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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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WAA is fine for lake-effect...as long as shear is low and the airmass itself is plenty cold for lake-effect...WAA can add some extra lift and moisture. The Euro ensemble is just plain too warm for lake-effect on the 5th. The 00z GFS ensembles look much better for lake-effect potential since 850s are pretty cold around the lakes beyond Dec. 2nd.

That's kind of what I mean...they seem a little mild and temps warm ahead of that trough. It's still far out though, so it could change.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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They keep trending a little better with the ridging, but it's still a little dicey for us I think. I just hope that we don't take any steps back in the next week. Overall it has been better.

Yeah we just need to be careful that we keep that ridging there and it doesn't get flattened into a zonal Pac blow torch.

The 12z Euro ensembles were not good... so it's nice to see the 00z play nice.

Blocking would be nice though lol.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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That's kind of what I mean...they seem a little mild and temps warm ahead of that trough. It's still far out though, so i could change.

yeah I agree. WAA being bad for lake-effect is a popular misconception. It's like no! lol

There's been a few times just over the past few years that WAA was forecasting to dissolve the band as it headed northward towards BUF metro...4-6 hours and 12" later....

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

yeah I agree. WAA being bad for lake-effect is a popular misconception. It's like no! lol

There's been a few times just over the past few years that WAA was forecasting to dissolve the band as it headed northward towards BUF metro...4-6 hours and 12" later....

LES bands always fascinate me. You probably have a better handle on them being from that area.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

yeah I agree. WAA being bad for lake-effect is a popular misconception. It's like no! lol

There's been a few times just over the past few years that WAA was forecasting to dissolve the band as it headed northward towards BUF metro...4-6 hours and 12" later....

Likewise for CAA being good. The healthy bands don't really get cranking until the CAA relaxes and it becomes more neutral. Obviously, you need the cold air, but the downward vertical velocities can stifle development.

Going to school in the Finger Lakes region certainly gave me a healthy appreciation for lake effect.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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Well whatever happens with the AK vortex it's always gonna be a little dicier for SNE (sticking out to the east such that it does) if things aren't complimented with a -NAO. Inside runners or coast huggers are a threat even in a +PNA ...as per this latest 0Z GFS fantasy storms.

They keep trending a little better with the ridging, but it's still a little dicey for us I think. I just hope that we don't take any steps back in the next week. Overall it has been better.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Rain to snow on Wed/Thurs??

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Yeah I'm not sure of the euro op depiction, but even the ensembles almost hint at a rain to snow event...maybe anafrontal type deal.

Let me get a lot of snow now so that I don't mind whiffing on some events later this winter. :bike:

Last night's Euro is a good example of why those WU snow maps are full of frankfurters. If you add them all up from that anafrontal event here you get about 18".

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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The 0Z Euro holds back the southern vortex just enough for a rain to decent snow event from Upstate NY to VT....

Gotta love those snowfall maps on the wxunderground ecmwf site. LOL ...be it fiction or not who knows.....

Rain to snow... this would be a nice dump for the mountain. NW flow enhancement with a deformation zone... boom.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Let me get a lot of snow now so that I don't mind whiffing on some events later this winter. :bike:

Last night's Euro is a good example of why those WU snow maps are full of frankfurters. If you add them all up from that anafrontal event here you get about 18".

Congrats Dendrite, I said that so many times probably has added 100 posts to my count over the years.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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As we know...many good SNE storms fringe us from Upstate NY to Maine.... So things tend to equal out a lot in the end.

Just have to remember its can be a little different up this way then what goes on south of here so i have read between the lines on a lot of this discussion, Looking at the models its close for here in the next 10 days for things to be a more wintery.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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We need a good SE SNE special this year where I get heavy cirrus and you, Scott, Phil, John Deere, et al. rejoice...as long as I have snowpack at the time.

I had my turn of a lifetime last year, Phils turn for that ala 05. I am good for life after last year. One good storm this year is all I ask for.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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Beautiful. :snowman: I think we get some good snow opportunities in December. Lack of the - NAO might even jbe our friend further inland. I think I might enjoy that more than suppression city like last year even if it puts us in some peril each time.

But hey despite last years less than stellar track for me, I got 103" so who am I to complain. LOL

Doing anything out in the snow and cold is good for the soul Rick. What's your gut telling you for the December period? A pic for you.lol

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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As we know...many good SNE storms fringe us from Upstate NY to Maine.... So things tend to equal out a lot in the end.

It does, Miiler A's are not as friendly as the Clippers, SWFE and Miller B's, Lat could play a bigger roll for the next few weeks, We shall see, To be honest, I am more concerned about having cold in place then snow, As we saw that snow can happen even if its marginal temp wise.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
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haha well yeah the skiing can still be enjoyable but the back stiffness after skiing icy bumps all day not so much. I guess I'm getting old already. I should probably keep my skis sharper too.

Please. Yes, keep them razor sharp. Lean to tune yourself, it's fun.

I had my turn of a lifetime last year, Phils turn for that ala 05. I am good for life after last year. One good storm this year is all I ask for.

You'll get more than one Ginxxx. I wonder how long before others will join the party? Right now it's you, Jerry and I.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Just have to remember its can be a little different up this way then what goes on south of here so i have read between the lines on a lot of this discussion, Looking at the models its close for here in the next 10 days for things to be a more wintery.

I'm spending the day at PWM Tuesday (downtown). Hoping things speed up and I either see some snow or am forced to stay home...lol..

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Beautiful. :snowman: I think we get some good snow opportunities in December. Lack of the - NAO might even jbe our friend further inland. I think I might enjoy that more than suppression city like last year even if it puts us in some peril each time.

But hey despite last years less than stellar track for me, I got 103" so who am I to complain. LOL

I like where we sit. South of here could have problems.

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