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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Not a bad forecast at all....for early April. We should start a poll on what date BUF will crack the 10 inch snowfall mark for the season. Looks like it certainly won't happen during the next week, which already pushes us close to mid freaking January.

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 36. Southwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind around 17 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind around 8 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45

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how was your trip?

i was checking the obs and it seemed like weenie light snow has been falling in ottawa for the past few days lol

Went through an incredible temperature change on Wednesday. Bare ground and -3C all the way up to Kingston. Then hit a massive snowsquall just east of kingston to Ganonoque, where you could barely see anything infront of you. Once up to Brockville, it was -7C (20F). Then, as I drove up the 416, the temperature steadily dropped until it was -13C when I arrived in Ottawa! From around 3pm, steady light snow was falling. Left Ottawa at 9:45 pm with a temperature around -10C and light snow still falling. By the time i got back to Toronto at 1:55 am Thursday it was bare ground and 32F (0C)!

Take a look at the temperature difference between Ottawa/Montreal and Toronto today!

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Not a bad forecast at all....for early April. We should start a poll on what date BUF will crack the 10 inch snowfall mark for the season. Looks like it certainly won't happen during the next week, which already pushes us close to mid freaking January.

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 36. Southwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind around 17 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind around 8 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45

Well, look at it this way....you're buying a few extra days of potential LES off Erie for the season with all this warm weather.....heck....maybe Erie won't even freeze!!

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Went through an incredible temperature change on Wednesday. Bare ground and -3C all the way up to Kingston. Then hit a massive snowsquall just east of kingston to Ganonoque, where you could barely see anything infront of you. Once up to Brockville, it was -7C (20F). Then, as I drove up the 416, the temperature steadily dropped until it was -13C when I arrived in Ottawa! From around 3pm, steady light snow was falling. Left Ottawa at 9:45 pm with a temperature around -10C and light snow still falling. By the time i got back to Toronto at 1:55 am Thursday it was bare ground and 32F (0C)!

Take a look at the temperature difference between Ottawa/Montreal and Toronto today!

WOW!!! Currently 50f in Toronto, 14f in Ottawa!!!

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i know...I was there. :P

But, thanks for the reference for the people who don't know what I'm talking about. I should add..that's not necessarily how it will transpire obviously...but the EC, the EC ensembles, the GFS, and GEFS mean look pristine for heavy lake-effect somewhere east, southeast, or northeast of the lakes late next week and weekend.

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yep...if anything the flow looks more westerly than in Iron...but the general set-up is there. If anything...this set-up looks better lol. It's colder...506dm to 509dm thicknesses.

And with the multiple, spiraled vorticity channels, you can be assured that we will have pockets of available moisture pooling along the axes. The wonder maps RH values at t + 180 shows this nicely...and even the snowfall maps at 180 have a very impressive LES signature this far out!! Certainly WAY out there wrt LES forecasting, but it's all we gots right now!! ;)

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Went through an incredible temperature change on Wednesday. Bare ground and -3C all the way up to Kingston. Then hit a massive snowsquall just east of kingston to Ganonoque, where you could barely see anything infront of you. Once up to Brockville, it was -7C (20F). Then, as I drove up the 416, the temperature steadily dropped until it was -13C when I arrived in Ottawa! From around 3pm, steady light snow was falling. Left Ottawa at 9:45 pm with a temperature around -10C and light snow still falling. By the time i got back to Toronto at 1:55 am Thursday it was bare ground and 32F (0C)!

Take a look at the temperature difference between Ottawa/Montreal and Toronto today!

wow. thats a crazy but fun weather day! i love those kinds of drives in the winter.

i havent made it down I-81 yet this yr, hasnt been much i have missed though. always look forward to that every year.

ottawa has done remarkably well since 2 days before christmas. you wouldnt know it there that winter was still absent across much of the continent, as ottawa has been locked in since december 23rd or so. they have excelled the last couple weeks and you can see where they get just enough of that edge/push towards a north bay type climate than the rest of us.

even the difference between ottawa and montreal heat island is massive, with very little snow here.

if ottawa could somehow manage to avoid rain later this week, they will be setup for a very good run in the rest of winter.

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You know we're in the middle of a snow drought when we're analyzing 180 hr maps for lake effect potential....But like King said, it's all we've got so keep the updates coming!

if it was only on the op gfs i wouldn't even mention it...but there appears to be good support euro and ensemble support for heavy lake-effect somewhere near the lakes for that period.

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if it was only on the op gfs i wouldn't even mention it...but there appears to be good support euro and ensemble support for heavy lake-effect somewhere near the lakes for that period.

Wasn't the 2001 LES predicted weeks in advance? I remember that storm being almost perfectly predicted, as well as snowfall amounts. I remember seeing forecast for feet of snow at a time. I have never before seen such large snowfall amounts predicted from the NWS forecasts.

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Not to get too kooky with coco puffs over NEXT weekend's potential, but the 18z would be a really good hit for Buffalo....nice RH values at 850 and 700, along with a modestly cold 240ish wind.

it looks good for a nice northtowns event. :D

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It was Martin Luther King 3 day weekend in Jan 2007 (I beleive) when I took my son to the Oswego area to snow chase that 10' lake effect bonanza. If there's good lake effect next weekend, I'm ready for a snow chase! Lat time we stayed in Fulton. We went snowshoeing in a 5"/hour band and it was awesome!!!!!

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It was Martin Luther King 3 day weekend in Jan 2007 (I beleive) when I took my son to the Oswego area to snow chase that 10' lake effect bonanza. If there's good lake effect next weekend, I'm ready for a snow chase! Lat time we stayed in Fulton. We went snowshoeing in a 5"/hour band and it was awesome!!!!!

Still early but the GFS has shifted back (more to) the Euro....Next Thur. night through the weekend, places in the traditional snowbelts of Erie and Ontario should be cashing in nicely...

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06z alsoshows some pretty warm temps after the short cooldown. The gfs isn't reliable outside of 24 hours really.

Come on now....let's not start this stuff again! The models are tools....learn how to use them, and stop looking for verbatium outputs....espectially T+168.

At a week out, all the models show (and that we can have confidence in) is a sustantial trough and associated cold shot late next week. All the details, whether they be depicted by the Euro, GFS, or the NoGaps at this point, would involve some "luck" in nailing them at these leads.

The GFS is only "slightly" worse than the Euro based on the standard verification testing done, at 5-7 day leads.

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Come on now....let's not start this stuff again! The models are tools....learn how to use them, and stop looking for verbatium outputs....espectially T+168.

At a week out, all the models show (and that we can have confidence in) is a sustantial trough and associated cold shot late next week. All the details, whether they be depicted by the Euro, GFS, or the NoGaps at this point, would involve some "luck" in nailing them at these leads.

The GFS is only "slightly" worse than the Euro based on the standard verification testing done, at 5-7 day leads.

It was a joke and frusteration lol. didn't mean it literally. I know their just tools and to not look for verbatim outputs. Just want to see some snow for once! Gimme one 1'+ storm and I wouldnt care if I didnt see a flake the rest of the season.
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