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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12

Logan11

By Logan11,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

How about those winters with less then 4 inches in December which is extremely likely at this point!?!

I have a feeling that Thursday night into Friday will bring us about 7/10 (.7) of an inch of snow when the rain changes to snow/snow showers behind the FROPA with some WNW winds brining us a little bit more snow showers which would bring our total up to 3.5" for December. Then I think Sunday into Monday we could get a little lake effect to set up near BUF as the winds are from the SW with decent moisture and a lake at 44 degrees with 850 temps around -8 to -10C which I think will drop around 2 inches leave BUF with a total of 5.5" for the month.. This may need to go upward a bit if the models stay consistent for once in showing signs of a W coast ridge and a G Lakes trough setting up around/a bit before Christmas...
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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

It looks like the next potential snow maker could be around this time next week..Here's accuweathers preliminary call..

The ecm actually has the storm cutting west of us but still manages to dump a few inches of snow in spots (before changeover)..(snowfall image posted below, hrs 162-168)

I also threw in the 12z gfs and 18z dgex, now obviously things can and will change but atleast its something to track.. pimp.gif

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Stop acting like were going to get an average year worth of snow at KBUF, because were not.

can you link to where I said that?

Proclamations of less than 4" in December are foolish...we already have 2.8"...we can't see out with reasonable accuracy for specific threats more than 5 to 7 days...just like record breaking low snowfall totals are foolish. The 22.4" was recorded at the old downtown site...it's likely we don't even come close to that for a very long time. The airport averages 10+ more than downtown does.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

La Nina years with slow starts (since 1950), less than 4" in Nov

1954-1955 Nov 0.7" total 84.8"

1973-1974 Nov 3.0" total 88.7"

1984-1985 Nov 1.4" total 107.2"

1988-1989 Nov 0.6" total 67.4"

1999-2000 Nov 0.9" total 63.6"

2007-2008 Nov 3.4" total 103.8"

mean 88"

higher than long term average of 83.6" but less than the "normal" of 94.7"

Sure here it is. axesmiley.png

If you could not catch the sarcasm from less than 4 inches I suggest you reread that post several times to catch the drift.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Well I apologize, just not everything that is said on a board comes across the right way. Latest NWS FD:

LOOK FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS

ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HYBRID SYNOPTIC-LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS

WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C COULD

ENHANCE THE ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND

THE FORECAST AREA/S LOCATION UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A

JET STREAK DIVING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME MODEL AGREEMENT IS

SURPRISINGLY GOOD REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AND AS A RESULT WILL BUMP

POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE...BUT I DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO CRAZY AT THIS

POINT GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT MINOR DETAILS

COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON ALL IMPORTANT DETAILS.

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

So here's the Dec 14th season-to-date snowfall for Syracuse:

2010: 50.0"

2011: 0.7"

Just crazy!

That said, people need to just chill out. Lake temps are anomalously warm, surface temps in Nunavut are anomalously cold. When the AO shifts, it's entirely possible that the polar vortex ejects southward over the Great Lakes (has happened before following very +AO), and it's not out of the question that some locations will make up for their yearly deficits in a week.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

So here's the Dec 14th season-to-date snowfall for Syracuse:

2010: 50.0"

2011: 0.7"

Just crazy!

That said, people need to just chill out. Lake temps are anomalously warm, surface temps in Nunavut are anomalously cold. When the AO shifts, it's entirely possible that the polar vortex ejects southward over the Great Lakes (has happened before following very +AO), and it's not out of the question that some locations will make up for their yearly deficits in a week.

Dont get me excited lol. I would die for a Dec 2001 repeat. The pattern seems eerily similar.
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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Well I apologize, just not everything that is said on a board comes across the right way. Latest NWS FD:

LOOK FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS

ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HYBRID SYNOPTIC-LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS

WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C COULD

ENHANCE THE ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND

THE FORECAST AREA/S LOCATION UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A

JET STREAK DIVING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME MODEL AGREEMENT IS

SURPRISINGLY GOOD REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AND AS A RESULT WILL BUMP

POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE...BUT I DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO CRAZY AT THIS

POINT GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT MINOR DETAILS

COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON ALL IMPORTANT DETAILS.

