Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[Tropopause_Fold]

Anyways back on topic....gradients bring SWFE so lets hope we can capitalize on it. There are defintely some cold shots modeled, so any approaching low from the southwest will likely introduce at least some ice anyways.

yeah at least the prospects for front-end frozen precip increase.

hopefully that developing offshore feature next saturday can do something too. odds seem fairly low but something to watch. pretty sharp s/w and some decent cold interacting with stupidly warm SSTs maybe allows for it to get its act together early enough to clip parts of the area.

[Damage In Tolland]

If Diane, who probably has been consistently cooler than you at night has been seeing it too....I'm sure it is there. It just may be dead from snapping in the earlier snow.

After the nasty things you said to her yesterday..I don't think you should be using her name in any context at all

[CoastalWx]

After the nasty things you said to her yesterday..I don't think you should be using her name in any context at all

Nice try.

[Damage In Tolland]

probably yeah. we've had some pretty chilly nights actually. even last night was middle 30s IMBY...was probably like 47F atop the glacier.

44 yesterday morning.. Lowest temp this year has been 26.3

[CoastalWx]

yeah at least the prospects for front-end frozen precip increase.

hopefully that developing offshore feature next saturday can do something too. odds seem fairly low but something to watch. pretty sharp s/w and some decent cold interacting with stupidly warm SSTs maybe allows for it to get its act together early enough to clip parts of the area.

If you go on E-wall...you can sort of see the types of storms that are possible. Warmer solutions if the ridge is too strong, coastal lows if the cold is deep enough, and lots of overrunning type deals too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice try.

She's offended..and quite frankly so am I

[CoastalWx]

She's offended..and quite frankly so am I

Nice try.

[HoarfrostHubb]

After the nasty things you said to her yesterday..I don't think you should be using her name in any context at all

We are all antsy for winter to arrive

Fella ftw

[ski MRG]

She's offended..and quite frankly so am I

Seemed out of character for Scooter. The warmth down there has him mean as a hornet. I just hope WxTrix doesn't catch wind of those hurtful comments. We should move this to the banter thread as Grandpa will be up soon.

[Srain]

Seemed out of character for Scooter. The warmth down there has him mean as a hornet. I just hope WxTrix doesn't catch wind of those hurtful comments. We should move this to the banter thread as Grandpa will be up soon.

Good morning Pete. Upper 20's down here tonight. Play nice up there...

[ski MRG]

Good morning Pete. Upper 20's down here tonight. Play nice up there...

Let's keep the banter in the banter thread. Ok? Geez. lol

[Mr Torchey]

weenie here, weenie there, reality says torch is back mid month everywhere.

Looks like at least 3-5 weeks before any "pattern change" locks in, next few days are downright torchtastic. Might be some snow in the distant interior and nne, but the coastal plain shall continue to burn burn burn.

[powderfreak]

Mid 20's overnight, crusty snow with more on the way by the weekend. It will be nice to have snow scour out the negative vibe in here. It's been like a funeral. ( Not directing this at anybody in particular mind you, just an overall vibe.)

I still love how people get annoyed at the "vibe" if its not 100% pro-snow and cold. Pete, I love snow just as much as anyone but this is a weather board; we don't need to always be cheerleading about winter. Lets talk about what is coming up and what the pattern is in an objective way, not through snow goggles. Honestly the posts that like "who cares what the models say, big snow and winter coming soon" doesn't really add much to the meteorological discussion. I'd rather read about what the weather is actually doing than just blowing off any notion of a mild pattern and cheerleading for the big snow and cold that is always just around the corner. It ends up just sounding like a group therapy session where a bunch of guys are telling each other don't worry, things will be ok.

[ski MRG]

I still love how people get annoyed at the "vibe" if its not 100% pro-snow and cold. Pete, I love snow just as much as anyone but this is a weather board; we don't need to always be cheerleading about winter. Lets talk about what is coming up and what the pattern is in an objective way, not through snow goggles. Honestly the posts that like "who cares what the models say, big snow and winter coming soon" doesn't really add much to the meteorological discussion. I'd rather read about what the weather is actually doing than just blowing off any notion of a mild pattern and cheerleading for the big snow and cold that is always just around the corner. It ends up just sounding like a group therapy session where a bunch of guys are telling each other don't worry, things will be ok.

I was kidding. Don't worry, things will be ok. BTW, just look at LL's post above yours. He is now some how spinning no pattern change until January. It's November. Silly.

