lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Its only snow, I get more excited for tracking it then anything. Im never disappointed like you and ayuud get. You guys take this far to serious lol. You always get more snow then ayuud and i... And i dont see how we take it any more serious then you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Syracuse FD: OVER THE WEEKEND...AND RIGHT INTO MON...A SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES/WEAK CLIPPERS...PLUS LAKE-ENHANCEMENT...SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODIC SHSN/FLRYS. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...A QUICKLY TRANSITIONING FLOW PATN (FQNT TROUGH/FRNTL PASSAGES) MAY WELL PRECLUDE SIG LES OVER ANY ONE AREA...BUT TIME WILL TELL. Cleveland FD: MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORE FROM ABOUT MENTOR AND FARTHER NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 15-20F WITH A STIFF WEST/SW WIND. Buffalo FD: THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSION RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE EXACT FLOW REGIMES OFF THE LAKES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A SHORT LIVED SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A MORE PROLONGED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT... WHILE THE GEM SUGGESTS A MORE PROLONGED SOUTHWEST/WEST EVENT. THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES. Hour 84 looks like it shows some dry air working its way into the LES. Hopefully that doesn't prevent a well aligned WSW flow if it comes to fruitioN! Just so you know there is no Syracuse NWS, I think you meant Binghamton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just so you know there is no Syracuse NWS, I think you meant Binghamton... Opps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Models are all over the place but trending colder. Should be an interesting 0Z suite. Confluence to north might lock in enough cold air for some accumulating snow somewhere in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Flow looks too southerly on the 18z gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Flow looks too southerly on the 18z gfs.. Either too northerly or too southerly here in lake eries armpitt. might as well move to midland texas. They have triple the amount of snow buffalos seen this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Im taking a shot at OSU. Remember during first week of December I said Buffalo will receive less then 4 inches for the whole month? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/buf_snow00s.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Latest NAM is following the GFS in having winds even go SSW!! ARGH!! At least the band will drift through the city! It also shows several inches of snyoptic snow on Thursday night-Friday Morning. What do the mets have to say in regards to this potential? Seems like models have been all over the place from predominantly NW winds to now SSW! WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Latest NAM is following the GFS in having winds even go SSW!! ARGH!! At least the band will drift through the city! It also shows several inches of snyoptic snow on Thursday night-Friday Morning. What do the mets have to say in regards to this potential? Seems like models have been all over the place from predominantly NW winds to now SSW! WOW! IF there is a band. Nothing about this event really has me excited... Looking similar to the December 9th-10th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 IF there is a band. Nothing about this event really has me excited... Looking similar to the December 9th-10th event. The atmospheric environment is completely different than that event... However I will take the 4-5 inches of heavy snow I got in 2-3 hours! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Latest NAM is following the GFS in having winds even go SSW!! ARGH!! At least the band will drift through the city! It also shows several inches of snyoptic snow on Thursday night-Friday Morning. What do the mets have to say in regards to this potential? Seems like models have been all over the place from predominantly NW winds to now SSW! WOW! Niagara Falls special! Who knows this far out, but it's nice to see the troffing hanging back to our west on most models after the cold front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The atmospheric environment is completely different than that event... However I will take the 4-5 inches of heavy snow I got in 2-3 hours! =) I agree I just dont have a good gut feeling about this one. We'll see how that changes as we get closer and models start to converge on one soultion, if thats possible. And don't count on 4-5" in 2 or 3 hours again but who knows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Pretty sure I figured out why lake effect in W/CNY has been so meager this year. It's not the +AO, +NAO, or any other global indice with a catchy acronymn. Nope, it's the "cow breed" names being used by BUF NWS to name lake effect events this winter. Lake Erie doesn't want to produce a 2-3 foot snowbomb across Erie County, only to be called "Lake Effect Event Heifer". Likewise, Lake Ontario is mortified at the prospect of dropping a 3-5 foot hammer on Oswego County, only to be tagged as "Lake Effect Event Polish Red" (dairy/beef - look it up...). Thanks a lot BUF..