Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I knew there was snow in Ottawa yesterday...but not 39cm! http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=49568&Month=1&Day=5&Year=2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I knew there was snow in Ottawa yesterday...but not 39cm! http://climate.weath...Day=5&Year=2012 how was your trip? i was checking the obs and it seemed like weenie light snow has been falling in ottawa for the past few days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Not a bad forecast at all....for early April. We should start a poll on what date BUF will crack the 10 inch snowfall mark for the season. Looks like it certainly won't happen during the next week, which already pushes us close to mid freaking January. This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 36. Southwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind around 17 mph. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 8 and 11 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind around 8 mph. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 how was your trip? i was checking the obs and it seemed like weenie light snow has been falling in ottawa for the past few days lol Went through an incredible temperature change on Wednesday. Bare ground and -3C all the way up to Kingston. Then hit a massive snowsquall just east of kingston to Ganonoque, where you could barely see anything infront of you. Once up to Brockville, it was -7C (20F). Then, as I drove up the 416, the temperature steadily dropped until it was -13C when I arrived in Ottawa! From around 3pm, steady light snow was falling. Left Ottawa at 9:45 pm with a temperature around -10C and light snow still falling. By the time i got back to Toronto at 1:55 am Thursday it was bare ground and 32F (0C)! Take a look at the temperature difference between Ottawa/Montreal and Toronto today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Not a bad forecast at all....for early April. We should start a poll on what date BUF will crack the 10 inch snowfall mark for the season. Looks like it certainly won't happen during the next week, which already pushes us close to mid freaking January. This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 36. Southwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind around 17 mph. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 8 and 11 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind around 8 mph. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45 Well, look at it this way....you're buying a few extra days of potential LES off Erie for the season with all this warm weather.....heck....maybe Erie won't even freeze!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, look at it this way....you're buying a few extra days of potential LES off Erie for the season with all this warm weather.....heck....maybe Erie won't even freeze!! the change is coming I think. Hopefully we can really go to town from mid to late January through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Went through an incredible temperature change on Wednesday. Bare ground and -3C all the way up to Kingston. Then hit a massive snowsquall just east of kingston to Ganonoque, where you could barely see anything infront of you. Once up to Brockville, it was -7C (20F). Then, as I drove up the 416, the temperature steadily dropped until it was -13C when I arrived in Ottawa! From around 3pm, steady light snow was falling. Left Ottawa at 9:45 pm with a temperature around -10C and light snow still falling. By the time i got back to Toronto at 1:55 am Thursday it was bare ground and 32F (0C)! Take a look at the temperature difference between Ottawa/Montreal and Toronto today! WOW!!! Currently 50f in Toronto, 14f in Ottawa!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The pattern depicted on the Euro at 180 hours or so looks quite similar to lake-effect storm Iron in late January 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The pattern depicted on the Euro at 180 hours or so looks quite similar to lake-effect storm Iron in late January 2004. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0304/i/stormisum.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa..../stormisum.html i know...I was there. But, thanks for the reference for the people who don't know what I'm talking about. I should add..that's not necessarily how it will transpire obviously...but the EC, the EC ensembles, the GFS, and GEFS mean look pristine for heavy lake-effect somewhere east, southeast, or northeast of the lakes late next week and weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The pattern depicted on the Euro at 180 hours or so looks quite similar to lake-effect storm Iron in late January 2004. Indeed it does....at least at h500: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Indeed it does....at least at h500: yep...if anything the flow looks more westerly than in Iron...but the general set-up is there. If anything...this set-up looks better lol. It's colder...506dm to 509dm thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 yep...if anything the flow looks more westerly than in Iron...but the general set-up is there. If anything...this set-up looks better lol. It's colder...506dm to 509dm thicknesses. And with the multiple, spiraled vorticity channels, you can be assured that we will have pockets of available moisture pooling along the axes. The wonder maps RH values at t + 180 shows this nicely...and even the snowfall maps at 180 have a very impressive LES signature this far out!! Certainly WAY out there wrt LES forecasting, but it's all we gots right now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Went through an incredible temperature change on Wednesday. Bare ground and -3C all the way up to Kingston. Then hit a massive snowsquall just east of kingston to Ganonoque, where you could barely see anything infront of you. Once up to Brockville, it was -7C (20F). Then, as I drove up the 416, the temperature steadily dropped until it was -13C when I arrived in Ottawa! From around 3pm, steady light snow was falling. Left Ottawa at 9:45 pm with a temperature around -10C and light snow still falling. By the time i got back to Toronto at 1:55 am Thursday it was bare ground and 32F (0C)! Take a