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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Ahhh I see those wearing weenie goggles have moved the goalposts. Instead of major pattern change with cold coming... now it's just "normal" weather lol.

Bulls hi t weenie this, I said multiple times the change is back to normal, read all my posts, your weenie glasses said way above normal the next 10-15 days on average. your reading comprehension FTL

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Hopefully Ryan reads this twice

Ginx said:

Posted 21 November 2011 - 10:45 AM

Last nights Euro run would normally have folks all in glee with the first chance at wintry conditions, this year because of Roctober there is little. Jerry may be right about full transistion to a pattern change but my thoughts are and continue to be that the first week of Dec marks the start of the change. Bye Bye death vortex. We are going from way above normal to normal and below with snow chances. sure there will be warmup but I highly doubt we go torchy. GEFS remains steadfast.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Hopefully Ryan reads this twice

Ginx said:

Posted 21 November 2011 - 10:45 AM

Last nights Euro run would normally have folks all in glee with the first chance at wintry conditions, this year because of Roctober there is little. Jerry may be right about full transistion to a pattern change but my thoughts are and continue to be that the first week of Dec marks the start of the change. Bye Bye death vortex. We are going from way above normal to normal and below with snow chances. sure there will be warmup but I highly doubt we go torchy. GEFS remains steadfast.

Yet the GFS ensembles have it returning by 12/10.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's about as bad as it gets

Other than the "chance" around 12/6 I see nothing exciting in those maps. It's early to mid December, 850mb temps should be around 0. Nothing to see here yet.

The GEFS has a weaker vortex over AK.

The EURO has an enormous Pac storm at day 6. The GFS has a weaker system further north. I assume there are major differences in those two models beyond that point.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Yea a 975 in AK versus a 997, an inter mountain HP versus LP, what else is different, would you like me to continue. You are throwing denigration to make your points as usual, nice.

To be honest I haven't even looked at a SLP map for a day 10-15 forecast.

Look at 500mb. Sure some of the models have hinted at the possibility of popping a PNA ridge... but in general we have seen a remarkably consistent EPO death vortex... and looking at 15 day ensemble means with negative height anomalies over Alaska and Greenland does not get me excited about anything.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

To be honest I haven't even looked at a SLP map for a day 10-15 forecast.

Look at 500mb. Sure some of the models have hinted at the possibility of popping a PNA ridge... but in general we have seen a remarkably consistent EPO death vortex... and looking at 15 day ensemble means with negative height anomalies over Alaska and Greenland does not get me excited about anything.

Those are 5 h maps from the 18z GEFS, but as I said we agree to disagree. You would have hated 70/71

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

To be honest I haven't even looked at a SLP map for a day 10-15 forecast.

Look at 500mb. Sure some of the models have hinted at the possibility of popping a PNA ridge... but in general we have seen a remarkably consistent EPO death vortex... and looking at 15 day ensemble means with negative height anomalies over Alaska and Greenland does not get me excited about anything.

Did the ECM ensembles come out yet?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Man you guys are depressing. Its thanksgiving! Enjoy the weather for what it is!

I'm totally content with no snow and warm temperatures in December. Would prefer some decent snow/snow making wx in VT but I have no emotional investment in cold and snow before New Years.

A few nice wintry blasts after Christmas are great but I won't lose any sleep over a POS winter.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

To be honest I haven't even looked at a SLP map for a day 10-15 forecast.

Look at 500mb. Sure some of the models have hinted at the possibility of popping a PNA ridge... but in general we have seen a remarkably consistent EPO death vortex... and looking at 15 day ensemble means with negative height anomalies over Alaska and Greenland does not get me excited about anything.

I think we're both on the same page that there's a cold shot then a return to normal or above with a pattern post 12/10 that "appears" to be less than favorable.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

I'm totally content with no snow and warm temperatures in December. Would prefer some decent snow/snow making wx in VT but I have no emotional investment in cold and snow before New Years.

A few nice wintry blasts after Christmas are great but I won't lose any sleep over a POS winter.

It's hard to complain too much after what we were treated to last January. I know I probably still will though. :lol:

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I think we're both on the same page that there's a cold shot then a return to normal or above with a pattern post 12/10 that "appears" to be less than favorable.

Yup a lot of us have been saying that for a week or so now. Everything appears to be panning out as most of us have thought.

There's a couple in here that are out of touch with reality I think.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

It's hard to complain too much after what we were treated to last January. I know I probably still will though. :lol:

Yeah after this whole year really! lol

I wouldn't mind one big snowstorm... and enough snow and cold to keep skiing good up north. Other than that I'm fine with a snowless torch here in SNE. I know I'm in the minority on that one haha.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

All in all we're likely going to have to wait until the MJO moves into a more favorable phase to help break up this awful pattern. The good news is the EPO appears to become slightly more favorable for us down the road and despite the horrible agreement with the NAO forecasts I think that just shows right there that big changes are in store and we will see a major pattern change soon.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

All in all we're likely going to have to wait until the MJO moves into a more favorable phase to help break up this awful pattern. The good news is the EPO appears to become slightly more favorable for us down the road and despite the horrible agreement with the NAO forecasts I think that just shows right there that big changes are in store and we will see a major pattern change soon.

Yeah there are a couple problems. One of the biggest is no blocking.

But in regards to the Pacific the problem is going to be if the EPO relaxes for a bit and then reloads. I think that's quite possible and something the weenies are not fond of.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Yeah there are a couple problems. One of the biggest is no blocking.

But in regards to the Pacific the problem is going to be if the EPO relaxes for a bit and then reloads. I think that's quite possible and something the weenies are not fond of.

I think that once we do see the EPO relax it shouldn't be an issue the remainder of the winter for us. I think that once we finally do get a -NAO to setup that it should persist and we could see some decent blocking based on how the SST fields look around Greenland and with help from Solar/QBO.

Even if the EPO does reload some I wouldn't consider that something bad as it could really help to increase storm potential up this way, especially with a PNA that is probably going to hover between negative/positive at times.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

I'm totally content with no snow and warm temperatures in December. Would prefer some decent snow/snow making wx in VT but I have no emotional investment in cold and snow before New Years.

A few nice wintry blasts after Christmas are great but I won't lose any sleep over a POS winter.

I think VT will be ok in a gradient pattern SWFE's galore...snow in the northern greens, rain elsewhere. Fine with me!

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