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Pretty sure I figured out why lake effect in W/CNY has been so meager this year. It's not the +AO, +NAO, or any other global indice with a catchy acronymn. Nope, it's the "cow breed" names being used by BUF NWS to name lake effect events this winter. Lake Erie doesn't want to produce a 2-3 foot snowbomb across Erie County, only to be called "Lake Effect Event Heifer". Likewise, Lake Ontario is mortified at the prospect of dropping a 3-5 foot hammer on Oswego County, only to be tagged as "Lake Effect Event Polish Red" (dairy/beef - look it up...). Thanks a lot BUF..... Haha the 2nd event of the season was named Beffalo.lmfao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Haha the 2nd event of the season was named Beffalo.lmfao. WDF HAHA!@ :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 wow 0z gfs is too southerly with that flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 wow 0z gfs is too southerly with that flow.. Oh well. Glad I didn't get excited for this event. Just had the feeling it wasn't gonna be a big one. I'm sure the Euro will show a more S wind too. Buffalo will get shafted again. 6 inches for NF 1/2" for BUF and 12 in JHW. The 2011-2012 winter trend continues =] haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Oh well. Glad I didn't get excited for this event. Just had the feeling it wasn't gonna be a big one. I'm sure the Euro will show a more S wind too. Buffalo will get shafted again. 6 inches for NF 1/2" for BUF and 12 in JHW. The 2011-2012 winter trend continues =] haha blame ME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 blame ME! You and the nws for their choice on names for the lake storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Im taking a shot at OSU. Remember during first week of December I said Buffalo will receive less then 4 inches for the whole month? http://www.erh.noaa....buf_snow00s.php good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Oh well. Glad I didn't get excited for this event. Just had the feeling it wasn't gonna be a big one. I'm sure the Euro will show a more S wind too. Buffalo will get shafted again. 6 inches for NF 1/2" for BUF and 12 in JHW. The 2011-2012 winter trend continues =] haha lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol Nick, what are your professional thoughts for this lake effect "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nick, what are your professional thoughts for this lake effect "event". I think it looks pretty damn good...I'm shaking my head at some of the post around here today...you would have thought everything trended to **** lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LES chances are looking up.............Friday into Saturday Temps will be below normal with enough arctic air for a shot at some decent snowfall amounts...........I'm Hoping the flow transitions into something the Tug can use......But as we saw in the last event it takes a lot more than good flow and cold temps.......The Only good news is with the current SSW going on after mid month we should see some polar air drop out of Canada with some staying power.... I've posted my top ten list for the Northeast for 2011. http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/#!/2012/01/top-ten-weather-events-in-northeast-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I was bored tonight and decided to post pictures of pivotal points in the models. GFS: NAM: EURO (12z) CMC: General consensus seems like the low breaks off into a cutoff low around Michigan and stalls for a day or moves rather slowly to the northeast. The proximity of the secondary cut off low which forms is concerning as it can cause shear, however the moisture should be readily available with a nice cyclonic flow. Also the time in which enough instability is generated keeps getting pushed back further and further in the models. Those are the two things im concerned with at this point. Again, these are just pretty pictures, I am sure one of the Mets can chime in on more detailed explanations. Staying up to watch the Euro tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think it looks pretty damn good...I'm shaking my head at some of the post around here today...you would have thought everything trended to **** lol This winter season has caused Devin to go from being a optimist to a pessimist. Hey Devin didn't you post not to long ago about C from P being such a pessimist?!?! You hypocrite! =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 almost never good to bet against the combination of the euro and the euro ensemble mean at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 New runs of Euro= Fail for LES. =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks pretty good for synoptic snow though in CNY and ENY with the Thursday system. Euro fantasy snowfall maps have 7 inches here. Nick might have a different opinion on the LES ..let the expert weigh in before giving up. New runs of Euro= Fail for LES. =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks pretty good for synoptic snow though in CNY and ENY with the Thursday system. Euro fantasy snowfall maps have 7 inches here. Nick might have a different opinion on the LES ..let the expert weigh in before giving up. nope the euro is ****ing awful. what an abrupt change. hopefully it's just a random waver....but that run wouldn't even be that great for the normal snow belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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