phil882 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 eastern NYers are probably going to want to check out the euro. You could say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 bust here in Toronto. Not looking as cold as previously thought for later this week either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hey Ottawa, if were suppose to get heavy LES later this week, I would advise any snow lover to come down from Toronto. Its only an hour 30 minute drive. You will see snowfall rates like you've never seen in any synoptic snowstorm. Nothing compares to December LES. (If it comes to fruition) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I see the Euro is trying to keep hope alive...but an outlier to everything else. I think I'd prefer to be completely out of the game at this point to have the Euro teasing us to the bitter end only to potentially screw us at the last minute. But we shall see. Under 48 hrs now...model solutions should really be starting to come to some sort of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hey Ottawa, if were suppose to get heavy LES later this week, I would advise any snow lover to come down from Toronto. Its only an hour 30 minute drive. You will see snowfall rates like you've never seen in any synoptic snowstorm. Nothing compares to December LES. (If it comes to fruition) definitely agree. If you were here last year for the Dec 1st event it was amazing. 40 inches in two days. Rates at times were over 3"/HR for hours at a time with thunder every 5 minutes and complete whiteouts even with NO wind. The snow was so deep the town of West Seneca had to fill 10,000 dump trucks an haul it to a spot on southpark Ave. Nothing compares to a good December lake effect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I see the Euro is trying to keep hope alive...but an outlier to everything else. I think I'd prefer to be completely out of the game at this point to have the Euro teasing us to the bitter end only to potentially screw us at the last minute. But we shall see. Under 48 hrs now...model solutions should really be starting to come to some sort of consensus. The euro ensembles came northwest along with the op...given that the trend is on the best models in the euro and it's ensembles I think it's real. The NAM came northwest again, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think it's time to start a storm thread. I'm on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Someone should start a thread on Friday's Lake effect potential,12 nam looks gooooooooooooooood!. :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Get er done!!!!!!! Someone should start a thread on Friday's Lake effect potential,12 nam looks gooooooooooooooood!. :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Someone should start a thread on Friday's Lake effect potential,12 nam looks gooooooooooooooood!. :snowing: 12z Nam looks great for bug. Verbatim it would be a metro area special. Probably Amherst, Williamsville, Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Depew, and Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z Nam looks great for bug. Verbatim it would be a metro area special. Probably Amherst, Williamsville, Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Depew, and Lancaster. Hopefully it pans out,we're still 3 days away haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hopefully it pans out,we're still 3 days away haha. Start a thread for this event plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 In many of our better snowfalls in the last 40 years around here, they have come about after a late 24 or 36 hour trend to a more amplified northwest solution. This usually happens in a situation more like this where the NAO is neutral or positive. So this 'could' actually pan out for ALB, but obviously a close shave. Now when there is a - NAO and the model runs continually fringe us around here .... then it is much harder and less likely that any appreciable northward trending will benefit us. It's a generalization of course and one can find example that buck the trends. I see the Euro is trying to keep hope alive...but an outlier to everything else. I think I'd prefer to be completely out of the game at this point to have the Euro teasing us to the bitter end only to potentially screw us at the last minute. But we shall see. Under 48 hrs now...model solutions should really be starting to come to some sort of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll be coming east from Hamilton on Friday midday or afternoon... QEW over to IAG 190, 290 to 90 east I guess.... I wonder if any of the bands will come from the southwest and reach the Thruway between BUF and ROC... ..Or would I have to make a little diversion. LOL 12z Nam looks great for bug. Verbatim it would be a metro area special. Probably Amherst, Williamsville, Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Depew, and Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Nice FROPA in Albany. Went from a light muggy 60 degree shower to foggy drizzle in the 40's in a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Start a thread for this event plz I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 how's the long range looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 yawnsville, synoptically and cold wise at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 yawnsville, synoptically and cold wise at least No kidding. This is looking increasingly like 2001 so far. That year I remember watching the models and listening to Joe Bastardi saying that cold was coming, yet nothing came, outside of the snow belts. Even Fall 2006 had a chilly October. If this winter turns into a dud snow-wise, it'll be the third year in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 how's the long range looking? Good looking synoptic storm around December 16-18th timeframe, but I'm sure that'll change. What i want is something like December 1993. Big storm around the 18th-19th, followed by siberian outbreak. Doubt it'll happen though. No Mount Pinatubo to help us out. Other than that, looks mild and boring with the exception of Buffalo tomorrow. Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Good looking synoptic storm around December 16-18th timeframe, but I'm sure that'll change. What i want is something like December 1993. Big storm around the 18th-19th, followed by siberian outbreak. Doubt it'll happen though. No Mount Pinatubo to help us out. Other than that, looks mild and boring with the exception of Buffalo tomorrow. Enjoy the snow! Thanks man,you can take a drive down to Niagara falls Ontario! they seem to be the jackpot for this event. Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region8:39 PM EST Thursday 08 December 2011 Snow squall watch for Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region continued Snow squalls likely from tonight to Friday afternoon. Cold westerly winds over the relatively warm waters of Northern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will continue to generate locally heavy flurries from time to time and move into the Parry Sound - Muskoka and Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet regions. Snow squalls may temporarily affect the Southern Haliburton region this evening. Conditions will become more favourable for stronger and more organized snow squalls to develop late this evening across Northern Georgian Bay and move into the Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet region. Local snowfall amounts of 10 cm tonight and 15 cm on Friday will be possible there. Over the Parry Sound - Muskoka region tonight and Friday. Weaker bands of lake effect snow are expected to continue. Current indications suggest that conditions over Southern Georgian Bay will become more favourable for snow squalls to develop Friday night as the winds becoming more northwesterly. Over the Lower Great Lakes, conditions will become more favourable for snow squalls to develop over Lake Erie overnight. Southwesterly winds could bring 10 cm of wet snow into the Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region tonight and another 15 cm on Friday. However, the snow should be wet enough to melt on most Major roads initially but will accumulate enough before day break to affect travel. Driving conditions will deteriorate tonight with accumulating snow on untreated roads. Motorists should allow extra time to reach their destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Coldest of the season at 12.0F. And that could hold for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 OK, here's my question: what do you meteorologically expert folks think are the chances I'll have snow on the ground on Christmas morning here in Binghamton, NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I made it down to 6 last night. Also, I just made a blog post on lake effect snow. http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/#!/2011/12/lake-effect-snow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Think we may break a record for lowest snow total in a season at KBUF with the pattern looking the way it is for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Think we may break a record for lowest snow total in a season at KBUF with the pattern looking the way it is for the next few weeks. 22.4" from 1889-90 is the record to beat for Buffalo (records back to ~1885 iirc). For the more recent numbers it's 40.1" in '48-49. 45.5" is the number to beat in Jamestown from '48-49 (records back to 1895, reliably from ~1922). For a bit of perspective, '31-32 and '32-33, considered two of the most downright horrific winters of the 20th century, had 87.1" and 56.9", respectively. The COOP averages (not including last year) 98.0" across all of its complete winters. I don't think we'll beat these records, but nothing looks very hopeful anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 La Nina years with slow starts (since 1950), less than 4" in Nov 1954-1955 Nov 0.7" total 84.8" 1973-1974 Nov 3.0" total 88.7" 1984-1985 Nov 1.4" total 107.2" 1988-1989 Nov 0.6" total 67.4" 1999-2000 Nov 0.9" total 63.6" 2007-2008 Nov 3.4" total 103.8" mean 88" higher than long term average of 83.6" but less than the "normal" of 94.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 La Nina years with slow starts (since 1950), less than 4" in Nov 1954-1955 Nov 0.7" total 84.8" 1973-1974 Nov 3.0" total 88.7" 1984-1985 Nov 1.4" total 107.2" 1988-1989 Nov 0.6" total 67.4" 1999-2000 Nov 0.9" total 63.6" 2007-2008 Nov 3.4" total 103.8" mean 88" higher than long term average of 83.6" but less than the "normal" of 94.7" this maybe one of those late start winters that last thru April.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 this maybe one of those late start winters that last thru April.. How about those winters with less then 4 inches in December which is extremely likely at this point!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Okay so heres My breakdown of what has and what I think will happen for the Winterat KBUF ... We had a T for November and 2.8" so far in December. Below is what I think will happen this winter for KBUF. NOV- T DEC- 5.5" JAN- 20.7" FEB- 11.3" MAR- 26.6" APR- 3.5" MAY- T SEASON- 67.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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