Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[Logan11]

This is shaping up to be the kind of winter where it's best to look out a week, maybe 10 days for ways to score "some" snow. Not worry too much about the distant long range such as the weeklies.... HA especially if they are depressing anyway.....

All winter wx is interestng and in a morbid pattern pulling a six inch snowfall can be as rewarding as a two footer in a winter with an embarrassment of riches like last year was (in SNE anyway).

No, I did not call for that...just commenting on the weeklies. If I started calling for a torch/snowless month, you'd know. But that is silly to do when the 2nd half of the month is still very much in doubt.

Its not a good look to the pattern though and I would lean warmer if forced to make a call at the moment.

[Ji]

Kevin just texted me saying the euro weeklies were time stamped with the wrong date due to the thanksgiving holiday. The true weeklies show cold and stormy like the Gfs shows

[Logan11]

The new GFS gets that whole mess east of us faster early next week.... Should be some LES with the later Tuesday/Wednesday cold shot.

The 168-192 hour period certainly looks interesting.

[weathafella]

GEFS could be worse. Definite relaxation but not obliteration of the AK beast.

[OSUmetstud]

Just checked...BUF should finish November #6 warmest all-time...at about 45.5 degrees. This is about 1.5 degrees cooler than 2001.

[Amped]

Epic Battle of the models tonight. GFS and NAM vs every other model. Unfortunately none give us snow. The whole debate is over a southeast cutoff low, that will likely be all rain.

[CoastalWx]

The weeklies are showing temps between 0.5C and 1C at 850mb week 3 and +0.5C week4 with normal temps at 850 in central Maine. I guess not too bad, but it appears the torch line will be nearby. My guess is that it probably would be good for NNE and SNE may be on the line...but not necessarily a disaster....although if the weeklies are a little off...it very well could be.

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on everything..it looks like the change to colder next week is right on track and pattern change to cold should be complete by around the 20th

[CoastalWx]

Based on everything..it looks like the change to colder next week is right on track and pattern change to cold should be complete by around the 20th

Why the 20th?

[Damage In Tolland]

Why the 20th?

BAsed on the Euro ens being too slow..and the GEFS being too fast.

I still think from Wed -next Sunday we're overall nomal and a couple days are below and that 5 day period might end up below normal

You think there's a good chance I see some LES next weekend in and arounf BUF?

[weathafella]

Those of us who must work today are up. Euro and it's ensembles continue with the EPO into a favorable position with a hostile Atlantic. 1993.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Based on everything..it looks like the change to colder next week is right on track and pattern change to cold should be complete by around the 20th

the 20th of when?

[Damage In Tolland]

the 20th of when?

Dec...you guys have got to stop thinking warm in the long range

[CoastalWx]

BAsed on the Euro ens being too slow..and the GEFS being too fast.

I still think from Wed -next Sunday we're overall nomal and a couple days are below and that 5 day period might end up below normal

You think there's a good chance I see some LES next weekend in and arounf BUF?

It's possible. The euro ensembles have sw winds next Sunday the 5th, but it may be WAA out ahead of another front dropping south. You don't want WAA for lake Effect.

The threat near the 3rd appears it could be tame with perhaps a milder solution or fropa. Still early.

As far as the pattern goes....we still appear to be walking the line. Ridging in the GOA has improved allowing maybe another potential after the 5th like some have been saying. It's slowly getting better, but it has work to do.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Dec...you guys have got to stop thinking warm in the long range

i think we'll have some stuff to track... hopefully we can steal a storm or two. just don't see sustained "winter" for now

[Neblizzard]

Dec...you guys have got to stop thinking warm in the long range

Why is that? The pattern certainly gets better than what we have now but there are still no signs of a true -NAO developing on all the guidance. We certainly are headed in the right direction but the 20th may Be too early..

[Tropopause_Fold]

would be nice if we could manage some blocking!

[weathafella]

Why is that? The pattern certainly gets better than what we have now but there are still no signs of a true -NAO developing on all the guidance. We certainly are headed in the right direction but the 20th may Be too early..

With a good EPO/PNA we don't NAO....in fact we've had one of our best winters ever with that combination ruling.

[Neblizzard]

With a good EPO/PNA we don't NAO....in fact we've had one of our best winters ever with that combination ruling.

Don't get me wrong things are definitely heading in the right direction. Keep in mind the AO remains positive thru the long range, we need that to flip to establish a good cross polar flow. We will get there it's just going to take some time...

[CoastalWx]

would be nice if we could manage some blocking!

