative this Winter.

I think the first 10 days of Dec are still going to avg out positive departures. We see the potential for a 2 day warm spell after the initial "CAA" from the cutoff...."CAA" in quotes because the air mass behind it is pitiful.

Our 3-5 day cold shot may be delayed until closer to Dec 6-10...Dec 3 looks chilly but mostly just for a day. Hopefully something pans out that weekend but its likely a long shot. The pattern seems to support a few more threats post Dec 5 should it set up like shown.

Its easy to see some snide remarks about details in the forecast which are mostly Monday Morning QBing...probably because people don't want to hear bad news and want to invalidate the forecasts...but the general premise behind a long range forecast is to get a feel for 1 week chunks and not try and nail daily stuff because that is nearly impossible to do. The ideas set forth by the ensembles have looked to be pretty solid. They called for the end of Nov torch and they called for the mild lingering into early Dec which looks to verify. The only change we've really seen is a possibly transient -EPO period after Dec 6 that dumps enough cold air into Canada that might help our the gradient pattern. That is the furthest range in the ensembles anyway so we'd expect a few changes as we get closer. It does appear though that the low heights there want to reload.

I think the first 10-15 days of December will be sh!t across the East. The GFS and and Euro runs show a non existent STJ with hardly any storms forming. You'd at least expect one fantasy storm on the GFS runs but you dont see any decent storms forming thru Dec 10th. The MJO sucks and so does the Atlantic. Despite the EPO going slightly favorable the pattern itself is just too zonal for any consistent cold anomalies. I foresee a slight cool down like you say around Dec 5 but I think we may just warm-up again around Dec 10th towards the 15th. There after it becomes uncertain. It has resemblance to 75 and 07 somewhat.

The Euro torches Canada in the long range? What do the Euro weeklies/Ensembles depict?

I mean wtf. My average Low temp currently is 23F yet this entire upcoming week its above that including the past few days, how sad.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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LR GFS is brutal.. right back to where we were a week ago.. would make sense if the MJO evolution is correct.. let's see if the ensembles are similar. Last night the ensembles were cooler than the op.

You've been very steadfast in what you say and I appreciate your thoughts. I agree entirely. Sadly for all of us cold sustained winter lovers.

Thanks man! I'm going 50/50 for December. The atmosphere just seems to uncetain esp with the unfavorable MJO and NAO/AO phase. I dont think the NAO/AO will average out deeply negative this Winter.

I think the first 10-15 days of December will be sh!t across the East. The GFS and and Euro runs show a non existent STJ with hardly any storms forming. You'd at least expect one fantasy storm on the GFS runs but you dont see any decent storms forming thru Dec 10th. The MJO sucks and so does the Atlantic. Despite the EPO going slightly favorable the pattern itself is just too zonal for any consistent cold anomalies. I foresee a slight cool down like you say around Dec 5 but I think we may just warm-up again around Dec 10th towards the 15th. There after it becomes uncertain. It has resemblance to 75 and 07 somewhat.

The Euro torches Canada in the long range? What do the Euro weeklies/Ensembles depict?

I mean wtf. My average Low temp currently is 23F yet this entire upcoming week its above that including the past few days, how sad.

You nailed it with the GFS too. Not even a whiff of meaningful snow for 15 days. How often does that happen on the GFS? VERY telling IMO. If the model that gives us 750" in snow a winter is giving us a few...not good for the next 2 weeks.

Coastalwx, my sprinklers were on today and I'm going to have to mow again. Lawn is darkening up nice again, one last growth spurt to fill in the areas that I seeded in October. ASTOUNDING!

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Logan11

Logan11

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I remember a thankless winter in the early 90's where we had a split flow most of the time and every sub trop. origin low dug a hole out in the Southwest and cut off. Polar jet would dig nice troughs in the northeast periodically in response to + PNA, but always dry cold, never any juice added.

Now some mauler types would dig and miss too far east - nailing the Maritimes, perhaps Maine cashed in some...not sure. That was the year that Moncton, NB had over 50 inches from a storm I think.

It was a big LES year off Ontario so I would have got some here, but I only get window dressing type LES anyway.

You've been very steadfast in what you say and I appreciate your thoughts. I agree entirely. Sadly for all of us cold sustained winter lovers.

