DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Whats your take on the LES potential Friday-Sunday this week? The ingredients are certainly there for a lake response. A quick glance at the 12z runs seems to show less and less of a SW component once the cold air is in place. Looks like a traditional snow belt event if any. Plenty cold and windy though, so thats at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 12z Euro is a thing of beauty for Metro Buffalo in terms of LES potential. Lets all hope its consistency remains through the next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 12z Euro is a thing of beauty for Metro Buffalo in terms of LES potential. Lets all hope its consistency remains through the next few days! ensembles look good too imo. 12z euro ensemble mean just came out. Combination of the lake-aggregate trough and the upper level low located to the west induces a surface trough which keeps the surface winds backed compared to what you might expect from the low position north of the NY/Ontario border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 ensembles look good too imo. 12z euro ensemble mean just came out. Combination of the lake-aggregate trough and the upper level low located to the west induces a surface trough which keeps the surface winds backed compared to what you might expect from the low position north of the NY/Ontario border. winds look gusty thursday night into friday,you think that would be a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Is this it? http://1664596.sites...CKUP/backup.htm The main link works fine over here,must be some dns issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 OVC and reasonably winter-like here today. 31F and a few flurries fro time to time..stiff wind. If we get a real pattern change and winter wx is on tap ..I'll probably ditch this very old thread and start a mid winter thread. Hopefully this upcoming pattern change pans out,i'm tired of this ****ty pattern we are in lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 winds look gusty thursday night into friday,you think that would be a factor? looks like about 35 kt at 850mb on the euro at 120 hours...would not be a big problem imo. I get worried with 45-50kt+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Latest GFS is a beautiful thing for Snow/Cold Lovers around the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Latest GFS is a beautiful thing for Snow/Cold Lovers around the great lakes. I'm not buying it,just watch something would come up to screw us over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 looks like about 35 kt at 850mb on the euro at 120 hours...would not be a big problem imo. I get worried with 45-50kt+ 12z gfs was a tad deeper,even nws mentions it on the afd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Any ideas on the MLK holiday period? I know probably more cold rain but at some point it just plain sucks too. I am referring to the GFLs area for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z gfs was a tad deeper,even nws mentions it on the afd.. well i'd honestly go with the ecwmf at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I was in Western NY for the last three days and Fri and Sat were ridiculously mild. What snow they had in the lake belts was quickly olbiterated. I noted that Naples in far southern Ontario County had around four inches remaining from the Lake Erie stuff Thursday night ...long gone now I'm sure. hey you're back! i was wondering where you were....i thought this winter had driven you away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hey you're back! i was wondering where you were....i thought this winter had driven you away lol OL, Ottawa is still having astoundingly different weather from Toronto. In fact, it's one of the few cities in southern Canada currently experiencing winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 East -NAO block that develops around the 12th and 13th should help the flow slow down considerably and not allow the day 4-5 upper level low to scoot out into the Atlantic fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I dont know about you guys, but I have a really good feeling about the LES this weekend! Lets hope the models continue to behave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS is hanging the upper level trough back to the west more like the euro...not quite enough to induce WSW/SW flow yet but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I dont know about you guys, but I have a really good feeling about the LES this weekend! Lets hope the models continue to behave! Not me. Well get the screwjob again somehow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Not me. Well get the screwjob again somehow! This . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=CYUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Newest runs of all the models are all over the place one again. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This . Even if we dont get hit with LES this weekend, the progressive pattern over the next 2 weeks looks much colder and active. Were bound to get some snow and LES with the lake at nearly 40 degrees for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Newest runs of all the models are all over the place one again. WOW! ecwmf trended slightly worse with lake-effect conditions...but still shows a period of excellent WSW/SW flows conditions for BUF...for about 15 hours. The GFS isn't quite there yet but it is now showing about 260 flow with moderate instability on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Michigan FD EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION/ORIENTATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS IS ALSO A BIT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. EXTENT OF LAKE AGGREGATE INDUCED SFC TROUGHING WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN BEHAVIOR OF THE WINDS AND SNOW BANDS. INVERSION HEIGHTS/CONVECTIVE DEPTH SHOULD BE DEEP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE UPR LOW OVERHEAD. THERE APPEARS TO BE GROWING SUPPORT FROM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT CLIPPER DISTURBANCES DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IMPLIES THAT ADDITIONAL...PERHAPS FREQUENT... EPISODES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALLS ARE POSSIBLE. I love the fact of a favorable LES environment for several days, along with shortwaves/clippers reinforcing shots of colder air along with shifting winds. Hopefully everyone will get a taste of a few bands over the next week! Euro is currently running now, lets see what it says! Valdez Alaska is up over 24 feet of snow so far this year, 12 feet above normal. Interesting read http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45923783/ns/weather/#.Tws5_vkvDEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Ecm still gives e/c ny a couple/few inches with the thurs/fri system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro and CMC look great for LES Thursday night-Saturday! Even the GFS has temperatures at -12 to -14 for 12 hours on friday with WSW winds. WOOHOO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro and CMC look great for LES Thursday night-Saturday! Even the GFS has temperatures at -12 to -14 for 12 hours on friday with WSW winds. WOOHOO! Dont get your hopes up 84 hr + out, especally in this winter. Ill get excited at 9pm Thursday if things still look the same and more so when i see the radar actually showing what the models said would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 KALB MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR MAINLYSNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN BASED ON THE CURRENT LOW TRACKS AND THERMAL PROFILES. QPF IS VERY UNCERTAINTY WITH LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES. HAVE USED GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET WITH HEAVY SNOW A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dont get your hopes up 84 hr + out, especally in this winter. Ill get excited at 9pm Thursday if things still look the same and more so when i see the radar actually showing what the models said would happen. Its only snow, I get more excited for tracking it then anything. Im never disappointed like you and ayuud get. You guys take this far to serious lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Binghamton FD: OVER THE WEEKEND...AND RIGHT INTO MON...A SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES/WEAK CLIPPERS...PLUS LAKE-ENHANCEMENT...SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODIC SHSN/FLRYS. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...A QUICKLY TRANSITIONING FLOW PATN (FQNT TROUGH/FRNTL PASSAGES) MAY WELL PRECLUDE SIG LES OVER ANY ONE AREA...BUT TIME WILL TELL. Cleveland FD: MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORE FROM ABOUT MENTOR AND FARTHER NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 15-20F WITH A STIFF WEST/SW WIND. Buffalo FD: THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSION RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE EXACT FLOW REGIMES OFF THE LAKES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A SHORT LIVED SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A MORE PROLONGED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT... WHILE THE GEM SUGGESTS A MORE PROLONGED SOUTHWEST/WEST EVENT. THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES. Hour 84 looks like it shows some dry air working its way into the LES. Hopefully that doesn't prevent a well aligned WSW flow if it comes to fruitioN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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