It's cool dude...sorry if I was a bit harsh. I know the pattern sucks...it's improving..but still sucks lol. I hold out a great deal of hope for January...things are starting to look up...but December is pretty likely to come in below normal...but i'd guess we pull off 10-15" by the end of the month.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

It's cool dude...sorry if I was a bit harsh. I know the pattern sucks...it's improving..but still sucks lol. I hold out a great deal of hope for January...things are starting to look up...but December is pretty likely to come in below normal...but i'd guess we pull off 10-15" by the end of the month.

You think 10-15" at KBUF or ski country?
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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

You think 10-15" at KBUF or ski country?

in the city...total by the end of the month. We've had 2.8" in this god awful pattern in the first 14 days...the pattern over the second half should be better...not great...but better...combine that will climo...I think we can do it. I mean honestly who the hell knows...we can get favorable WSW winds for 8 hours and get 25" of snow lol.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

in the city...total by the end of the month. We've had 2.8" in this god awful pattern in the first 14 days...the pattern over the second half should be better...not great...but better...combine that will climo...I think we can do it. I mean honestly who the hell knows...we can get favorable WSW winds for 8 hours and get 25" of snow lol.

Very true lol. Its pretty much like trying to shoot an apple off someones head blindfolded. Anything can happen. (bad anology lol)
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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Where is BufKIt showing shear? I trust NWS over anyone, will see what there discussions says tomorrow. I like hearing from Mets on this blog, really awesome!

Yesterdays 12z and 18z GFS was showing W to WSW winds at 850 with E to ESE winds at the surface. Now if that isnt shear i dont know what is. In any case the 06z models have backed off the shear and look better for a okay little hybrid event.
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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE TIMES WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED. THE BIGGEST DETRIMENT FOR ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS IS THAT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH SHEAR GENERATED BY THE PASSING SHORT WAVES

Thats from this mornigs AFD from BUF

They dont seem very impressed and neither do I. Maybe the ski resorts can squeeze out 6 inches...

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

56.5F (yes almost 60 degrees!!!!) here in Cleveland Hill,NY. Rain gauge has .82" in it since the rain began yesterday and with this ominous line of rain and embedded thunderstorms I'll likely go over 1 inch for this event. The line of storms from this West is actually very impressive especially for December. It has some 50-55 dbz cells in it with one storm A3 which is out near Long Point Ontario having a 40% chance of hail with a 10% chance of severe hail....

Needless to say looking forward to the colder temps and chance of snow showers after today...

post-1351-0-52816700-1323977792.png

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

0Z Euro has a decent marginal temp snow for Upstate New York on Wed, with a few other possibilities down the road. GFS is warmer and further NW with track of low. Not worth getting excited over yet.......but worth watching.

Even 06z Gfs Has a nice dump from BUF northward. It has .60" Falling once 850s drop below zero with surface temps in the low 30s. This could be a rain to a 4-6" snowfall from the thruway north. Still early though but good signs compared to what we have had.
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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

0Z Euro has a decent marginal temp snow for Upstate New York on Wed, with a few other possibilities down the road. GFS is warmer and further NW with track of low. Not worth getting excited over yet.......but worth watching.

I'm not too excited about that Wednesday event. Judging by how this week's even turned out (expectations of a frozen front end a few days out were way off), I'm thinking it may not be much to be excited over. Maybe N&W of Albany has a shot. I'm more interested in seeing how the models handle the system behind it as we head towards the end of the week and Christmas Eve. The Euro last night was especially interesting @ 180 hrs. Set up looks pretty good other than the lack of arctic air in place...just need good timing to get some phasing between the northern and southern streams. Its probably our only shot at a white Christmas.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

I agree. It will either be cold enough for good snow but drier due to a more southerly track or warmer and wetter with more rain. To get a decent snowfall out of the Wed event, everything will have to work out perfectly...a threading the needle kind of situation. The next threat does look intriguing, but my hopes are low at this point. I can't believe that we had a strong low north of us in Quebec today with howling west winds all day and it was in the 40's. Cold air is as hard to come by now-a-days as cheap gas.

I'm not too excited about that Wednesday event. Judging by how this week's even turned out (expectations of a frozen front end a few days out were way off), I'm thinking it may not be much to be excited over. Maybe N&W of Albany has a shot. I'm more interested in seeing how the models handle the system behind it as we head towards the end of the week and Christmas Eve. The Euro last night was especially interesting @ 180 hrs. Set up looks pretty good other than the lack of arctic air in place...just need good timing to get some phasing between the northern and southern streams. Its probably our only shot at a white Christmas.

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