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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Syracuse FD:

OVER THE WEEKEND...AND RIGHT INTO MON...A SERIES OF NRN STREAM

WAVES/WEAK CLIPPERS...PLUS LAKE-ENHANCEMENT...SHOULD BRING AT

LEAST PERIODIC SHSN/FLRYS. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...A QUICKLY

TRANSITIONING FLOW PATN (FQNT TROUGH/FRNTL PASSAGES) MAY WELL

PRECLUDE SIG LES OVER ANY ONE AREA...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

Cleveland FD:

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH

SOME LAKE EFFECT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORE FROM ABOUT

MENTOR AND FARTHER NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 15-20F

WITH A STIFF WEST/SW WIND.

Buffalo FD:

THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT

ARCTIC INTRUSION RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES

AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ESPECIALLY IN

THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE EXACT FLOW REGIMES OFF

THE LAKES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECMWF

SUGGESTING A SHORT LIVED SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A

MORE PROLONGED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT... WHILE THE GEM

SUGGESTS A MORE PROLONGED SOUTHWEST/WEST EVENT. THOUGH THERE

REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO

INCREASE PROBABILITIES TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES.

Hour 84 looks like it shows some dry air working its way into the LES. Hopefully that doesn't prevent a well aligned WSW flow if it comes to fruitioN!

Just so you know there is no Syracuse NWS, I think you meant Binghamton...
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Latest NAM is following the GFS in having winds even go SSW!! ARGH!! At least the band will drift through the city! It also shows several inches of snyoptic snow on Thursday night-Friday Morning. What do the mets have to say in regards to this potential? Seems like models have been all over the place from predominantly NW winds to now SSW! WOW! :popcorn:

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Latest NAM is following the GFS in having winds even go SSW!! ARGH!! At least the band will drift through the city! It also shows several inches of snyoptic snow on Thursday night-Friday Morning. What do the mets have to say in regards to this potential? Seems like models have been all over the place from predominantly NW winds to now SSW! WOW! :popcorn:

IF there is a band. Nothing about this event really has me excited... Looking similar to the December 9th-10th event.
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Latest NAM is following the GFS in having winds even go SSW!! ARGH!! At least the band will drift through the city! It also shows several inches of snyoptic snow on Thursday night-Friday Morning. What do the mets have to say in regards to this potential? Seems like models have been all over the place from predominantly NW winds to now SSW! WOW! :popcorn:

Niagara Falls special! Who knows this far out, but it's nice to see the troffing hanging back to our west on most models after the cold front passes.

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The atmospheric environment is completely different than that event... However I will take the 4-5 inches of heavy snow I got in 2-3 hours! =)

I agree I just dont have a good gut feeling about this one. We'll see how that changes as we get closer and models start to converge on one soultion, if thats possible. And don't count on 4-5" in 2 or 3 hours again but who knows lol.
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Pretty sure I figured out why lake effect in W/CNY has been so meager this year. It's not the +AO, +NAO, or any other global indice with a catchy acronymn. Nope, it's the "cow breed" names being used by BUF NWS to name lake effect events this winter. Lake Erie doesn't want to produce a 2-3 foot snowbomb across Erie County, only to be called "Lake Effect Event Heifer". Likewise, Lake Ontario is mortified at the prospect of dropping a 3-5 foot hammer on Oswego County, only to be tagged as "Lake Effect Event Polish Red" (dairy/beef - look it up...). Thanks a lot BUF.....

post-1195-0-76462600-1326166181.jpg

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Pretty sure I figured out why lake effect in W/CNY has been so meager this year. It's not the +AO, +NAO, or any other global indice with a catchy acronymn. Nope, it's the "cow breed" names being used by BUF NWS to name lake effect events this winter. Lake Erie doesn't want to produce a 2-3 foot snowbomb across Erie County, only to be called "Lake Effect Event Heifer". Likewise, Lake Ontario is mortified at the prospect of dropping a 3-5 foot hammer on Oswego County, only to be tagged as "Lake Effect Event Polish Red" (dairy/beef - look it up...). Thanks a lot BUF.....

Haha the 2nd event of the season was named Beffalo.lmfao.
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Oh well. Glad I didn't get excited for this event. Just had the feeling it wasn't gonna be a big one. I'm sure the Euro will show a more S wind too. Buffalo will get shafted again. 6 inches for NF 1/2" for BUF and 12 in JHW. The 2011-2012 winter trend continues =] haha

blame ME! :snowing:

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LES chances are looking up.............Friday into Saturday Temps will be below normal with enough arctic air for a shot at some decent snowfall amounts...........I'm Hoping the flow transitions into something the Tug can use......But as we saw in the last event it takes a lot more than good flow and cold temps.......The Only good news is with the current SSW going on after mid month we should see some polar air drop out of Canada with some staying power....

I've posted my top ten list for the Northeast for 2011.

http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/#!/2012/01/top-ten-weather-events-in-northeast-for.html

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I was bored tonight and decided to post pictures of pivotal points in the models.

GFS:

gfsn.png

NAM:

namo.png

EURO (12z)

eurom.png

CMC:

cmcn.png

General consensus seems like the low breaks off into a cutoff low around Michigan and stalls for a day or moves rather slowly to the northeast. The proximity of the secondary cut off low which forms is concerning as it can cause shear, however the moisture should be readily available with a nice cyclonic flow. Also the time in which enough instability is generated keeps getting pushed back further and further in the models. Those are the two things im concerned with at this point. Again, these are just pretty pictures, I am sure one of the Mets can chime in on more detailed explanations. Staying up to watch the Euro tonight!

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I think it looks pretty damn good...I'm shaking my head at some of the post around here today...you would have thought everything trended to **** lol

This winter season has caused Devin to go from being a optimist to a pessimist. Hey Devin didn't you post not to long ago about C from P being such a pessimist?!?! You hypocrite! =P

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Looks pretty good for synoptic snow though in CNY and ENY with the Thursday system. Euro fantasy snowfall maps have 7 inches here.

Nick might have a different opinion on the LES ..let the expert weigh in before giving up. ;)

nope the euro is ****ing awful. what an abrupt change.

hopefully it's just a random waver....but that run wouldn't even be that great for the normal snow belts.

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