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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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The 12z NAM has quite the synoptic storm (with some back-end LES as well) for WNY. I'd take it...

I would take the 12z NAM in a second. Has a good amount of synoptic snow falling in a 6 hour period with nice lake enhancement prob boosting that even more on a SW flow NE of the lake. Verbatim this run is prob a solid 6". Don't know how much I buy it though.
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I would take the 12z NAM in a second. Has a good amount of synoptic snow falling in a 6 hour period with nice lake enhancement prob boosting that even more on a SW flow NE of the lake. Verbatim this run is prob a solid 6". Don't know how much I buy it though.

The NAM has been pretty consistent with developing that 2nd LP over the last couple of runs. Let's see if the other models catch on...

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The NAM has been pretty consistent with developing that 2nd LP over the last couple of runs. Let's see if the other models catch on...

CMC looks nice too. Deformation right over WNY... Its NAM and CMC vs Euro and GFS. NAM and CMC would be 4-8" , GFS and Euro would be 2-4". To make a fair forecast at this point I'd go with 3-6". If there is any lake enhancement while were under the deformation zone it would likley be to the NE of the lake which would include BUF. That's the only thing I can see that would turn this into a more major event than a minor/moderate event, which is all it looks to be at this point. I think we'll see the NWS issue a Winter Storm Watch around their 345pm update but they may wait untill tonights 18z and 00z runs so they can get a better feel if the models are coming to one solutiuon. In any case it will prob just be turned to an advisory event unless something changes in the models that could make this a warning event.
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I'm traveling through upstate NY on the way to Montreal next Thurs and am nervous about the cold that is being projected on the models. When you see 850mb temps below -20 and even an area of -30 in Northern Ontario, it makes me nervous. I assume surface temps later next week will be well below 0.

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Nice... Being north of the lakes makes it so much easier for pure arctic air to get Ottawa. We get modified by the lakes to some extent and lots of LES cloud debris wreck havoc with our chances for super cold nights. Not to say we don't get pretty cold, but a lot more has to fall into place.

The best way to get super cold here in ENY is for a northerly flow down from Quebec to set up. That's how we get our furthest below zero wx usually.

As of 10:30 it is 6F... might get a little sub zero later.

Down to -15f.....vodka cold out.

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Nice... Being north of the lakes makes it so much easier for pure arctic air to get Ottawa. We get modified by the lakes to some extent and lots of LES cloud debris wreck havoc with our chances for super cold nights. Not to say we don't get pretty cold, but a lot more has to fall into place.

The best way to get super cold here in ENY is for a northerly flow down from Quebec to set up. That's how we get our furthest below zero wx usually.

As of 10:30 it is 6F... might get a little sub zero later.

Toronto rarely gets pure arctic air either, although it can happen if we get a northeasterly wind - that's the only wind that doesn't have to cross a lake before reaching us. -15C currently here.

It's looking like this upcoming week may be one of our only truly wintery weeks of the season. Blowtorch predicted for the week after. This is just awful.

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Toronto rarely gets pure arctic air either, although it can happen if we get a northeasterly wind - that's the only wind that doesn't have to cross a lake before reaching us. -15C currently here.

It's looking like this upcoming week may be one of our only truly wintery weeks of the season. Blowtorch predicted for the week after. This is just awful.

ottawa has been blitzed the last 3.5 weeks

time to pack your bags :lol:

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If it was me and I ever had to work in Toronto, I'd suffer the commute and live around Barrie maybe... Just not a lot going for YYZ in the snow department...wrong side of a lake, too far west for Nor'easters, too far south it seems for the inland events that plaster Ottawa.

Of course maybe this is why the settlers built a city there...odd people liked the fact that it was a more temperate climate.

ottawa has been blitzed the last 3.5 weeks

time to pack your bags :lol:

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I hate the cold love the snow. Buffalo is a perfect place for a little of both. I love hot/sunny summers more then anything. This in turn heats up Lake Erie to get pelted by Huge LES snowstorms in the winter. Is the best of both worlds. I go to the beach as much as I can all summer (especially when lake erie gets above 70-75 degrees, even got up to 80 last summer I believe) , Buffalo is a beautiful place to live aside from the lack of jobs... :whistle:

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random historical footnote...Lake Erie beat Lake Ontario in 2004-2005.

http://www.erh.noaa....snowseason.html

Wow Niagara county only averages 60 inches of snow per year. Does this map include average snowfall totals for the last 100+ years or has it been updated to reflect the last 30 year mark, since I believe that is what Mets use to judge certain meteorlogical "patterns"?

Because I believe Kbufs average is all over the place over the last 100 years because they moved the location from on the lake in 1940s I believe to the airport which receives quite a bit more then right on the actual lake? Also over the last 30 years Buffalo has averaged over 100 inches per year I believe, but the average shows 97 I believe? (All these things are guesses, have not really researched this)

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that map is a bit old..I think this one is better. BUF's "normal" is 95" as of the new 1981-2010 climatology. 97" was from the 1971-2000 period. It was 93" in the 1961-1990 period.

The normal is not the average...it's a pretty complicated statistical method that the NCDC uses.

Wow, I did not know that, thanks! What website did you get that map from? The 2 inch decline was probably due to the inflated years of 77-79 period. ^^

I live right on the 100 inch per year average. Can't believe places on the tug average 100+ inches more then the Chat. Ridge crazy! Thats why they call it the snowiest place east of the rockies...

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Wow, I did not know that, thanks! What website did you get that map from? The 2 inch decline was probably due to the inflated years of 77-79 period. ^^

I live right on the 100 inch per year average. Can't believe places on the tug average 100+ inches more then the Chat. Ridge crazy! Thats why they call it the snowiest place east of the rockies...

yeah we lost the 70s in the new climo period. There was some real stinkers in the 1980s...we averaged about 60" for three straight years in the late 1980s. I actually did a rough average between 1981 and 2010 got about 96" so the new normal is pretty close to the actual average. We averaged similar though in the 1970s as we did in the 2000s...both periods were somewhere between 105 and 110".

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Hoping we can get more high pressure to hold in north of us for the distant day 6-7 event. Last weeks event evolved good for us in the last 4-5 days of modeling here in ENY....

Nippy morning here.. -5F/-10F or -20.6C/-23.5C

well...there's that lake-enhancement/clipper event that was mentioned yesterday around 108-120 hours on the euro and then there is a rain/ice/snow storm around 156 hours. Looks like everyone would start off as snow...then heavy snow for Toronto to Montreal. Should be interesting to see how that evolves.

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