Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[stormman]

An epic winter for all...especially Phil.

But that was a weak El Nino winter, so using that as an analog for the winter probably isn't a good idea.

What Phil is referring to, are the analogs that models throw out for the next 8-14 days.

??? I live in the philly area, and dont remember the 2003-2004 winter being anything big, the 2002-2003 winter was a epic winter though, you sure you dont mean 02-03

[Ginx snewx]

lol well the op Euro gets rid of the +EPO... but not exactly in the way we want it to.

Euro ensemble mean still keeps the +EPO going and still have a mild look... though closer to average with transient below shots day 10-16.

I think this is going to be our "pattern change"... a weaker GOA low that tries to reload after retrograding but still a hostile north atlantic and Arctic. Give the NAO/AO combination it's hard to go below normal... but I certainly think an average pattern with a wintry chance or two is in the cards Dec 5-10.

I could definitely see some SWFE events with the gradient pattern. Best chance for anything decent would be to our north in NNE.

With a return to normal Dec 1 as you posted with the MOS product, pretty much ensures the torch has been passed, literally. Look forward to chances as everything realigns for the real change. Extreme snow cover and solar still point to a wicked winter.

[ORH_wxman]

??? I live in the philly area, and dont remember the 2003-2004 winter being anything big, the 2002-2003 winter was a epic winter though, you sure you dont mean 02-03

'04 shows up as in Dec '04....he's talking about the '04-'05 winter. That was a pretty good winter in Philly...but it was beyond epic on Cape Cod and most of eastern SNE with widespread 100"+ totals.

[Ginx snewx]

AK vortex relaxes a bit on the 06z GFS, but then it comes back for the remainder of the period...probably why we get a nice transient cold snap and then back to above normal.

That brings us to about 12/10...then we all await the "WF Pattern Change"

Best to look at GEFS long term rather than an OP run.

[CT Rain]

With a return to normal Dec 1 as you posted with the MOS product, pretty much ensures the torch has been passed, literally. Look forward to chances as everything realigns for the real change. Extreme snow cover and solar still point to a wicked winter.

Well Dec 1 on the GFS MOS is still above normal... which is skewing cold for climo too. So I wouldn't get too excited about that. But the GFS op run beyond Dec 1 has a transient cold kind of look. So I at this point think even though we're back to normal for a period of time we could fairly easily see a return to torch temperatures.

[Ginx snewx]

Well Dec 1 on the GFS MOS is still above normal... which is skewing cold for climo too. So I wouldn't get too excited about that. But the GFS op run beyond Dec 1 has a transient cold kind of look. So I at this point think even though we're back to normal for a period of time we could fairly easily see a return to torch temperatures.

Meh, transient warm period this week, normal to below next two on average. My call.

[Organizing Low]

And it stays that way right west across Ontario (if you take Canadian roads) and then right across MI. But yeah you don't care about terrain if a strong LES squall comes in.

I take 20 lots of times to save the $12 toll each way and it is pretty with massive hill, valley, hill, etc... all the way.

y

I-88 and I-86 is an alternative scenic and interstate combo but quite a bit out of his way i think.

i've actually over the years started to grow 'somewhat' fond of the thruway. sure its boring, but it is a direct and fast route (rarely see cops myself).

sure the gas stations, food amenities and tolls are a ripoff but they are convenient.

western mass is a nice drive, i've stopped off several times in Lee area.

[CT Rain]

Meh, transient warm period this week, normal to below next two on average. My call.

Transient warm this week? You're joking right?

[CoastalWx]

lol well the op Euro gets rid of the +EPO... but not exactly in the way we want it to.

Euro ensemble mean still keeps the +EPO going and still have a mild look... though closer to average with transient below shots day 10-16.

I think this is going to be our "pattern change"... a weaker GOA low that tries to reload after retrograding but still a hostile north atlantic and Arctic. Give the NAO/AO combination it's hard to go below normal... but I certainly think an average pattern with a wintry chance or two is in the cards Dec 5-10.

I could definitely see some SWFE events with the gradient pattern. Best chance for anything decent would be to our north in NNE.

At least it's better than the crap we've had so far. I don't know if it means anything, but nice to see 50mb cold temp anomalies move into Canada at the end of the op run. Like I said, it may not mean much, but maybe it allows for a better bottom up warming type deal.

[ski MRG]

At least it's better than the crap we've had so far. I don't know if it means anything, but nice to see 50mb cold temp anomalies move into Canada at the end of the op run. Like I said, it may not mean much, but maybe it allows for a better bottom up warming type deal.

