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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

How does the 12z gfs for NNE wed?

Rain.... Take the GFS with a grain of salt right now though.... The difference between the 06z GFS and 12z GFS are laughable, the frontal low is literally 400 miles to the NW on 12z compared to 06z.

The 18z NAM did look kind of interesting with a low forming off the SE coast at hr 84..

A tough forecast for sure with many swings/changes probably up to 24 hours out.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

Rain.... Take the GFS with a grain of salt right now though.... The difference between the 06z GFS and 12z GFS are laughable, the frontal low is literally 400 miles to the NW on 12z compared to 06z.

The 18z NAM did look kind of interesting with a low forming off the SE coast at hr 84..

A tough forecast for sure with many swings/changes probably up to 24 hours out.

Yeah I'm at work on the cell...can't load the maps. Waiting on the euro. 0z looked interesting to say the least.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

To be clear, the ht rises d10-15 on the ensembles over AK with some falling hts NE of HI is a welcomed sign. It's a bit muted due to the mean which suggests to me there are some opposing forces in the ensembles but the mean is trending where we want...albeit slowly which is why I think it takes a full 15 days to be complete ...by 12/25.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

To be clear, the ht rises d10-15 on the ensembles over AK with some falling hts NE of HI is a welcomed sign. It's a bit muted due to the mean which suggests to me there are some opposing forces in the ensembles but the mean is trending where we want...albeit slowly which is why I think it takes a full 15 days to be complete ...by 12/25.

They did not look bad at all

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

Models have been back and forth with that Dec 3rd threat. Some of the models have an offshore low with a little -SN in SNE. Euro op has this, but hr 192 is la la land.

Whats your take on this cutoff mess? Seems like we def need a SE trend to happen to get some snow.

Probably going to be A LOT of changes on models over the next 3-4 days.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Euro 7-10 day looks good..nice +PNA..compared to the last month, a definite change of the pattern

It'll be definite when it happens and it actually sticks around for more than a few days. It's snowed twice now this year....getting periodic shots at snow isn't the problem sustained cold is. So let's see if it's more than a shorter term opportunity before the warmth comes back.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

On the euro, Kevin gets his LES on the 4th.

meh..

-6 850s and ~534 dm thicknesses. The lake is 9C. The relatively high thickness is indicative of a low capping inversion..along with marginal low-level instability. That trough has to move bodily south...centered near or south of James Bay to get a decent event imo.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Euro continues the trend and now we have solid guiance in all corners for an EPO shift. First step...the EPO, 2nd step, weenies aglow, 3rd step, we get AO, 4th step, we hohoho, 5th step, PNA, 6th step, cold's here to stay, 6th step we get some snow, naked angels look out below, 7th step we sing with glee......it looks like '93.....step by step....

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Euro continues the trend and now we have solid guiance in all corners for an EPO shift. First step...the EPO, 2nd step, weenies aglow, 3rd step, we get AO, 4th step, we hohoho, 5th step, PNA, 6th step, cold's here to stay, 6th step we get some snow, naked angels look out below, 7th step we sing with glee......it looks like '93.....step by step....

Bring it Jerry

On the down side, I hit a squirrel today

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Euro continues the trend and now we have solid guiance in all corners for an EPO shift. First step...the EPO, 2nd step, weenies aglow, 3rd step, we get AO, 4th step, we hohoho, 5th step, PNA, 6th step, cold's here to stay, 6th step we get some snow, naked angels look out below, 7th step we sing with glee......it looks like '93.....step by step....

Meh what change looks the same to me. :whistle:

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