lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 WOW 0Z NAM GIVES BUF A FOOT OF SNOW!! :snowing: Dont get you hopes up too high yet dude. It'll suck to wake up tomorrow morning only to see the NAM completly diffferent than this 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Definitly don't look at the 00z GFS if you want lake effect in BUF... Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Dont get you hopes up too high yet dude. It'll suck to wake up tomorrow morning only to see the NAM completly diffferent than this 00z run. 0z gfs looks **** wow,it doesnt bring the cold air till 0z Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Definitly don't look at the 00z GFS if you want lake effect in BUF... Ouch! If that's all snow being shown on the 0z gfs then congrats CNY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z gfs looks **** wow,it doesnt bring the cold air till 0z Saturday.. Not to mention the winds are already veering no later then 12z Friday and all the good Synoptic moisture stays east of BUF over CNY...If I had to go with the NAM or GFS at this point i'd go with the GFS. Nam at 60 hours out isn't very reliable where as the GFS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not to mention the winds are already veering no later then 12z Friday and all the good Synoptic moisture stays east of BUF over CNY... If I had to go with the NAM or GFS at this point i'd go with the GFS. Nam at 60 hours out isn't very reliable where as the GFS is. great, now i have to stay up for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 great, now i have to stay up for the euro. Ahhh me too!!! ERGGG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ahhh me too!!! ERGGG! btw the bufkit showed the foot of snow till 12z Saturday,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This shows about 4-8" verbatim... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KBUF&model=nam&time=2012011100&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This shows about 4-8" verbatim... http://coolwx.com/cg...1100&field=prec you’re right Devin,the zone-omega on the bufkit was overdoing the snowfall totals haha,it only shows about 6″ with 10:1 ratio.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 you’re right Devin,the zone-omega on the bufkit was overdoing the snowfall totals haha,it only shows about 6″ with 10:1 ratio.. Not that we wouldnt be happy with 6" right Ayuud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not that we wouldnt be happy with 6" right Ayuud? yeh 6" synoptic and god knows how much of that LES we going to get.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 yeh 6" synoptic and god knows how much of that LES we going to get.. I think 6" total for BUF if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think 6" total for BUF if we are lucky. weenie side thinks a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 weenie side thinks a foot i have a bad feeling about this one. usually when its nam vs gfs, gfs wins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i have a bad feeling about this one. usually when its nam vs gfs, gfs wins... like always,it's going to be a close call haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The NAM is definitely more of a synoptic snowstorm than it is a les snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The NAM is definitely more of a synoptic snowstorm than it is a les snowstorm. just some lake enhancement north of BUF shifting south as Friday wears on... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 just some lake enhancement north of BUF shifting south as Friday wears on... right? yeah i can see that. It's really interesting what is going on. The gfs goes nuts with the upper level low. It does what I believe is an "instant occlusion" which is pretty rare over land but more common over water. The main low-level baroclinic zone is located pretty far east/southeast, but the low develops within the cold air because the upper level low has overwhelming dynamics. Gives CNY that impressive small scale snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 yeah i can see that. It's really interesting what is going on. The gfs goes nuts with the upper level low. It does what I believe is an "instant occlusion" which is pretty rare over land but more common over water. The main low-level baroclinic zone is located pretty far east/southeast, but the low develops within the cold air because the upper level low has overwhelming dynamics. Gives CNY that impressive small scale snowstorm. Do you buy the 00z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Do you buy the 00z GFS? i'd like to see what the euro does to assess how likely the gfs solution is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i'd like to see what the euro does to assess how likely the gfs solution is. Alright. Thanks Nick. Update us on your thoughts once the Euro comes in and u compare it with the nam/gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Alright. Thanks Nick. Update us on your thoughts once the Euro comes in and u compare it with the nam/gfs. euro looks like 1-3" of synoptic snow followed by weak lake-effect/enhancement. Euro is a bit weaker with the upper level low so the synoptic snows blow up a bit further north...gives watertown about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 euro looks like 1-3" of synoptic snow followed by weak lake-effect/enhancement. Euro is a bit weaker with the upper level low is a bit weaker so the synoptic snows blow up a bit further north...gives watertown about 6". thanks for the update.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Anyone who gets snow just has to be grateful. This year getting an inch is like a foot in the past. Just to have white covering my barren brown fields (albeit a mixed mess) is an improvement. euro looks like 1-3" of synoptic snow followed by weak lake-effect/enhancement. Euro is a bit weaker with the upper level low so the synoptic snows blow up a bit further north...gives watertown about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Anticipation is the best part if it lives up to the hype of the anticipation... If it was Christmas and you were expecting a brand new Corvette for Christmas only to find a 1982 station wagon with wooden siding and all in your driveway would you be very happy? "Anticipation is the best part if it lives up to the hype of the anticipation" I don't agree, but to each his own. If you read some psychology books you will understand. I took a few classes about this in college. It is a proven fact that the brain exhibits more "excitement" during anticipation then when the event occurs. Several MRIs and CT Scans were conducted to show brain activity duriing this in several studies. http://psychology.wikia.com/wiki/Anticipation http://www.pcp-net.o...ticipation.html http://positivepsych...hen/20070613286 However, this is not a psychology forum, so I will end it there. In other news the NAM looks to good to be true, the GFS looks just plain bad. The CMC and Euro look okay for a few inches of snow. At least we have some anticipating to do! =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The three Buffalo guys need to get a room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 6z models are ****,back to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The NAM snow graphics are a dream for the 'Dacks, I would be happy with 2-4 inches let alone 6-10. We saw this with the Dec 28th storm only to get a half inch of rain at Gore and Whiteface The message is don't fight this winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 12z NAM has quite the synoptic storm (with some back-end LES as well) for WNY. I'd take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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