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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond


Typhoon Tip

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Maybe if we shed all of this negativity, it will snow...

:arrowhead:Scooter is just reporting on what he sees. At least there are possibilities...someday, somewhere

I know, I know. I wouldn't want it any other way. I was just ribbing him. I'm not at all negative, I'm having a White Thanksgiving after a White Halloween. What's to be negative about. I can do very well in SWFEs. I pray for the people on the CP though, oh do I pray.

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I know, I know. I wouldn't want it any other way. I was just ribbing him. I'm not at all negative, I'm having a White Thanksgiving after a White Halloween. What's to be negative about. I can do very well in SWFEs. I pray for the people on the CP though, oh do I pray.

SNE has a large climate diversity. There is you at 1400' in the Berks, and there are people on ACK. I try to be encompassing for all. Obviously you are always favored..that goes without saying. Perhaps my tone would be more positive if I lived there, but I'm just giving an overall blanket statement for SNE.

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SNE has a large climate diversity. There is you at 1400' in the Berks, and there are people on ACK. I try to be encompassing for all. Obviously you are always favored..that goes without saying. Perhaps my tone would be more positive if I lived there, but I'm just giving an overall blanket statement for SNE.

I know you are Scott. That's what makes you such an asset to us all. I actually don't think there was any negative spin to your post. The facts and just the facts. Leave the spin to us weenies.lol

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I know you are Scott. That's what makes you such an asset to us all. I actually don't think there was any negative spin to your post. The facts and just the facts. Leave the spin to us weenies.lol

Quite the start of winter for you guys. Still quite early for us....well you too lol, but you got crushed. I miss the back half of winter, because we usually do pretty good. Hopefully this year bucks the trend of lousy endings.

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Quite the start of winter for you guys. Still quite early for us....well you too lol, but you got crushed. I miss the back half of winter, because we usually do pretty good. Hopefully this year bucks the trend of lousy endings.

So you're hoping for a happy ending. I think that's a universal. Now that some time has elapsed since the Great Pumpkin Storm I realize just how awesome it was. That death band that parked over us was so much fun. I'll never forget playing out in the heavy snow with my daughter. I was just ecstatic. More good times dead ahead.

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So you're hoping for a happy ending. I think that's a universal. Now that some time has elapsed since the Great Pumpkin Storm I realize just how awesome it was. That death band that parked over us was so much fun. I'll never forget playing out in the heavy snow with my daughter. I was just ecstatic. More good times dead ahead.

Those bands rule.

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Feels like near winter tonight. Will we go sustained pattern cold/snow in early December? Let me throw it back to you...have we ever? Very rare. But I think we're getting there. The patten change begins 12/10 and is compete 12/25.

I was in Trader Joes picking up some wine, cheese, other goodies. Music overhead was loud and nice.....

Some of the circa 1960 stuff was playing and this other old man was singing along. We were kids when it was on the radio. Finally, "Little Star" by the Elegants (pronounced with the the accent on the last syllable like ell e GONE'ts). I remember listening to that song on the radio in the summer of 1958. A long and fun trip it's been with miles to go before I sleep.

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Feels like near winter tonight. Will we go sustained pattern cold/snow in early December? Let me throw it back to you...have we ever? Very rare. But I think we're getting there. The patten change begins 12/10 and is compete 12/25.

I was in Trader Joes picking up some wine, cheese, other goodies. Music overhead was loud and nice.....

Some of the circa 1960 stuff was playing and this other old man was singing along. We were kids when it was on the radio. Finally, "Little Star" by the Elegants (pronounced with the the accent on the last syllable like ell e GONE'ts). I remember listening to that song on the radio in the summer of 1958. A long and fun trip it's been with miles to go before I sleep.

You mean feet of snow to go before you sleep.

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Feels like near winter tonight. Will we go sustained pattern cold/snow in early December? Let me throw it back to you...have we ever? Very rare. But I think we're getting there. The patten change begins 12/10 and is compete 12/25.

I was in Trader Joes picking up some wine, cheese, other goodies. Music overhead was loud and nice.....

Some of the circa 1960 stuff was playing and this other old man was singing along. We were kids when it was on the radio. Finally, "Little Star" by the Elegants (pronounced with the the accent on the last syllable like ell e GONE'ts). I remember listening to that song on the radio in the summer of 1958. A long and fun trip it's been with miles to go before I sleep.

