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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I think we're both on the same page that there's a cold shot then a return to normal or above with a pattern post 12/10 that "appears" to be less than favorable.

Yup a lot of us have been saying that for a week or so now. Everything appears to be panning out as most of us have thought.

There's a couple in here that are out of touch with reality I think.

You both speak as if verification has already happened for a period 20+days out. I follow LR forecasts fairly closely and it seems to me its the rare one that actually works out. If the forecast were for a stormy, wintry pattern at d20 and weenies were giving the high five you'd be scoffing at them. I will be very interested to see who comes closer to the correct call. I believe Dec turns out AOA normal wrt to temps and well above for snowfall.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

You both speak as if verification has already happened for a period 20+days out. I follow LR forecasts fairly closely and it seems to me its the rare one that actually works out. If the forecast were for a stormy, wintry pattern at d20 and weenies were giving the high five you'd be scoffing at them. I will be very interested to see who comes closer to the correct call. I believe Dec turns out AOA normal wrt to temps and well above for snowfall.

Well this week has panned out pretty much as expected.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
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Yes, hopefully. There have been some epic bad Nina winters in VT but I'm optimistic for you guys.

We'll see how it goes. I'm fine with snow at school and mild at home. Give me a snowy december until christmas then warm it on up.May be a minority, but cold and snow gets old by february..by then I'm looking forward to going to florida feb 21 then when I return I look forward to summer...

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Same to you Pete. Yup working today.

Do you get X-mas/New Year's off? Hope so. I seem to remember last November lots of pessimism and a similar pattern. We all know how that worked out. I try not to get too high or too low based on LR progs. My thinking is more in line with Jerry and Ginxxx as far as pattern change. While the pattern has been stable with each passing day the likelyhood of change grows.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Those are 5 h maps from the 18z GEFS, but as I said we agree to disagree. You would have hated 70/71

Yes he would have as much as i loved it... :snowman:

I would think NNE should be in for a HUGE winter.

I think you are right

The pattern change begins 12/10 and is complete 12/25.

Still have it written on my hand and people asking........wtf is that?

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Nights will be freezing at most ski areas through Saturday night. 28 here now even though ALB thinks the low is going to be 34.

Yeah, but that's for over where you are on the CP. Never fear, ski season is already here. BTW, Killington now at 20 trails including upper Downdraft and Downdraft Headwall. Also, JayPeak, Sugarbush and Stowe are also open despite this 'hostile' pattern. Imagine how quickly the trail count will rise after this next transient shot of above normal temps. There is no reason to fear. Just a typical bumpy early season start. Think outside the wawa.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well back on topic about the pattern ahead....the weeklies are pretty much an electrical bath and do not show any improvement after the Dec 6-12 time range. They actually get worse as we go toward Christmas I'd say in week 4. There's some cold air north of us, but I'm not sure how well it would filter down in that pattern....week 3 looks like a gradient pattern, but it might be too far north for most of NE, maybe Vim Toot does well, lol.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Well back on topic about the pattern ahead....the weeklies are pretty much an electrical bath and do not show any improvement after the Dec 6-12 time range. They actually get worse as we go toward Christmas I'd say in week 4. There's some cold air north of us, but I'm not sure how well it would filter down in that pattern....week 3 looks like a gradient pattern, but it might be too far north for most of NE, maybe Vim Toot does well, lol.

Ugly.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Well back on topic about the pattern ahead....the weeklies are pretty much an electrical bath and do not show any improvement after the Dec 6-12 time range. They actually get worse as we go toward Christmas I'd say in week 4. There's some cold air north of us, but I'm not sure how well it would filter down in that pattern....week 3 looks like a gradient pattern, but it might be too far north for most of NE, maybe Vim Toot does well, lol.

I simply refuse to believe it because we have been above average in temps for almost 3 months...

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Well back on topic about the pattern ahead....the weeklies are pretty much an electrical bath and do not show any improvement after the Dec 6-12 time range. They actually get worse as we go toward Christmas I'd say in week 4. There's some cold air north of us, but I'm not sure how well it would filter down in that pattern....week 3 looks like a gradient pattern, but it might be too far north for most of NE, maybe Vim Toot does well, lol.

Kevin from his sleep>Why even look at those things? They showed a below normal pattern for November...how did that work out? Toss them...snow event 12/3 is near a lock>Kevin from his sleep

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#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
Posted

crap, did i just pnw myself by misreading my own thermometer? smdh...in my defense i am hungover...and reading what Will just posted about the upcoming pattern...i may just go back upstairs and finish off that bottle of wine...

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

crap, did i just pnw myself by misreading my own thermometer? smdh...in my defense i am hungover...and reading what Will just posted about the upcoming pattern...i may just go back upstairs and finish off that bottle of wine...

laugh.gif

I'd go for it...right now we are relying on Pete and Kev who think we are getting into a good pattern next week...

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

laugh.gif

I'd go for it...right now we are relying on Pete and Kev who think we are getting into a good pattern next week...

I've never said anything of the sort. I just don't believe that all the doom and gloom prophets have a crystal ball. I have 33" on the board by Thanksgiving, a white Thanksgiving at that, despite all the torch talk. Despite the constant drumbeat of crappy patterns. Despite the ugly AK vortex (ugly unless you live in AK). In the future refrain from misquoting me. I don't appreciate it.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Well back on topic about the pattern ahead....the weeklies are pretty much an electrical bath and do not show any improvement after the Dec 6-12 time range. They actually get worse as we go toward Christmas I'd say in week 4. There's some cold air north of us, but I'm not sure how well it would filter down in that pattern....week 3 looks like a gradient pattern, but it might be too far north for most of NE, maybe Vim Toot does well, lol.

Pattern change, though.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

We all know how K-Mart (and most big ski areas) count trails. Upper, lower and mid of the same trail are three and any cross cut is another...

The Northern areas at least have marginal night time snow making temps through the torch. Wachuset and the Beast not so much this week.

Whatever. The point is ski season is underway, while some lament others ski. I've already had a few POW days.

I really only care about the hill that is 15 minutes away and costs me nothing...

Can't really see heading to Jay, Killington, Stowe, etc for a while. Too much of a drive, too much for a ticket

Really? I thought you bought a pass. I never pictured you as a poacher.

It will be interesting to see if almost all of New England ends up having Oct/Nov. w/ greater snow totals than December.

Don't drink the bitter Kool-Aid Chris. A solid December en route, that's how I see it.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

I've never said anything of the sort. I just don't believe that all the doom and gloom prophets have a crystal ball. I have 33" on the board by Thanksgiving, a white Thanksgiving at that, despite all the torch talk. Despite the constant drumbeat of crappy patterns. Despite the ugly AK vortex (ugly unless you live in AK). In the future refrain from misquoting me. I don't appreciate it.

Yeah...I know what you mean. My bad.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Really Will? You feel comfortable making the early call? I'm surprised, you usually take a more measured approach. I wouldn't think you would make a post mortem call 40 days in advance.

No, I did not call for that...just commenting on the weeklies. If I started calling for a torch/snowless month, you'd know. But that is silly to do when the 2nd half of the month is still very much in doubt.

Its not a good look to the pattern though and I would lean warmer if forced to make a call at the moment.

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