[Mr Torchey]

I still love how people get annoyed at the "vibe" if its not 100% pro-snow and cold. Pete, I love snow just as much as anyone but this is a weather board; we don't need to always be cheerleading about winter. Lets talk about what is coming up and what the pattern is in an objective way, not through snow goggles. Honestly the posts that like "who cares what the models say, big snow and winter coming soon" doesn't really add much to the meteorological discussion. I'd rather read about what the weather is actually doing than just blowing off any notion of a mild pattern and cheerleading for the big snow and cold that is always just around the corner. It ends up just sounding like a group therapy session where a bunch of guys are telling each other don't worry, things will be ok.

Great post, I read through the threads this morning, and it was fantastic, you could sense that people were actually getting edgy over weather........I mean come on!

I still do not understand why most people are expecting winter automatically on Dec 1, I guess short term memory skews the reality. Winter will be here soon enough, but its certainly not locking up anytime soon.

Meanwhile, another 60+++ day, on the way to an historically warm autumn as expected.

[powderfreak]

I was kidding. Don't worry, things will be ok. BTW, just look at LL's post above yours. He is now some how spinning no pattern change until January. It's November. Silly.

I know it goes both ways, but I'd rather just read about what the pattern is doing and where it is going (nice stuff by Coastal and CapeCodwx this morning) from a meteorological standpoint aside from people just spinning it cold or warm. We all know where each poster stands by now, no reason to keep repeating it over and over and over again. I come in these long range threads to read the weather stuff as I'd like to get a sense of what we are looking at for snowmaking temperatures leading through mid December but posts that just say, "the cold is coming, have no fear" doesn't really help us who do use this forum in an operational way sometimes.

But now I am just contributing to the problem of off-topic discussion so I'm going back to lurking in these long range threads.

[weathafella]

I was shocked when he said there were roses and flowers blooming yesterday. They haven't had a freeze on the coast..so I guess that's why. Thankfully none of that nonsense here

BOS has been subfreezing. 11/24.....17 days late vs climo.

[CoastalWx]

I know it goes both ways, but I'd rather just read about what the pattern is doing and where it is going (nice stuff by Coastal and CapeCodwx this morning) from a meteorological standpoint aside from people just spinning it cold or warm. We all know where each poster stands by now, no reason to keep repeating it over and over and over again. I come here to read the weather stuff as I'd like to get a sense of what we are looking at for snowmaking temperatures leading through mid December but posts that just say, "the cold is coming, have no fear" doesn't really help us who do use this forum in an operational way sometimes.

But now I am just contributing to the problem of off-topic discussion so I'm going back to lurking in these long range threads.

There is probably some regional bias too. Pete may be more optimistic than many given his locale....heck even I may unintentionally display some negativity in my wording, but I try not too. I'm just happy to get some colder air in here.

[ski MRG]

I know it goes both ways, but I'd rather just read about what the pattern is doing and where it is going (nice stuff by Coastal and CapeCodwx this morning) from a meteorological standpoint aside from people just spinning it cold or warm. We all know where each poster stands by now, no reason to keep repeating it over and over and over again. I come in these long range threads to read the weather stuff as I'd like to get a sense of what we are looking at for snowmaking temperatures leading through mid December but posts that just say, "the cold is coming, have no fear" doesn't really help us who do use this forum in an operational way sometimes.

But now I am just contributing to the problem of off-topic discussion so I'm going back to lurking in these long range threads.

Me too.

[ORH_wxman]

I think the first 10 days of Dec are still going to avg out positive departures. We see the potential for a 2 day warm spell after the initial "CAA" from the cutoff...."CAA" in quotes because the air mass behind it is pitiful.

Our 3-5 day cold shot may be delayed until closer to Dec 6-10...Dec 3 looks chilly but mostly just for a day. Hopefully something pans out that weekend but its likely a long shot. The pattern seems to support a few more threats post Dec 5 should it set up like shown.

Its easy to see some snide remarks about details in the forecast which are mostly Monday Morning QBing...probably because people don't want to hear bad news and want to invalidate the forecasts...but the general premise behind a long range forecast is to get a feel for 1 week chunks and not try and nail daily stuff because that is nearly impossible to do. The ideas set forth by the ensembles have looked to be pretty solid. They called for the end of Nov torch and they called for the mild lingering into early Dec which looks to verify. The only change we've really seen is a possibly transient -EPO period after Dec 6 that dumps enough cold air into Canada that might help our the gradient pattern. That is the furthest range in the ensembles anyway so we'd expect a few changes as we get closer. It does appear though that the low heights there want to reload.

[Logan11]

Hopefully you will as long as it doesn't require elevation. If it requires elevation take an alternate route such as US-20 which crests at over 1500 feet several times along ridges.

I'll guarante you I see snow OTG somewhere from ROC/SYR to Buffalo next weekend..and snow falling each day

[CoastalWx]

I think the first 10 days of Dec are still going to avg out positive departures. We see the potential for a 2 day warm spell after the initial "CAA" from the cutoff...."CAA" in quotes because the air mass behind it is pitiful.

