Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[Damage In Tolland]

It's trying.

Kevin is out of town,so hopefully we can lock that...lol.

BUF gets snow every day from Fri onwards it appears

[Organizing Low]

BUF gets snow every day from Fri onwards it appears

make sure you stay in a location that is prime snowbelt or you will be high and dry.

[OKpowdah]

It's trying.

Kevin is out of town,so hopefully we can lock that...lol.

huge Miller B that will rival January 12, 2011

[skierinvermont]

AO was far from huge in 1993-94.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table

It was negative all three months, and a good amount negative in Feb (-.8). And even though the 500mb ridging in the arctic was not extreme by any means, the placement of it near the bering strait was ideal which meant that even though the index value is not extreme, the effect on NA weather was more typical of a stronger -AO state. I didn't check the AO stats.. just the 500mb composite.. which is why I called it huge.

Oh I agree.....would rather neg AO/NAO but you can't use it's current state to support a transient EPO IMHO.

Sure you can.. +EPO and +AO are correlated. Also the MJO is not supportive of a -EPO. So you have both the MJO and the AO/stratosphere state supporting a +EPO.

In the long range Dec 5+ the MJO looks to be moving through P4 maybe ending in P6.

P4 Nina MJO

P5 Nina MJO

P6 Nina MJO:

[OKpowdah]

Here's a bet for y'all:

The AO will average NEGATIVE over DJF

[snowNH]

huge Miller B that will rival January 12, 2011

Weekend Rule? Hopefully it continues so we have something to track this week. GFS was hinting at a possible miller B last night.

I know Kevin's going to BUF, but what for? And I think if a Jan 12 type storm were to hit, Kevin would probably stay here lol

OT:epic golf day today

[skierinvermont]

Here's a bet for y'all:

The AO will average NEGATIVE over DJF

I'd bet that it does not, and if it does, it will be because it tanks in late jan and feb.

[OKpowdah]

I'd bet that it does not, and if it does, it will be because it tanks in late jan and feb.

that's not an exception. It tanks in Jan and Feb, and averages negative, then it averages negative.

The AO will average negative for DJF

[skierinvermont]

that's not an exception. It tanks in Jan and Feb, and averages negative, then it averages negative.

The AO will average negative for DJF

I didn't say it was an exception. I still think it will average positive DJF, but there is always uncertainty involved esp. in Feb. I am acknowledging the uncertainty.

[Damage In Tolland]

Classic Dec 07 pattern setting up

[weathafella]

I didn't say it was an exception. I still think it will average positive DJF, but there is always uncertainty involved esp. in Feb. I am acknowledging the uncertainty.

You're going to bust. If not, come and stick this in my face. I won't if you do indeed bust but of my brain works will try to remember to give you credit for a good call.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You're going to bust. If not, come and stick this in my face. I won't if you do indeed bust but of my brain works will try to remember to give you credit for a good call.

Jerry, it's tough to debate given where it is and has been since August. I'm honestly pulling for some good stuff but things have not looked to good in the indices. Wake me up in a couple weeks. it's still early to go one way or another from where I am.

[snowNH]

For all you newbies in here.... I found a pretty case study website that explains the best Miller A versus Miller B storms, how they formed, and what the Nina/Nino/NAO/AO/ENSO etc... was prior to the storm hitting. Just something to read to kill time i guess....

http://berkswinterca...d.com/id85.html

[Baroclinic Zone]

Classic Dec 07 pattern setting up

The Dec 07 pattern had an auspicious start with the first event but we did cash in on a few events there. I did get one SWFE where I got more snow than you, I believe.

I'd still like to see where this gradient sets up in the next couple weeks. Hopefully we can have some cold sitting just to our N that we can tap into. This last event was a perfect case in point.

I do think we have something to track in that first week of Dec.

[weathafella]

Jerry, it's tough to debate given where it is and has been since August. I'm honestly pulling for some good stuff but things have not looked to good in the indices. Wake me up in a couple weeks. it's still early to go one way or another from where I am.

Bob, I think as that Atlantic ridge builds north while the EPO changes phases we may have the momentum to flip the switch. This is why I assert that it takes until around 12/25.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ensembles look better than the OP for sure. The question becomes....and still is today, where is the pattern going after 12/10. We still don't have the answer. To me we look to be setting up a track for storms to head west which may be good for nothern areas, not so much here with a high to our south....but it's forever away.

