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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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I remember tremendously cold 850 temps in the 1995-96 winter. -40C was in Quebec. I'm sure somewhere in NY State went below -30C.

In early 1994 I didn't have access to 850 maps yet, but we had unofficial wx spotters reports of -35F actual temperature in sheltered rural areas in ENY outside Albany. The 850 temps must have been ultra cold.

I lived 40 minutes below ALB until 2005.... my lowest was -24F in that 1994 winter. As a kid we had -26F in 1982 down where I grew up.

So suffice to say ..this stuff now is child's play. :)

850mb.

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The number of -49F stands out in my mind for Old Forge in one of the epic cold snaps....

BTW Inlet (near O.F.) did manage 11" of snow this week. IMO if I was LES afficionado...I would move to that O.F./Inlet area. Yeah not gonna beat the Tug, but beautiful lakes, mountains, less tendency to torch, far enough east to catch more synoptic action. O.F. is a lovely village, but a tad remote yes..... 60 miles down to Utica from there.

GFL hit -30F last year end of JAN, SLK was near -40F. That was with 850s probably around -25C but I have to check on that under ideal radational cooling with good snow cover.

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but Dt says

*** ALERT *** 12z GFS and EURO both agree on MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE coming for Mid January . Both Models shows large scale cold air / possibly arctic air mass outbreaks by Day 9-10 over entire eastern half of the CONUS.. not 2 or 3 day shots but some serious WHAMMO!!!
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but Dt says

I'm not a long range guy myself...but FWIW...several of the SNE regulars are also really playing up this pattern change a bit as well. Not quite as gung-ho as DT (he has a way of embellishing things just a bit), but still seem to be some indications a shift is on its way after next week's potential mid/late week soaker. Question remains who cashes in if the pattern does indeed change...but climo argues that even in the crappiest of winters, we are due for some decent action.

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Also from DT - hopefully he's on to something here...

*** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb 30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1.

I'm not a long range guy myself...but FWIW...several of the SNE regulars are also really playing up this pattern change a bit as well. Not quite as gung-ho as DT (he has a way of embellishing things just a bit), but still seem to be some indications a shift is on its way after next week's potential mid/late week soaker. Question remains who cashes in if the pattern does indeed change...but climo argues that even in the crappiest of winters, we are due for some decent action.

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GFL hit -30F last year end of JAN, SLK was near -40F. That was with 850s probably around -25C but I have to check on that under ideal radational cooling with good snow cover.

SLK has to be one of the coldest spot in the u.s,even by late summer they manage to get below 32F..

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SLK IS one of the coldest spots in the lower 48. Just something special about the Adirondacks:)

I recall XC skiing in Jan or Feb 1994 early in the am, and getting bundled up to do so carefully - it was just below -40F. Didn't ski far, just a little way to say I had, and took it easy. Then I got back to work (worked part time at an XC center then).

Corresponding with fellow snow groomers from around the world we're not alone in our snowless condition, that's for sure. It is interesting weather... but not the kind I personally get excited about is all.

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From Buffalo AFD:

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW

ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR ARRIVING AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT

WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO AT OR EVEN BELOW AVERAGE.

MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE RAIN...WITH PERHAPS JUST A

LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END.

IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT

ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A

FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE

AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL

NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH

LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10

DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT

MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT

WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3

WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL

LIKELY CONTINUE.

SOS

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The 12Z GFS seems to be alone in having the coastal be more dominant with a good closed circulation allowing some cold advection on the north and west side of the storm. The more likely scenario at this points seems to be a more stretched out low with a stronger primary = warmer and rainier. If it helps to change the pattern then so be it. 18Z GFS seems to have more of a Euro like system. Expect a lot of model flip flopping with this one. 12Z GFS Ensemble members show a wide range of possibilities. Hope the ADK's can at least cash in.

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