I'm hoping that ridge can hold in the GOA. I think over the last few runs, models have trended a little stronger with it, but if that weakens, then it's congrats NNE and points north. It's still not a very wintry pattern per se, but we should have stuff to track like you said.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'm hoping that ridge can hold in the GOA. I think over the last few runs, models have trended a little stronger with it, but if that weakens, then it's congrats NNE and points north. It's still not a very wintry pattern per se, but we should have stuff to track like you said.

yeah if we didn't have a raging +AO/NAO going i'd be more excited for the next 5 to 15 day period. but minimally we should start to have less frequent days featuring 55-65F and sun. LOL. this next 5 day stretch is going to be painful though...waiting for things to cool down.

[CoastalWx]

yeah if we didn't have a raging +AO/NAO going i'd be more excited for the next 5 to 15 day period. but minimally we should start to have less frequent days featuring 55-65F and sun. LOL. this next 5 day stretch is going to be painful though...waiting for things to cool down.

Yeah I've had enough of this frisbee weather crap. Instead of putting on the news and watching video of couples holding hands as they walk along the Charles, I want to see video of people with scarfs wrapped around their face and have the talking about how cold it is outside. That puts a smile on my face. I love when people b**ch about winter wx.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah I've had enough of this frisbee weather crap. Instead of putting on the news and watching video of couples holding hands as they walk along the Charles, I want to see video of people with scarfs wrapped around their face and have the talking about how cold it is outside. That puts a smile on my face. I love when people b**ch about winter wx.

I like when they are lulled into relaxation and are out in shorts and light spring jackets and a megafront howls in and drops temps into the teens with teeth shaking cracking windex squalls. That happened in 77 when I was at URI, classic 65 degrees with birds chirping, coeds frolicking on the Quad laying out in their tube tops and daisy dukes, smoking weed, playing frisbee and chillin, by 4 pm it was 28 with a heavy snow squall. Saw dudes getting out of afternoon class running across the campus in shorts and tee shirts, I knew what was coming, it was awesome.

[Logan11]

Well the 6Z GFS bowed to the Euro a lot on the southern cutoff early next week. No shock I guess.....

Perhaps because of extreme luck of timing, but the Euro holds it back for so long that some cold air can build in ahead and it produced a nice snow event out here. Probably be gone at 12Z, but nice to look at.

I'm hoping that ridge can hold in the GOA. I think over the last few runs, models have trended a little stronger with it, but if that weakens, then it's congrats NNE and points north. It's still not a very wintry pattern per se, but we should have stuff to track like you said.

[CoastalWx]

I like when they are lulled into relaxation and are out in shorts and light spring jackets and a megafront howls in and drops temps into the teens with teeth shaking cracking windex squalls. That happened in 77 when I was at URI, classic 65 degrees with birds chirping, coeds frolicking on the Quad laying out in their tube tops and daisy dukes, smoking weed, playing frisbee and chillin, by 4 pm it was 28 with a heavy snow squall. Saw dudes getting out of afternoon class running across the campus in shorts and tee shirts, I knew what was coming, it was awesome.

I always laugh when people cry about snow. You're in New England dude...lol.

[CoastalWx]

Well the 6Z GFS bowed to the Euro a lot on the southern cutoff early next week. No shock I guess.....

Perhaps because of extreme luck of timing, but the Euro holds it back for so long that some cold air can build in ahead and it produced a nice snow event out here. Probably be gone at 12Z, but nice to look at.

Yeah I'm not sure of the euro op depiction, but even the ensembles almost hint at a rain to snow event...maybe anafrontal type deal.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ginx was channeling Tip for a minute

I will tell you, when real winter comes, even if temps are just normal, people's heads will spin

They forget it gets cold Dec-Feb

[HoarfrostHubb]

Let's see if it survives more than one run

[CT Rain]

Euro ensembles are infinitely better this morning.

[OSUmetstud]

It's possible. The euro ensembles have sw winds next Sunday the 5th, but it may be WAA out ahead of another front dropping south. You don't want WAA for lake Effect.

The threat near the 3rd appears it could be tame with perhaps a milder solution or fropa. Still early.

As far as the pattern goes....we still appear to be walking the line. Ridging in the GOA has improved allowing maybe another potential after the 5th like some have been saying. It's slowly getting better, but it has work to do.

WAA is fine for lake-effect...as long as shear is low and the airmass itself is plenty cold for lake-effect...WAA can add some extra lift and moisture. The Euro ensemble is just plain too warm for lake-effect on the 5th. The 00z GFS ensembles look much better for lake-effect potential since 850s are pretty cold around the lakes beyond Dec. 2nd.