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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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0z gfs looks **** wow,it doesnt bring the cold air till 0z Saturday.. :lmao:

Not to mention the winds are already veering no later then 12z Friday and all the good Synoptic moisture stays east of BUF over CNY...

If I had to go with the NAM or GFS at this point i'd go with the GFS. Nam at 60 hours out isn't very reliable where as the GFS is.

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Not to mention the winds are already veering no later then 12z Friday and all the good Synoptic moisture stays east of BUF over CNY...

If I had to go with the NAM or GFS at this point i'd go with the GFS. Nam at 60 hours out isn't very reliable where as the GFS is.

great, now i have to stay up for the euro. :weenie:

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just some lake enhancement north of BUF shifting south as Friday wears on... right?

yeah i can see that. It's really interesting what is going on. The gfs goes nuts with the upper level low. It does what I believe is an "instant occlusion" which is pretty rare over land but more common over water. The main low-level baroclinic zone is located pretty far east/southeast, but the low develops within the cold air because the upper level low has overwhelming dynamics. Gives CNY that impressive small scale snowstorm.

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yeah i can see that. It's really interesting what is going on. The gfs goes nuts with the upper level low. It does what I believe is an "instant occlusion" which is pretty rare over land but more common over water. The main low-level baroclinic zone is located pretty far east/southeast, but the low develops within the cold air because the upper level low has overwhelming dynamics. Gives CNY that impressive small scale snowstorm.

Do you buy the 00z GFS?
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Alright. Thanks Nick. Update us on your thoughts once the Euro comes in and u compare it with the nam/gfs.

euro looks like 1-3" of synoptic snow followed by weak lake-effect/enhancement. Euro is a bit weaker with the upper level low so the synoptic snows blow up a bit further north...gives watertown about 6".

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euro looks like 1-3" of synoptic snow followed by weak lake-effect/enhancement. Euro is a bit weaker with the upper level low is a bit weaker so the synoptic snows blow up a bit further north...gives watertown about 6".

thanks for the update..

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Anyone who gets snow just has to be grateful. This year getting an inch is like a foot in the past. Just to have white covering my barren brown fields (albeit a mixed mess) is an improvement.

euro looks like 1-3" of synoptic snow followed by weak lake-effect/enhancement. Euro is a bit weaker with the upper level low so the synoptic snows blow up a bit further north...gives watertown about 6".

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Anticipation is the best part if it lives up to the hype of the anticipation... If it was Christmas and you were expecting a brand new Corvette for Christmas only to find a 1982 station wagon with wooden siding and all in your driveway would you be very happy?

"Anticipation is the best part if it lives up to the hype of the anticipation" I don't agree, but to each his own. If you read some psychology books you will understand. I took a few classes about this in college. It is a proven fact that the brain exhibits more "excitement" during anticipation then when the event occurs. Several MRIs and CT Scans were conducted to show brain activity duriing this in several studies.

http://psychology.wikia.com/wiki/Anticipation

http://www.pcp-net.o...ticipation.html

http://positivepsych...hen/20070613286

However, this is not a psychology forum, so I will end it there.

In other news the NAM looks to good to be true, the GFS looks just plain bad. The CMC and Euro look okay for a few inches of snow. At least we have some anticipating to do! :popcorn: =P

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