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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Things are changing for the better.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

135 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

AKZ125-131-272000-

...PATTERN CHANGE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AROUND PRINCE

WILLIAM SOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A VERY PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR

HEAVY SNOWFALL AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE

WEEKEND...THEN A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA

TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO

POINT RIGHT TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR

RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN RAIN.

WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING...THIS PRECIPITATION

WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND WILL LIKELY BE VERY HEAVY.

AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO FALL BETWEEN

TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECASTS

LATER THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION

OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED

FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Dreamy.

SUSITNA VALLEY-

INCLUDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL

400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW

EXCEPT 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. LIGHT WINDS.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY MORNING FOG. HIGHS AROUND 5 ABOVE

EXCEPT ZERO TO 10 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. LIGHT WINDS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 5 BELOW

TO 5 ABOVE EXCEPT 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND

15 EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TOWARD THE PARK. VARIABLE WINDS 10 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE

EXCEPT 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. LIGHT WINDS.

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 15 TO 25.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE TEENS.

HIGHS 25 TO 35.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN

THE 20S. HIGHS 25 TO 35.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS 25 TO 35. LOWS

15 TO 25.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE

20S.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

That trough in the southwest makes an appearance again as the ridge retrogrades. It looks like the ridge may try to build a little more north into the Aleutians perhaps extrapolating past day15, but that is just a WAG for now. I still think we walk the line in mid month perhaps.

Typical Euro bias of holding too much energy back in the SW. How many times have we seen that in the past?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Typical Euro bias of holding too much energy back in the SW. How many times have we seen that in the past?

That's more for the op. It's appearing on the GEFS too.

And lol, I'm not in depression mode. I'm just saying it may get a little dicey with storm chances. It's not a torch pattern, but it isn't a full blown snow and cold regime either. We'll have chances, but 100% snow is far from a given. I don't think I've changed a beat.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

You're back into depression mode. i thought you had turned the corner with your positive posts the last few days.

The warm pattern is over after Tuesday AWT

We need to get some snow down onto the coastal plain/ low elevations to change the mood of some posters. Poor Scooter is wearing flip flops and a thong as he watches the daffodils push up. Meanwhile, here it's cold with snow otg. Change is coming.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

We need to get some snow down onto the coastal plain/ low elevations to change the mood of some posters. Poor Scooter is wearing flip flops and a thong as he watches the daffodils push up. Meanwhile, here it's cold with snow otg. Change is coming.

I was shocked when he said there were roses and flowers blooming yesterday. They haven't had a freeze on the coast..so I guess that's why. Thankfully none of that nonsense here

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

We need to get some snow down onto the coastal plain/ low elevations to change the mood of some posters. Poor Scooter is wearing flip flops and a thong as he watches the daffodils push up. Meanwhile, here it's cold with snow otg. Change is coming.

Other than the typical plants that die with frost, we seriously haven't had a good killing freeze in the city. It's got down into the 20s, but only briefly. It's been a region wide torch.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I was shocked when he said there were roses and flowers blooming yesterday. They haven't had a freeze on the coast..so I guess that's why. Thankfully none of that nonsense here

Mid 20's overnight, crusty snow with more on the way by the weekend. It will be nice to have snow scour out the negative vibe in here. It's been like a funeral. ( Not directing this at anybody in particular mind you, just an overall vibe.)

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Other than the typical plants that die with frost, we seriously haven't had a good killing freeze in the city. It's got down into the 20s, but only briefly. It's been a region wide torch.

Crazy. I'm planning to move to Willow. I'll sell you the house here and you can escape the madness.

It's there in the interior too....look around.

Looks like early Winter here. No sign of Spring.

LOL...yes we have...been in the mid 20s almost a half dozen times.

Messenger said he was still mowing and playing volleyball at the beach in his speedo.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I'll guarante you I see snow OTG somewhere from ROC/SYR to Buffalo next weekend..and snow falling each day

Buffalo's extended

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 42.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

I'll guarante you I see snow OTG somewhere from ROC/SYR to Buffalo next weekend..and snow falling each day

Congrats.. I should start going to get milk and

Eggs for the snowstorm next weekend that is shown on no models except for the tolland model..

I thought it was supposed to be "cold" by Thanksgiving???

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