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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Just looked at the 12z GFS and if and that is a big if it were to verify, things will get much more interesting the week after Christmas for cold and snowy conditions. The lakes would definitely fire up! I would like to see some run to run consistency though. This run was definitely the coldest run in awhile.

Beautiful moring here - FINALLY! 28 degrees with moderate snow, with temps that should stay below freezing all day. The latest snowcover IMBY by 13 days since I began recording 10 years ago.

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Since I first moved to this property in 2005 we have had one brown Christmases and five white Christmases. Only 2006 was snowless.

Odds probably about 75% that 2011 is snowless, but still some chance of a minor event late week.

dam, thought we may have a shot mid week, now not looking good. Looks like a brown xmas over the upstate :(

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I think the best theory on the light snow overnight is that it was Lake Champlain Effect that came south of the northerly winds and then was turned west in the low level flow and upsloped into the Helderberg Escarpment - giving us that half inch blizzard. :santa:

Last week I had almost an inch of LES from Ontario, thats pretty rare for Lake George.

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High of 21 here today...

The Euro is starting to look a bit more hopeful for some modest snow chances late week into Christmas/Boxing Day.

And the 18Z GFS shows an interesting situation for Christmas Eve:

gfs_namer_150_1000_500_thick.gif

In 1947-1948...we had 8.3" to start the season...1.3" in Nov...7.0" in Dec. We have a shot at the slowest since then or possibly beating that.

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In 1947-1948...we had 8.3" to start the season...1.3" in Nov...7.0" in Dec. We have a shot at the slowest since then or possibly beating that.

I'm going to stick with my monthly total of 5.5" at KBUF for this month. They are at 3.0" I believe so 2.5" is what I think will fall during the rest of the month. 3.0" at my place in Cleveland Hill,NY. That is my monthly and annual snow total so far.
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Devin I went to Cleveland Hill High School and it is not a town or city. Its just a school....Just put Cheektowaga New York bud.... Also 7.6 inches here to date.

Its actually a hamlet in the town of cheektowaga. Its just like eggertsville or snyder in the town of amhest. Google map it Or go to the NWS site and type in cleveland hill, ny... It comes up...
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Since I first moved to this property in 2005 we have had one brown Christmases and five white Christmases. Only 2006 was snowless.

Odds probably about 75% that 2011 is snowless, but still some chance of a minor event late week.

This will be my 10th Christmas here and maybe my first brown one.

Got down to 5 this morn.

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But since expectations for a white Christmas have been about zero ...even a few inches on Christmas morning would be sweet. Just 12 more runs to go. :)

Overnight Euro run said Merry Christmas! :santa: Of course its a week out and normally one wouldn't latch on a solution...but since its keeping with the early season trend of nailing areas just S & E of ALB with the heaviest snow, I'm pretty sure it will be the final solution :P

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