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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Euro still consistent with the colder event, 850s never get above 0 here..The euro also looks real nice for the fri morning event, 3-4" falls in just 3 hrs into parts of cny..

Surface temperatures to warm, will be a cold rain until the secondary cold front goes through. The last 2 synoptic storms should 850s way below this area, yet was very cold rain. We need an arctic high to the north but with this MJO pattern, not gonna happen.

Devin, you are hilarious! :lmao:

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Snow Map.

The band will first set up north of BUF and its immediate N and E suburbs than drift slowly southward over Friday afternoon but die as it crosses BUF and its suburbs only to regenerate into a nice band once it gets to about Hamburg... Sound fimilar? lol

:sizzle:

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How does this sound? lol... Sounds deadly.

AKZ125-110500-

/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120111T0600Z/

WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...

MOOSE PASS

649 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS

EVENING NORTH OF MOOSE PASS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS

EVENING.

* LOCATION...NORTH OF MOOSE PASS INCLUDING TURNAGAIN PASS...

PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM.

* SNOW...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 16 TO 28 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING. SNOW DRIFTS 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...30 TO 45 WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY.

GUSTING

TO 65 TO 80 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON

BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW

WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING WILL

BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. INCREASED AVALANCHE DANGER.

http://www.msnbc.msn...r/#.Tws5_vkvDEY

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Surface temperatures to warm, will be a cold rain until the secondary cold front goes through. The last 2 synoptic storms should 850s way below this area, yet was very cold rain. We need an arctic high to the north but with this MJO pattern, not gonna happen.

Devin, you are hilarious! :lmao:

May look funny to you but I can bet that's whats going to happen. I actually bet my map won't be far off at all.
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:cry: And all I want is to at least not have to stare at brown ground all winter.

I've been up through Turnagain Arm and the Chugach Mts in winter... breathtaking. :snowing:

How does this sound? lol... Sounds deadly.

AKZ125-110500-

/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120111T0600Z/

WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...

MOOSE PASS

649 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS

EVENING NORTH OF MOOSE PASS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS

EVENING.

* LOCATION...NORTH OF MOOSE PASS INCLUDING TURNAGAIN PASS...

PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM.

* SNOW...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 16 TO 28 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING. SNOW DRIFTS 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...30 TO 45 WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY.

GUSTING

TO 65 TO 80 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON

BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW

WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING WILL

BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. INCREASED AVALANCHE DANGER.

http://www.msnbc.msn...r/#.Tws5_vkvDEY

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Anyone paying attention to what some of the models have been doing for Friday in the CD/Hudson Valley? Secondary low sets off some light/mod snow beginning down in PA and moving up through the region. I think it was on the 0z GFS...then both the 12z GFS and NAM had it. Not sure if the Euro has it (have been tending to a newborn, so haven't had much chance to check the international models on my computer). Anyway...could be a nice 2-4" event in the making?

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BUF more optimistic for metro area in this afternoon's discussion. I think all of us would take a low end advisory event at this point if this pans out.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND THE

ASSOCIATED INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA

BEHIND THE SHARP FRONTAL ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HARD TO

IGNORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAVORABLE DOMINANT SURFACE LOW TRACK

NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO

DEVELOP INTO THE AREA IN A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. LAKE

EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING QUITE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL

FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS IN FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS

FRIDAY...IMPACTING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.

THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO VEER TO WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT FORCING THE

LAKE SNOWS SOUTHWARD. LAKE PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE PRIMED AT THIS TIME

PERIOD WHICH SHOULD BRING THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DURING THIS TIME

FRAME.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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BUF more optimistic for metro area in this afternoon's discussion. I think all of us would take a low end advisory event at this point if this pans out.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND THE

ASSOCIATED INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA

BEHIND THE SHARP FRONTAL ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HARD TO

IGNORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAVORABLE DOMINANT SURFACE LOW TRACK

NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO

DEVELOP INTO THE AREA IN A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. LAKE

EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING QUITE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL

FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS IN FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS

FRIDAY...IMPACTING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.

THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO VEER TO WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT FORCING THE

LAKE SNOWS SOUTHWARD. LAKE PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE PRIMED AT THIS TIME

PERIOD WHICH SHOULD BRING THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DURING THIS TIME

FRAME.

-- End Changed Discussion --

BOOM DEVIN!

:whistle:

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NAM even colder

IMO I think the NAM is TOO COLD on the front side of the storm

Anyone paying attention to what some of the models have been doing for Friday in the CD/Hudson Valley? Secondary low sets off some light/mod snow beginning down in PA and moving up through the region. I think it was on the 0z GFS...then both the 12z GFS and NAM had it. Not sure if the Euro has it (have been tending to a newborn, so haven't had much chance to check the international models on my computer). Anyway...could be a nice 2-4" event in the making?

EC has had it on and off for a while now..even showed signs LAST week on its LR charts. Could be a convective type event with the upper air low/vort and arctic air all coming together in time and place..interesting for sure.

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Updated nws forecast

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 25. Breezy, with a east wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 2pm, then a chance of rain between 2pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet after 4pm. High near 36. East wind between 9 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow and sleet before 11pm, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. East wind 6 to 11 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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Latest NAM is a beautiful thing for WNY... Several inches of synoptic snow and a 12-24 hour window of W/SW flow of LES following that synoptic snow. Hopefully it pans out, but this is the first model to bring synoptic snow into the equation.

nama.png

I agree IF this run of the NAM were to verify we would be in a beautiful winter wonderland here in BUF, and would start making up our deficit for the year very nicely. Not saying that I agree or buy this run but I'm starting to jump on board a little bit that this event may be the biggest event for the BUF metro area so far this winter (not thats much at all). I really wanna see what the 00z GFS and EURO have to say , and if they show similar set ups to the NAM I want to see what the models are showing tomorrow night. But as of now I'm getting a bit more optimistic. Still not excited though.
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I agree IF this run of the NAM were to verify we would be in a beautiful winter wonderland here in BUF, and would start making up our deficit for the year very nicely. Not saying that I agree or buy this run but I'm starting to jump on board a little bit that this event may be the biggest event for the BUF metro area so far this winter (not thats much at all). I really wanna see what the 00z GFS and EURO have to say , and if they show similar set ups to the NAM I want to see what the models are showing tomorrow night. But as of now I'm getting a bit more optimistic. Still not excited though.

But thats the best part Devin! Getting excited early, like I said antipication is the most exciting part. I can tell your being more optimistic, I see you have asked Don like 10 questions about the latest NAM haha! Even if we get nothing the anticipation has been fun and exilirating to actually have something to track and monitor on the models. The last 2 weeks have been completely boring with nothing to track! I just bought my wife new skis, so either way Sunday I will be boarding, hopefully on lots of fresh powder!

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But thats the best part Devin! Getting excited early, like I said antipication is the most exciting part. I can tell your being more optimistic, I see you have asked Don like 10 questions about the latest NAM haha! Even if we get nothing the anticipation has been fun and exilirating to actually have something to track and monitor on the models. The last 2 weeks have been completely boring with nothing to track! I just bought my wife new skis, so either way Sunday I will be boarding, hopefully on lots of fresh powder!

Anticipation is the best part if it lives up to the hype of the anticipation... If it was Christmas and you were expecting a brand new Corvette for Christmas only to find a 1982 station wagon with wooden siding and all in your driveway would you be very happy?
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