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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
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Did you see its performance with todays storm, pretty damn good, not a bad tool at all.

They were a little high imby. As for Halloween, the death band helped them verify...not sure if it was a case where they were right for the wrong reasons. I think we need more events to get a better gauge.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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They were a little high imby. As for Halloween, the death band helped them verify...not sure if it was a case where they were right for the wrong reasons. I think we need more events to get a better gauge.

IMO, they are too high in borderline lower levels, but I agree....we need more sample size.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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They were a little high imby. As for Halloween, the death band helped them verify...not sure if it was a case where they were right for the wrong reasons. I think we need more events to get a better gauge.

IMO, they are too high in borderline lower levels, but I agree....we need more sample size.

Well thats better than dismissing them offhand like you were and comparing them to DGEX, best seems 12-24 hour lead, like MM5. FYI we only had .80 down in SECT today, MM5 did well with that. Looks like EMA got hammerred pretty good with rain. Saw Morrissey BLVD closed from tidal overwash but NBD.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Well thats better than dismissing them offhand like you were and comparing them to DGEX, best seems 12-24 hour lead, like MM5. FYI we only had .80 down in SECT today, MM5 did well with that. Looks like EMA got hammerred pretty good with rain. Saw Morrissey BLVD closed from tidal overwash but NBD.

Eh, they still have weenie clown solutions. I'm not going to take them that seriously until they prove it to me. At least last night's run wasn't horrible...but that was the 00z run. It better not be...lol.

I don't normally look at snowfall maps except for amusements.

Morrissey shut down due to coastal flooding and heavy rain.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Pretty big change on this run. That transient ridge in the Atlantic combined with those higher heigts ion the EPAC drill colder air into the US. It's not arctic air, but colder air nonetheless. We'll see how long it lasts.

Nice gift (to me). First day of met winter.....65.....my good sweet lord I'm officially in every calculation an old man!!!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Pretty big change on this run. That transient ridge in the Atlantic combined with those higher heigts ion the EPAC drill colder air into the US. It's not arctic air, but colder air nonetheless. We'll see how long it lasts.

Dec '75...bit of PNA ridging and a N ATL ridge...but +NAO/+AO

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Pretty big change on this run. That transient ridge in the Atlantic combined with those higher heigts ion the EPAC drill colder air into the US. It's not arctic air, but colder air nonetheless. We'll see how long it lasts.

Nice, can we cook up a Jerry birthday present maybe a windex squall or something?

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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Pretty big change on this run. That transient ridge in the Atlantic combined with those higher heigts ion the EPAC drill colder air into the US. It's not arctic air, but colder air nonetheless. We'll see how long it lasts.

do the ensembles put positive height anomalies over the entire state of AK and beyond like the op?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Dec '75...bit of PNA ridging and a N ATL ridge...but +NAO/+AO

Yeah I thought about that pic you sent of that month. The H5 configuration screams SWFE. It relaxes a couple of days later, but hopefully we can get an chance of some sort of winter threat that week. Looks like easily could in that configuration. Still lots of time, but that might be a shot before the ridging relaxes.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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do the ensembles put positive height anomalies over the entire state of AK and beyond like the op?

It looks they get into the southern part of the state...esp SE. The northern part still has some pretty low heights. Its not a full blown -EPO like the OP run....which I suspected was a bit extreme anyway.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Yeah I thought about that pic you sent of that month. The H5 configuration screams SWFE. It relaxes a couple of days later, but hopefully we can get an chance of some sort of winter threat that week. Looks like easily could in that configuration. Still lots of time, but that might be a shot before the ridging relaxes.

Yep..the split flow with the trough in the SW still wants to pump up the SE ridge so its opposing forces. The N ATL ridging and the slight PNA ridge want to help push cold into the northern tier to fight the SE Ridge....def could be some SWFEs if that verifies.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Yep..the split flow with the trough in the SW still wants to pump up the SE ridge so its opposing forces. The N ATL ridging and the slight PNA ridge want to help push cold into the northern tier to fight the SE Ridge....def could be some SWFEs if that verifies.

10-15 days of way above normal cancel?

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