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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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NAM backed off, so it's basically 0Z NAM verses everything else for a decent event. Expectations are low, so we can be pleasantly surprised if this turns into anything. 6Z NAM gives a decent snow event to West Virginia to the Poconos.....NAM is such a heart breaking teaser!

Euro looks like a scraper for the capital region on NW. GFS has been offshore for a couple of runs. Setup is just too flat to get hopes up for anything. If things come together perfectly, maybe we get lucky...but I suspect we've still got some more waiting to do before our next legitimate threat.

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Actually the 0Z UKMET hit ENY hard, but it is alone now that the NAM has jumped ship....

Of course light snow on the NAM almost touches the CD so we aren't talking about a huge shift to get some effects back into our area.

NAM backed off, so it's basically 0Z NAM verses everything else for a decent event. Expectations are low, so we can be pleasantly surprised if this turns into anything. 6Z NAM gives a decent snow event to West Virginia to the Poconos.....NAM is such a heart breaking teaser!

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I forgot to look at the Ukie....at this point it looks like we'll have to wait a bit longer for a good storm to track.....I'm losing hope on this one. Hopefully our patience will pay off. Snow coverage in the DAKS is very light.....mostly above 4,000 ft. on northern slopes. At least it's gonna cool off....and maybe some lake effect by the end of the week.... boring!!!!!

Actually the 0Z UKMET hit ENY hard, but it is alone now that the NAM has jumped ship....

Of course light snow on the NAM almost touches the CD so we aren't talking about a huge shift to get some effects back into our area.

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From the main storm thread on the NE subforum comes word that the GEFS (ensembles) put the .25" line back to ALB. FWIW.....

I think that kind of thing is still very much on the table ...though feeling that the better snow is confined to western NE probably.

I forgot to look at the Ukie....at this point it looks like we'll have to wait a bit longer for a good storm to track.....I'm losing hope on this one. Hopefully our patience will pay off. Snow coverage in the DAKS is very light.....mostly above 4,000 ft. on northern slopes. At least it's gonna cool off....and maybe some lake effect by the end of the week.... boring!!!!!

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Euro a hit now for the Mid Hudson Valley on south and Berkshires, lighter snow grazes ALB. I guess maybe an inch of snow at ALB taken verbatim.

50 more miles north please. :)

From the main storm thread on the NE subforum comes word that the GEFS (ensembles) put the .25" line back to ALB. FWIW.....

I think that kind of thing is still very much on the table ...though feeling that the better snow is confined to western NE probably.

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I know I shouldn't give up yet. I'll change my avatar when we get our first inch of winter snow, not the silly fall stuff we got in October.

From the main storm thread on the NE subforum comes word that the GEFS (ensembles) put the .25" line back to ALB. FWIW.....

I think that kind of thing is still very much on the table ...though feeling that the better snow is confined to western NE probably.

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18Z NAM keeps things interesting. Quite a spread in the models. Hopefully someone in the Northeast cashes in on this one. Tight SE to NW gradient.

post-1592-0-32038300-1323118072.gif

This Upstate New York snow drought is unbelievable. We need this thing to shift over 100-200 miles to end it for everyone.

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18Z NAM keeps things interesting. Quite a spread in the models. Hopefully someone in the Northeast cashes in on this one. Tight SE to NW gradient.

post-1592-0-32038300-1323118072.gif

That qpf distribution looks eerily familiar. It seems like most of the storm tracks over the last year have been just far enough southeast to hammer the berks and fringe ALB. we need that shortwave to amp up a little more over the next couple runs and then we have a chance up here.

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winds have shifted NNW in ottawa the past couple hours and temps are slowly falling back now, still well above freezing though in the low 40s.

looks like cold air lurks up the ottawa valley, pembroke now with a dewpoint of 28.

changeover time is modeled to be around midnight. noticed that the models 'hang' the precip back more and more, so could be a 'light' accumulation possible.

here in MTL, we've got a long wait to get to freezing sometime tomorrow as we sit around 50 right now, maybe some slush in the city tomorrow.