I could easily argue that the pattern changes Dec 1 with the relocation of the PV and the reorientation of the Jet. Is it a below normal change, no its a change to normal from way above normal! We will have stepped down. If however we go negative EPO by Dec 5th then it's a huge pattern change with mega implications. I have liked and still like the fact that PV dumped AK with brutal cold so early in the season. Let's get through the next four day transitional overheating and start our normal first week of Dec with a shot of some goodies.

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Feels like near winter tonight. Will we go sustained pattern cold/snow in early December? Let me throw it back to you...have we ever? Very rare. But I think we're getting there. The patten change begins 12/10 and is compete 12/25.

I was in Trader Joes picking up some wine, cheese, other goodies. Music overhead was loud and nice.....

Some of the circa 1960 stuff was playing and this other old man was singing along. We were kids when it was on the radio. Finally, "Little Star" by the Elegants (pronounced with the the accent on the last syllable like ell e GONE'ts). I remember listening to that song on the radio in the summer of 1958. A long and fun trip it's been with miles to go before I sleep.

I have satellite radio and I force the youngin's to tour the decades, 60's on 6, 70's on 7. Occasionally if they p*ss me off the have to listen to a few Sinatra tunes. When we get back from break it'll be Holly, the holiday music channel. lol A nice White Thanksgiving like the good ol' days Jerry. I was just outside and it's cold with the wind is forcing the ice laden trees to creak and crack. We're heading into my favorite time of year. We're going to get nailed from wire to wire.

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I could easily argue that the pattern changes Dec 1 with the relocation of the PV and the reorientation of the Jet. Is it a below normal change, no its a change to normal from way above normal! We will have stepped down. If however we go negative EPO by Dec 5th then it's a huge pattern change with mega implications. I have liked and still like the fact that PV dumped AK with brutal cold so early in the season. Let's get through the next four day transitional overheating and start our normal first week of Dec with a shot of some goodies.

I was speaking to the Willow crowd earlier. It's been relentlessly cold. When it warms a little bit it snows heavily. Nirvana. Happy Thanksgiving GinXXX!!!

INCLUDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL

400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS

10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH.

.THANKSGIVING DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY MORNING FOG. HIGHS

AROUND 5 ABOVE EXCEPT 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK.

VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW EXCEPT

20 BELOW TO 25 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE EXCEPT 10 BELOW

TO 15 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW EXCEPT

25 BELOW TO 30 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS

5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW. HIGHS 5 TO 15.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF

SNOW. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. HIGHS 5 TO 15

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I have satellite radio and I force the youngin's to tour the decades, 60's on 6, 70's on 7.Occasionally if they p*ss me off the have to listen to a few Sinatra tunes. When we get back from break it'll be Holly, the holiday music channel. lol A nice White Thanksgiving like the good ol' days Jerry. I was just outside and it's cold with the wind is forcing the ice laden trees to creak and crack. We're heading into my favorite time of year. We're going to get nailed from wire to wire.

Thats good for them, You should fire up some Nat King Cole and some Burle Ives tunes heading into the holiday......

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Ultimately cannot get too excited about a persistent pattern change until later runs obliterate the reload on the AK low.

<img src="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_npac_384_1000_500_thick.gif" />

Not a reload to me. Vortex has been kicked well west.

18dad8de-d510-50f5.jpg

Also ensemble mean has it similarly at that time frame.

Basic theme is it kicks west but yes probably returns but not nearly as intense. Your're going to bust on the next inch in BOS. I owe you dinner....maybe we should double down? I say by 12/25.

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Happy T-day everyone.

Euro ensembles are more uncertain on how much cold air comes in next week...they seem to like the idea of the weekend better. They still have a pretty decent period of PNA ridging but the EPO looks to stay positive. It def wasn't buying what that 18z GEFS run was trying to sell.

Still the PNA ridging may give us some chances through the first week of the month and perhaps to the 10th or so. No blocking to speak of showing up, so we are likely dealing with SWFEs or clippers for winter threats...maybe we can get lucky with a little clipper/redeveloper type system but who knows.

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Happy T-giving all. Frosty morning this AM. Rare that we get such a thick frost on the hill. 28.4

Looks like we'll be driving to Buffalo next Saturday in a snowstorm.. Few more mild days and then it's over

A few mild days then it warms up again

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no drastic changes for the time being it seems. everything kind of seems on track with what we've been discussing for the better part of the last 3 weeks.

looks like a prolonged stretch starting tomorrow of well above normal temps...which hopefully comes to an end thu/fri of next week as some more seasonable early december air tries to make inroads.

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