While it has been warmer than I would like to see it it hasn't prevented snow from falling. I would much rather deal with anomolous warmth early on as opposed to mid Winter. Some of the analog years being knocked around were very solid snowfall seasons. A few clunkers but on balance good. I think things will progress nicely as we move into ZDecember and the atmospheric log jam breaks up and re configures.

[CoastalWx]

Still a little disagreement among the models regarding the MJO, but the GEFS finally got a clue it seems.

They re not bringing it into the COD.

Euro ensembles still try to bring this into phase 6, but they are slow in doing so. They haven't changed much in over a week which makes me think that an overall regime change will be slow.

[dryslot]

They will be bored staring at brown grass month after month. Meanwhile, frequent snowfalls here will get under their skin and they won't be able to resist. All things considered the seasonal snowfall so far is strong and I believe it will continue to improve. I'm right there with WF and Ginxxx on the change.Happy Thanksgiving Jeff.

I agree Pete, They will be trenching there yards so the water will drain while the snows stacks up this way like cord wood, Happy Thanksgiving!!

[Ginx snewx]

Transient warm this week? You're joking right?

Why it lasts more than this week?

[CoastalWx]

I agree Pete, They will be trenching there yards so the water will drain while the snows stacks up this way like cord wood, Happy Thanksgiving!!

Well some of us down here have had very little...lol. Hopefully that changes in December.

[Ginx snewx]

Still a little disagreement among the models regarding the MJO, but the GEFS finally got a clue it seems.

They re not bringing it into the COD.

Euro ensembles still try to bring this into phase 6, but they are slow in doing so. They haven't changed much in over a week which makes me think that an overall regime change will be slow.

Very interesting indices trends today. All NAO PNA AO trends are much more positive than we have seen in a month. El torcho is on the way out.

[dryslot]

Well some of us down here have had very little...lol. Hopefully that changes in December.

I will join you after next week, Yeah, Dec holds some shots, Little more comforting being north

[ski MRG]

I agree Pete, They will be trenching there yards so the water will drain while the snows stacks up this way like cord wood, Happy Thanksgiving!!

I think there will be a thermal battleground whose front line will set up in the Northern MA. MAybe a Met can correct me if I'm wrong but a persistent SE ridge can work in our favor if it isn't overwhelming. Honestly, I think every bit of latitude will be crucial this go round. Glad to be at 42N.

[dryslot]

I think there will be a thermal battleground whose front line will set up in the Northern MA. MAybe a Met can correct me if I'm wrong but a persistent SE ridge can work in our favor if it isn't overwhelming. Honestly, I think every bit of latitude will be crucial this go round. Glad to be at 42N.

As well at 44N, Like yesterday's SWFE storm, Also Clippers and Miller B's up here we can do quite well, Miller A's not so much..

[CoastalWx]

For those wondering about the MJO...it's all about tropical forcing. Take the OLR anomalies for example. The blues are negative OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) while the yellows are positive OLR anomalies. When we have clouds, dust, ash, etc..this will reduce the amount of OLR going back into space. The blues are indicative of areas of active convection.

Notice how the models show the blues only moving very slowly east. Granted this is a model and subject to errors, but it gives the idea. As the convection moves east, all the latent heat released will do the same. Ridging out ahead of this complex is usually facilitated by all the heat released. It doesn't have to always occur and there are other factors that enhance or suppress this action...but it is a very important factor, especially in the dead of winter.

[ORH_wxman]

When did this thread degrade into making fun of M.A. snow climo?

C'mon guys.

[CoastalWx]

When I map out areas of convection and turbulence across the globe, you can definitely tell where this MJO wave is active. Back in October when it was across the equatorial regions of SAMR...I never saw convection like I did at that time. It wouldn't stop. Then it progresses across Africa and eventually into the Indo regions.

[ORH_wxman]

For those wondering about the MJO...it's all about tropical forcing. Take the OLR anomalies for example. The blues are negative OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) while the yellows are positive OLR anomalies. When we have clouds, dust, ash, etc..this will reduce the amount of OLR going back into space. The blues are indicative of areas of active convection.

Notice how the models show the blues only moving very slowly east. Granted this is a model and subject to errors, but it gives the idea. As the convection moves east, all the latent heat released will do the same. Ridging out ahead of this complex is usually facilitated by all the heat released. It doesn't have to always occur and there are other factors that enhance or suppress this action...but it is a very important factor, especially in the dead of winter.