look at the temperature difference between Ottawa/Montreal and Toronto today! wow. thats a crazy but fun weather day! i love those kinds of drives in the winter. i havent made it down I-81 yet this yr, hasnt been much i have missed though. always look forward to that every year. ottawa has done remarkably well since 2 days before christmas. you wouldnt know it there that winter was still absent across much of the continent, as ottawa has been locked in since december 23rd or so. they have excelled the last couple weeks and you can see where they get just enough of that edge/push towards a north bay type climate than the rest of us. even the difference between ottawa and montreal heat island is massive, with very little snow here. if ottawa could somehow manage to avoid rain later this week, they will be setup for a very good run in the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 You know we're in the middle of a snow drought when we're analyzing 180 hr maps for lake effect potential....But like King said, it's all we've got so keep the updates coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 You know we're in the middle of a snow drought when we're analyzing 180 hr maps for lake effect potential....But like King said, it's all we've got so keep the updates coming! if it was only on the op gfs i wouldn't even mention it...but there appears to be good support euro and ensemble support for heavy lake-effect somewhere near the lakes for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 if it was only on the op gfs i wouldn't even mention it...but there appears to be good support euro and ensemble support for heavy lake-effect somewhere near the lakes for that period. Wasn't the 2001 LES predicted weeks in advance? I remember that storm being almost perfectly predicted, as well as snowfall amounts. I remember seeing forecast for feet of snow at a time. I have never before seen such large snowfall amounts predicted from the NWS forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Not to get too kooky with coco puffs over NEXT weekend's potential, but the 18z would be a really good hit for Buffalo....nice RH values at 850 and 700, along with a modestly cold 240ish wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Not to get too kooky with coco puffs over NEXT weekend's potential, but the 18z would be a really good hit for Buffalo....nice RH values at 850 and 700, along with a modestly cold 240ish wind. it looks good for a nice northtowns event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 it looks good for a nice northtowns event. Don't worry it won't happen.... Either the winds will shift to 270, dry air will move in, too much shear,or itll somehow stay at 33 degrees with rain in buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It was Martin Luther King 3 day weekend in Jan 2007 (I beleive) when I took my son to the Oswego area to snow chase that 10' lake effect bonanza. If there's good lake effect next weekend, I'm ready for a snow chase! Lat time we stayed in Fulton. We went snowshoeing in a 5"/hour band and it was awesome!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It was Martin Luther King 3 day weekend in Jan 2007 (I beleive) when I took my son to the Oswego area to snow chase that 10' lake effect bonanza. If there's good lake effect next weekend, I'm ready for a snow chase! Lat time we stayed in Fulton. We went snowshoeing in a 5"/hour band and it was awesome!!!!! Still early but the GFS has shifted back (more to) the Euro....Next Thur. night through the weekend, places in the traditional snowbelts of Erie and Ontario should be cashing in nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Still early but the GFS has shifted back (more to) the Euro....Next Thur. night through the weekend, places in the traditional snowbelts of Erie and Ontario should be cashing in nicely... Euro is the king model, nothing else is relavent anymore to me. 45 degrees at 12:35 on January 7th....Dead Middle of Winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro shows amazing band of LES for Metro on SW winds for nearly a full day next week. Looks very intense as well. Some hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Euro shows amazing band of LES for Metro on SW winds for nearly a full day next week. Looks very intense as well. Some hope! too bad the 0z gfs lost it,i have yet to see the euro and gfs agree on something haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 too bad the 0z gfs lost it,i have yet to see the euro and gfs agree on something haha.. 06z alsoshows some pretty warm temps after the short cooldown. The gfs isn't reliable outside of 24 hours really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 06z alsoshows some pretty warm temps after the short cooldown. The gfs isn't reliable outside of 24 hours really. Come on now....let's not start this stuff again! The models are tools....learn how to use them, and stop looking for verbatium outputs....espectially T+168. At a week out, all the models show (and that we can have confidence in) is a sustantial trough and associated cold shot late next week. All the details, whether they be depicted by the Euro, GFS, or the NoGaps at this point, would involve some "luck" in nailing them at these leads. The GFS is only "slightly" worse than the Euro based on the standard verification testing done, at 5-7 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Come on now....let's not start this stuff again! The models are tools....learn how to use them, and stop looking for verbatium outputs....espectially T+168. At a week out, all the models show (and that we can have confidence in) is a sustantial trough and associated cold shot late next week. All the details, whether they be depicted by the Euro, GFS, or the NoGaps at this point, would involve some "luck" in nailing them at these leads. The GFS is only "slightly" worse than the Euro based on the standard verification testing done, at 5-7 day leads. It was a joke and frusteration lol. didn't mean it literally. I know their just tools and to not look for verbatim outputs. Just want to see some snow for once! Gimme one 1'+ storm and I wouldnt care if I didnt see a flake the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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