Our 3-5 day cold shot may be delayed until closer to Dec 6-10...Dec 3 looks chilly but mostly just for a day. Hopefully something pans out that weekend but its likely a long shot. The pattern seems to support a few more threats post Dec 5 should it set up like shown.

Its easy to see some snide remarks about details in the forecast which are mostly Monday Morning QBing...probably because people don't want to hear bad news and want to invalidate the forecasts...but the general premise behind a long range forecast is to get a feel for 1 week chunks and not try and nail daily stuff because that is nearly impossible to do. The ideas set forth by the ensembles have looked to be pretty solid. They called for the end of Nov torch and they called for the mild lingering into early Dec which looks to verify. The only change we've really seen is a possibly transient -EPO period after Dec 6 that dumps enough cold air into Canada that might help our the gradient pattern. That is the furthest range in the ensembles anyway so we'd expect a few changes as we get closer. It does appear though that the low heights there want to reload.

Given how it's been lately, normal will feel like mid winter...lol. Yeah agreed, aside for maybe a couple of days below normal...it seems it will avg out positive. It really would be nice to time something with that big GOA ridge.

[Logan11]

Most of the snow weenies on this board just aren't accepting of their plight ...namely that in SNE you are really only guaranteed two solid winter months with regular cold snow..let's say from late Dec -> late Feb. Yeah some years it sets in by early Dec. and some years it hangs on til deep into March, but climo doesn't guarantee it.

I can certainly understand where a snow lover would find that unacceptable, but that's the reality... so people need to get a reality check here, or move to northern Maine. I may move further north one day to be truly satisfied, but work/family wouldn't allow it now.

Great post, I read through the threads this morning, and it was fantastic, you could sense that people were actually getting edgy over weather........I mean come on!

I still do not understand why most people are expecting winter automatically on Dec 1, I guess short term memory skews the reality. Winter will be here soon enough, but its certainly not locking up anytime soon.

Meanwhile, another 60+++ day, on the way to an historically warm autumn as expected.

[CoastalWx]

I don't even care if it is above normal, it would just be nice to get an advisory event where I flip to drizzle or something before it ends.

[Logan11]

People are very spoiled after the big KU storms of late... This may be one of those winters where you have enjoy the subtleties of winter wx events and not be focused on breaking snow records. I can get very into moderate snowfalls with fun rain/snow lines to track, or possible P type issues and snow versus ice etc.... It's all fun....

This may not be the year for the KU... But who knows.....

I don't even care if it is above normal, it would just be nice to get an advisory event where I flip to drizzle or something before it ends.

[toronto blizzard]

How did the 00z euro ensembles look like post day 10?

[CoastalWx]

How did the 00z euro ensembles look like post day 10?

Not too different from yesterday. It's possible the cooler wx in the northeast may ease a bit heading very late in the period, but that is pretty far out there.

[CoastalWx]

-NAO fail.

[toronto blizzard]

Not too different from yesterday. It's possible the cooler wx in the northeast may ease a bit heading very late in the period, but that is pretty far out there.

But for the most part the ridging stays up towards the GOA through the whole period right?

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think the first 10 days of Dec are still going to avg out positive departures. We see the potential for a 2 day warm spell after the initial "CAA" from the cutoff...."CAA" in quotes because the air mass behind it is pitiful.

Our 3-5 day cold shot may be delayed until closer to Dec 6-10...Dec 3 looks chilly but mostly just for a day. Hopefully something pans out that weekend but its likely a long shot. The pattern seems to support a few more threats post Dec 5 should it set up like shown.

Its easy to see some snide remarks about details in the forecast which are mostly Monday Morning QBing...probably because people don't want to hear bad news and want to invalidate the forecasts...but the general premise behind a long range forecast is to get a feel for 1 week chunks and not try and nail daily stuff because that is nearly impossible to do. The ideas set forth by the ensembles have looked to be pretty solid. They called for the end of Nov torch and they called for the mild lingering into early Dec which looks to verify. The only change we've really seen is a possibly transient -EPO period after Dec 6 that dumps enough cold air into Canada that might help our the gradient pattern. That is the furthest range in the ensembles anyway so we'd expect a few changes as we get closer. It does appear though that the low heights there want to reload.

Yep...tend to agree with that. It'll be a noticeable change from these atrociously warm days but Id wager above normal if I had to place a bet.

Overall I continue to think what's been tossed around for the 30-40 day period beginning about 11/5-ish has / is playing out quite well. We will see a decent step downward to cooler, more seasonable conditions but we don't appear to be entering anything extreme snow or cold-wise by any means.