Ensembles are all that should be considered beyond day 7.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Scott just took a look at the main thread and here's the better way of saying what I was trying to:

"The bad news is that there are signs on the GEFS ensembles that the pna ridge will be replaced by an rpna, the typical nina ridge position. During nina, there often are cold shots as amplification takes place and the ridge shifts eastward into AK and the west but the cold in the east is usually transitory as the tropical forcing associated with la nina tends to shift the ridge back west. "

"Note how the orange shades that were over the west coast have shifted back west. There is little skill in model forecasts so far in advance but such a shift would fit with nina climo. Also, the 384 hour still shows blues molsty blue shades at the higher latitudes. To me that's believable given the very cold stratosphere. We need upwelling events or Ozone to weaken that stratospheric polar vortex. "

That's from USETOBE and I think he's nailing it as always. Personally I think what some see as hope on the long range GEFS to me will be more heartbreak as even if there is an evolution towards more storminess it would lead to a western track for us.

http://www.americanw...80#entry1143660

You musn't forget Wes posts from a Maryland perspective....the upcoming pattern blows dead goats for them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You're going to bust....come and stick this in my face. I won't if you do indeed bust but of my brain works will try to remember to give you credit for a good call.

Frisky old man

[dryslot]

You musn't forget Wes posts from a Maryland perspective....the upcoming pattern blows dead goats for them.

Agree

[Tropopause_Fold]

Looking forward to this time next week...december...getting into the holiday season...and a temperature that's finally (hopefully) getting in line with the calendar. Its ridiculous out there today.

It'll be funny when things finally do flip...even just consistently seasonal temps are going to seem really chilly.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looking forward to this time next week...december...getting into the holiday season...and a temperature that's finally (hopefully) getting in line with the calendar. Its ridiculous out there today.

It'll be funny when things finally do flip...even just consistently seasonal temps are going to seem really chilly.

Shorts and tees have been the outfit of choice yesterday and today

[OKpowdah]

Both December 2007 and 2008 in there

[Tropopause_Fold]

Shorts and tees have been the outfit of choice yesterday and today

Well hopefully we are done with that crap soon. There are perrenials coming up in spots and the grass is growing like its spring.

Just happy to see a flow that doesnt guarantee warmth....which couldn't be said a few weeks ago about this current period. The writing was on the wall for the 10th-30th of november...definitely not the same deal looking ahead now.

[Ginx snewx]

Both December 2007 and 2008 in there

Better yet Phils 04

[Tropopause_Fold]

Both December 2007 and 2008 in there

2004 still leading the way. screw nina climo.

[OKpowdah]

lol! I'd take 2004-05. Not all that big up here, but that was an incredible winter to watch, that produced some great discussions

[CoastalWx]

EC ensembles still hold for the most part. Maybe slightly warmer, but it's part of the ebb and flow. If we can get even a bit more ridging over in the Caspian area, it will help push the vortex in nrn Canada even further south.

[nzucker]

You're going to bust. If not, come and stick this in my face. I won't if you do indeed bust but of my brain works will try to remember to give you credit for a good call.

I agree with you, Jerry. All the models are now honed in on a strong blocking ridge over the American West into Western Canada/AK for early December, the first sign of the pattern change away from the fall +EPO that we've had the past few years. We don't need a monster AO/NAO block with the Pacific being so favorable for cold air moving into the Northeast. We had a monster +NAO for much of 93-94 with a PV parked over Baffin Island/Hudson Bay, and Central Park still saw over 50" snowfall.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Well hopefully we are done with that crap soon. There are perrenials coming up in spots and the grass is growing like its spring.

Just happy to see a flow that doesnt guarantee warmth....which couldn't be said a few weeks ago about this current period. The writing was on the wall for the 10th-30th of november...definitely not the same deal looking ahead now.

I had the crew mow Wednesday as they do the full cleaning too, leaves etc. I fertilized Wednesday with the last of the winterguard. The lawn is darkening again and I'll need to mow again wednesday. Freaking stupid!

I was just hanging christmas lights swatting mosquitoes away. No joke, unreal.

EC ensembles still hold for the most part. Maybe slightly warmer, but it's part of the ebb and flow. If we can get even a bit more ridging over in the Caspian area, it will help push the vortex in nrn Canada even further south.

How about D10-15. I bet the see saw stomps us again 12/15 ish.

[CoastalWx]

I had the crew mow Wednesday as they do the full cleaning too, leaves etc. I fertilized Wednesday with the last of the winterguard. The lawn is darkening again and I'll need to mow again wednesday. Freaking stupid!

I was just hanging christmas lights swatting mosquitoes away. No joke, unreal.

How about D10-15. I bet the see saw stomps us again 12/15 ish.

It looks ok. Seems like with every storm threat, it may get cooler. The problem is that the storm track cannot be determined.