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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Whats your take on the LES potential Friday-Sunday this week?

The ingredients are certainly there for a lake response. A quick glance at the 12z runs seems to show less and less of a SW component once the cold air is in place. Looks like a traditional snow belt event if any. Plenty cold and windy though, so thats at least something.

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The 12z Euro is a thing of beauty for Metro Buffalo in terms of LES potential. Lets all hope its consistency remains through the next few days!

ensembles look good too imo. 12z euro ensemble mean just came out. Combination of the lake-aggregate trough and the upper level low located to the west induces a surface trough which keeps the surface winds backed compared to what you might expect from the low position north of the NY/Ontario border.

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif

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ensembles look good too imo. 12z euro ensemble mean just came out. Combination of the lake-aggregate trough and the upper level low located to the west induces a surface trough which keeps the surface winds backed compared to what you might expect from the low position north of the NY/Ontario border.

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif

winds look gusty thursday night into friday,you think that would be a factor?

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OVC and reasonably winter-like here today. 31F and a few flurries fro time to time..stiff wind.

If we get a real pattern change and winter wx is on tap ..I'll probably ditch this very old thread and start a mid winter thread.

Hopefully this upcoming pattern change pans out,i'm tired of this ****ty pattern we are in lol.

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I was in Western NY for the last three days and Fri and Sat were ridiculously mild. What snow they had in the lake belts was quickly olbiterated.

I noted that Naples in far southern Ontario County had around four inches remaining from the Lake Erie stuff Thursday night ...long gone now I'm sure.

hey you're back! i was wondering where you were....i thought this winter had driven you away lol

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Newest runs of all the models are all over the place one again. WOW!

ecwmf trended slightly worse with lake-effect conditions...but still shows a period of excellent WSW/SW flows conditions for BUF...for about 15 hours. The GFS isn't quite there yet but it is now showing about 260 flow with moderate instability on Friday.

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Michigan FD

EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION/ORIENTATION OF HEAVIEST

SNOW BANDS IS ALSO A BIT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL DEPEND

ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. EXTENT OF LAKE

AGGREGATE INDUCED SFC TROUGHING WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN BEHAVIOR OF

THE WINDS AND SNOW BANDS. INVERSION HEIGHTS/CONVECTIVE DEPTH SHOULD

BE DEEP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE UPR LOW OVERHEAD.

THERE APPEARS TO BE GROWING SUPPORT FROM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT

CLIPPER DISTURBANCES DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO

REINFORCE THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IMPLIES THAT ADDITIONAL...PERHAPS FREQUENT...

EPISODES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALLS ARE POSSIBLE.

I love the fact of a favorable LES environment for several days, along with shortwaves/clippers reinforcing shots of colder air along with shifting winds. Hopefully everyone will get a taste of a few bands over the next week! Euro is currently running now, lets see what it says!

Valdez Alaska is up over 24 feet of snow so far this year, 12 feet above normal. Interesting read

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45923783/ns/weather/#.Tws5_vkvDEY

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Euro and CMC look great for LES Thursday night-Saturday! Even the GFS has temperatures at -12 to -14 for 12 hours on friday with WSW winds. WOOHOO!

Dont get your hopes up 84 hr + out, especally in this winter. Ill get excited at 9pm Thursday if things still look the same and more so when i see the radar actually showing what the models said would happen.
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KALB

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR MAINLY

SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY

MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH SNOW

PERSISTING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ALSO A

THREAT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN BASED ON THE CURRENT LOW TRACKS AND

THERMAL PROFILES.

QPF IS VERY UNCERTAINTY WITH LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES. HAVE USED

GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. BASED ON

THE CURRENT FORECAST ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF

THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH

OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET WITH HEAVY SNOW

A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO

THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

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Dont get your hopes up 84 hr + out, especally in this winter. Ill get excited at 9pm Thursday if things still look the same and more so when i see the radar actually showing what the models said would happen.

Its only snow, I get more excited for tracking it then anything. Im never disappointed like you and ayuud get. You guys take this far to serious lol.

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Binghamton FD:

OVER THE WEEKEND...AND RIGHT INTO MON...A SERIES OF NRN STREAM

WAVES/WEAK CLIPPERS...PLUS LAKE-ENHANCEMENT...SHOULD BRING AT

LEAST PERIODIC SHSN/FLRYS. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...A QUICKLY

TRANSITIONING FLOW PATN (FQNT TROUGH/FRNTL PASSAGES) MAY WELL

PRECLUDE SIG LES OVER ANY ONE AREA...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

Cleveland FD:

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH

SOME LAKE EFFECT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORE FROM ABOUT

MENTOR AND FARTHER NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 15-20F

WITH A STIFF WEST/SW WIND.

Buffalo FD:

THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT

ARCTIC INTRUSION RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES

AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ESPECIALLY IN

THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE EXACT FLOW REGIMES OFF

THE LAKES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECMWF

SUGGESTING A SHORT LIVED SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A

MORE PROLONGED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT... WHILE THE GEM

SUGGESTS A MORE PROLONGED SOUTHWEST/WEST EVENT. THOUGH THERE

REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO

INCREASE PROBABILITIES TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES.

Hour 84 looks like it shows some dry air working its way into the LES. Hopefully that doesn't prevent a well aligned WSW flow if it comes to fruitioN!

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