You can see how its the opposite of what you normally want to see...you want blues near the dateline. There is some weak intrusion of convection toward it at the very end, but its just that....weak. I do not expect much help from the MJO in the next few weeks. I am hoping for a solid pulse though maybe later in December or January.

Hopefully even getting this MJO into phase 5 and 6 before it dies will be enough to remove the AK vortex.

[CoastalWx]

You can see how its the opposite of what you normally want to see...you want blues near the dateline. There is some weak intrusion of convection toward it at the very end, but its just that....weak. I do not expect much help from the MJO in the next few weeks. I am hoping for a solid pulse though maybe later in December or January.

Hopefully even getting this MJO into phase 5 and 6 before it dies will be enough to remove the AK vortex.

Yeah I noticed how the euro ensembles don't really have any rush to go much past p6 over the last 7 days or so.

I've been theorizing that with perhaps a weakening Nina come Feb and March maybe we can get more of an MJO push. Combined with the downwelling negative QBO, maybe we can actually have a back half to winter.

Of course the Nina may not weaken much at that time and there is the atmospheric lag...but I guess it is possible. Who knows, just sort of a WAG.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I noticed how the euro ensembles don't really have any rush to go much past p6 over the last 7 days or so.

I've been theorizing that with perhaps a weakening Nina come Feb and March maybe we can get more of an MJO push. Combined with the downwelling negative QBO, maybe we can actually have a back half to winter.

Of course the Nina may not weaken much at that time and there is the atmospheric lag...but I guess it is possible. Who knows, just sort of a WAG.

Well I know some like the idea of a SSW in January which may do well in making Feb colder. We could always get an MJO pulse too in Jan like in 1976, 2009, and last year which gave us nice cold patterns.

[Logan11]

Happy Thanksgiving... Didn't Lyndonville do well?

I see the 12Z GFS ends the torch out here by 12Z Monday....albeit Monday will be an above normal day given the mild start - colder air will be working in.

Happy Thanksgiving guys! Enjoy it! Especially you lucky SOB's with snow!

[ctsnowstorm628]

Happy Thanksgiving... Didn't Lyndonville do well?

I see the 12Z GFS ends the torch out here by 12Z Monday....albeit Monday will be an above normal day given the mild start - colder air will be working in.

They did quite well. 9" but I'm home visiting my parents for Thanksgiving in rain-soaked CT haha give it til 12/1 cold air will atleast start psuhing into NNE and eventually settle south by 12/15ish

[Logan11]

I remember Thanksgiving 1985 I was going to school at Carleton U. In Ottawa that year and an event with similar snowfall distribution hit just before the holiday. We drove through a raging snowstorm down I-87 through the Dacks to just above ALB where it was mostly a bad ice storm.

They did quite well. 9" but I'm home visiting my parents for Thanksgiving in rain-soaked CT haha give it til 12/1 cold air will atleast start psuhing into NNE and eventually settle south by 12/15ish

[ORH_wxman]

I remember Thanksgiving 1985 I was going to school at Carleton U. In Ottawa that year and an event with similar snowfall distribution hit just before the holiday. We drove through a raging snowstorm down I-87 through the Dacks to just above ALB where it was mostly a bad ice storm.

'85 storm was a bit colder...we had about 3 inches of snow here and then a bad ice storm. We lost power that day but thankfully only for about an hour.

[Logan11]

Yeah ...Saratoga had a decent snow, but below that ice if I recall correctly. We did have a good amount of ice at my parents house 38 miles below ALB so that would have a been a little south of this current event.

'85 storm was a bit colder...we had about 3 inches of snow here and then a bad ice storm. We lost power that day but thankfully only for about an hour.

[ski MRG]

For those wondering about the MJO...it's all about tropical forcing. Take the OLR anomalies for example. The blues are negative OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) while the yellows are positive OLR anomalies. When we have clouds, dust, ash, etc..this will reduce the amount of OLR going back into space. The blues are indicative of areas of active convection.

Notice how the models show the blues only moving very slowly east. Granted this is a model and subject to errors, but it gives the idea. As the convection moves east, all the latent heat released will do the same. Ridging out ahead of this complex is usually facilitated by all the heat released. It doesn't have to always occur and there are other factors that enhance or suppress this action...but it is a very important factor, especially in the dead of winter.

Scott, great post, very illustrative.