You nailed it with the GFS too. Not even a whiff of meaningful snow for 15 days. How often does that happen on the GFS? VERY telling IMO. If the model that gives us 750" in snow a winter is giving us a few...not good for the next 2 weeks.

Coastalwx, my sprinklers were on today and I'm going to have to mow again. Lawn is darkening up nice again, one last growth spurt to fill in the areas that I seeded in October. ASTOUNDING!

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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Good luck - not likely to happen. sorry. This has occurred to me several times over the years, and again recently I've relearned the lesson ... this forum has less to do with weather, and more a circuit for socializing. It's a commiseration nexus for an obsession with snow at that. Therein, the woe is me, and the 'who cares what the models say', et al, it's all for commiserating the fact that for some, an obsession over snow is an addiction that has no current fix and they use their right to post to vent that frustration. Those that share in that mentality sense it, join in, and viola! There's your "vibe" you were talking about. That vibe is not just a vibe, it is at times an immovable abject agenda; the only thing left for an addict with the shakes.

None of which requires actual weather to be blunt. It requires the advent or non-advent of snow. That is why I joked a month or so ago about some upstart creating a new forum out there upon the e-highway that has to do specifically and tediously with snow; whereupon while registering the new member encounters a page that states, "any Meteorological, intellectual discussion/debate will be strictly monitored for purposes of winter propagandizing".

This whole business of site usage falling off by 75% between circa April 15 and Sept 10 each year is really pretty telling. And ... I don't buy it that our only weather up here of interest is primarily snow, so it makes sense that is the focus; that's just not true and is a rationalization to defend what clearly is less weather interest, and more an obsession over snow. In the last year we've had record breaking heat waves, tornadoes, and a tropical storm. Sure some areas of the country have had it worse, others ...less exciting. But what? If the sensible weather is not mass hysteria and/or dystopian in character, that has to incur the same wrath by the village voice around here?! That's even worse than snow predilection - it's morally questionable. I love a good dystopia theme, too, but let's keep it in television and cinema. I am not disconnected from the consequences of 20" of snow prior to Halloween. There's something wrong with you if you wish on deathly scenarios like that - which that storm verified as, mind you.

You know, I remember saying to everyone that I would have been perfectly fine with that 2-3" of glop that fell two days prior. That would have been (and should have been for others) plenty of excitement in getting snow in the air before Halloween. Anything else was wanton of a disaster and I even wrote that I did not want to lose power for any reason, well before that event took place. My Meteorologist friend quipped to me how amusing it was that the snow had vanished 4 day later, leaving behind a pattern of destruction with no apparent cause - it was like a surgical power strike, to implant a specific result that crushed and shattered that wish NOT to lose power. Ha ha.

Yet there's all these clowns on here wringing crap like that on. I digress...

The constant yo-yoing up and down in sentiment is purely a function of whether that snow ID is getting a reach around that day or not. If not, posts attempt to cloak rage and despair (poorly I'd add...). If yes it's all brotherly love. Oh man. The funny thing is, I am not entirely beyond the pale here. sure, I have at times sensed less feeling of elation, too, when that good event disappears in the runs, or the teleconnectors split bringing in a bad "omen" for a pattern change toward brown earth during winter. I just have learned over the years to turn to other hobbies and interests during those times, and do so soon enough that the weather is not allowed to actually guide my mirth. It is probably my own psychology at work, but it really does more than just seem that as soon as I turn the cheek toward ancillary interest areas (life et al..), the darkness of the pattern becomes bright again.

Strongly disagree. What makes this place special is that it is both! Very very good met discussion in here it seems to me...and great chat.

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weathafella

weathafella

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LR GFS is brutal.. right back to where we were a week ago.. would make sense if the MJO evolution is correct.. let's see if the ensembles are similar. Last night the ensembles were cooler than the op.

Looks like everything is transient...warm,cold,warm,cool,mild,warm,cold..etc

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Strongly disagree. What makes this place special is that it is both! Very very good met discussion in here it seems to me...and great chat.

Nice - comment on the first sentence why don't you...

Not sure what you disagree with... I didn't say there was NO contribution or use Meteorologically; I said less that and more social, which anyone objectively would agree with.

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