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winds have shifted NNW in ottawa the past couple hours and temps are slowly falling back now, still well above freezing though in the low 40s.

looks like cold air lurks up the ottawa valley, pembroke now with a dewpoint of 28.

changeover time is modeled to be around midnight. noticed that the models 'hang' the precip back more and more, so could be a 'light' accumulation possible.

here in MTL, we've got a long wait to get to freezing sometime tomorrow as we sit around 50 right now, maybe some slush in the city tomorrow.

Do you see a changeover happening in Toronto. I'm on the northern fringes of the city around the border with markham. Some models are calling for an inch or two.

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Hope you guys get some snow from this wave of low pressure. It looks like about three disturbances ripple along the boundary this week and there are 'haves' and 'have nots' really just based on luck as to who sits in the right spot for an anafrrontal wave to produce snow... My chance is Wednesday night/Thur AM, but New England is looking best for that.

I may go out to Hamilton on Thursday/Friday if I'm not snowed in (extreme wishful thinking there LOL)...... I'm tracing a couple people (for an estate proceeding) who lived in Brantford and Hamilton for many years... Then I have some work in ROC so I could combine it. Hope for some LES somewhere along the way maybe....

Do you see a changeover happening in Toronto. I'm on the northern fringes of the city around the border with markham. Some models are calling for an inch or two.

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LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE FIRST HALF

OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EARLY

WINTER SEASON IMPACTS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE CORE OF THE

COLDEST AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TO

MID TEENS CELSIUS SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY INTO EARLY

SATURDAY...ATTACHED TO A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE

SOUTH SIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE

MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY EASILY SUPPORTS BANDS OF LAKE

EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM

RANGE MODELS FOCUSING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ON WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW

AREAS...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.

:thumbsup:

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LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE FIRST HALF

OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EARLY

WINTER SEASON IMPACTS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE CORE OF THE

COLDEST AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TO

MID TEENS CELSIUS SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY INTO EARLY

SATURDAY...ATTACHED TO A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE

SOUTH SIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE

MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY EASILY SUPPORTS BANDS OF LAKE

EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM

RANGE MODELS FOCUSING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ON WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW

AREAS...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.

:thumbsup:

LAKE IS 47F :snowing: :snowing: :snowing:

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I can think of two huge snowstorms where there was a cut-off that sharp -> leaving ALB with little or nothing. February 1983 and January 1996. From under 1" to a foot in about 40 miles.... Not even comparing this puny event to those classics ....just saying I have seen that kind of thing happen.

Talk about a teaser.. it will be nice to watch PSF get dumped on again while we see a few flurries :lol:

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AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MAXES...WITH

LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 30S ELSEWHERE.

WED NT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WED NT...AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS

BRING FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY NE TOWARD MID ATLANTIC

COAST...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND NORTHERN EXTENT

OF PRECIP SHIELD. THE 12Z/ECMWF AND NAM ARE AMONG THE N/W ENVELOPE

OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE FURTHER

S/E. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/GEFS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N/W IN THE

MEAN...WITH SEVERAL MORE MEMBERS INDICATING A MORE VIGOROUS...AND

NORTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW. SHOULD SOME OF THESE MEMBERS PROVE

CORRECT...A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL COULD EASILY OCCUR ACROSS S/E

PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON

VALLEY...NW CT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...WITH SOME

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO OCCUR EVEN FURTHER N/W. THE

18Z/NAM HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER N/W THAN ITS 12Z RUN. BASED ON

THESE TRENDS...HAVE INDICATED CHC FOR SNOW LATE WED NT INTO EARLY

THU FOR AT LEAST S/E PORTIONS OF REGION...SINCE SIGNIFICANT

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE THE

LEAST BIT SURPRISED IF THIS STORM TRACKS MUCH FURTHER N/W THAN

CURRENTLY INDICATED...AND MAJOR CHANGES TO FUTURE FORECASTS ARE

POSSIBLE.

Guess the NWS is scratching their heads too.

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