OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 when was the last time we had -30c over upstate? you mean at the surface or at 850mb? Watertown got down to -27F last winter. I think we got around -30C at 850 in January 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 you mean at the surface or at 850mb? Watertown got down to -27F last winter. I think we got around -30C at 850 in January 2004. 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 nice hit for buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 nice hit for buf too bad it's rain. Looks similar to that failed low that went through CNY. Verbatim the gfs storm is actually warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 when was the last time we had -30c over upstate? GFL hit -30F last year end of JAN, SLK was near -40F. That was with 850s probably around -25C but I have to check on that under ideal radational cooling with good snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 too bad it's rain. Looks similar to that failed low that went through CNY. Verbatim the gfs storm is actually warmer. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 I remember tremendously cold 850 temps in the 1995-96 winter. -40C was in Quebec. I'm sure somewhere in NY State went below -30C. In early 1994 I didn't have access to 850 maps yet, but we had unofficial wx spotters reports of -35F actual temperature in sheltered rural areas in ENY outside Albany. The 850 temps must have been ultra cold. I lived 40 minutes below ALB until 2005.... my lowest was -24F in that 1994 winter. As a kid we had -26F in 1982 down where I grew up. So suffice to say ..this stuff now is child's play. 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 The number of -49F stands out in my mind for Old Forge in one of the epic cold snaps.... BTW Inlet (near O.F.) did manage 11" of snow this week. IMO if I was LES afficionado...I would move to that O.F./Inlet area. Yeah not gonna beat the Tug, but beautiful lakes, mountains, less tendency to torch, far enough east to catch more synoptic action. O.F. is a lovely village, but a tad remote yes..... 60 miles down to Utica from there. GFL hit -30F last year end of JAN, SLK was near -40F. That was with 850s probably around -25C but I have to check on that under ideal radational cooling with good snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 nice welcome back to Ottawa for Ottawa Blizzard today temp around 10, windchills below 0, SN- falling, 6 inches OTG and everything solidly iced over with the arctic freeze yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 2011-2012 Winter FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Holiday Valley in Ellicottville came in with 17" from the lake effect event. 17" in Sherman. And 16" in Cattaraugus. BUF airport landed up with 1.4" wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Anyone else noticed the lack of snow across Upstate to this point? Consider this... The golden snowball race cities of Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse have received a combined snowfall total of 43.3" thus far. Syracuse alone has an average snowfall total of 45.7" by this date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 but Dt says *** ALERT *** 12z GFS and EURO both agree on MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE coming for Mid January . Both Models shows large scale cold air / possibly arctic air mass outbreaks by Day 9-10 over entire eastern half of the CONUS.. not 2 or 3 day shots but some serious WHAMMO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 but Dt says I'm not a long range guy myself...but FWIW...several of the SNE regulars are also really playing up this pattern change a bit as well. Not quite as gung-ho as DT (he has a way of embellishing things just a bit), but still seem to be some indications a shift is on its way after next week's potential mid/late week soaker. Question remains who cashes in if the pattern does indeed change...but climo argues that even in the crappiest of winters, we are due for some decent action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I do not see anything to get excited about for the next 7-10 days at all...Aside from the fact that it will be warm, thus keeping our friend Lake Erie nice and toasty! Hopefully the last 2 weeks of January brings lots of cold over a ridiculously warm lake! (Possibly record breaking warm lake) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 nice welcome back to Ottawa for Ottawa Blizzard today temp around 10, windchills below 0, SN- falling, 6 inches OTG and everything solidly iced over with the arctic freeze yesterday No kidding, it was brutal this morning.....so cold! It certainly feels like January today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Also from DT - hopefully he's on to something here... *** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb 30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1. I'm not a long range guy myself...but FWIW...several of the SNE regulars are also really playing up this pattern change a bit as well. Not quite as gung-ho as DT (he has a way of embellishing things just a bit), but still seem to be some indications a shift is on its way after next week's potential mid/late week soaker. Question remains who cashes in if the pattern does indeed change...but climo argues that even in the crappiest of winters, we are due for some decent action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 from the CNY mets: http://www.9wsyr.com/content/news_team/blogs/weather/story/Winter-finally-getting-ready-to-start-1-4-11/Ej2P-VILqUOyoNsrTTb5yQ.cspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 from the CNY mets: http://www.9wsyr.com...oNsrTTb5yQ.cspx thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFL hit -30F last year end of JAN, SLK was near -40F. That was with 850s probably around -25C but I have to check on that under ideal radational cooling with good snow cover. SLK has to be one of the coldest spot in the u.s,even by late summer they manage to get below 32F.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 SLK IS one of the coldest spots in the lower 48. Just something special about the Adirondacks:) I recall XC skiing in Jan or Feb 1994 early in the am, and getting bundled up to do so carefully - it was just below -40F. Didn't ski far, just a little way to say I had, and took it easy. Then I got back to work (worked part time at an XC center then). Corresponding with fellow snow groomers from around the world we're not alone in our snowless condition, that's for sure. It is interesting weather... but not the kind I personally get excited about is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Went roller-skiing again tonight. If I close my eyes, it's almost like the asphalt is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It's pretty remarkable how similar the 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS are out to 240hrs. There are some differences in location to the double-barreled low, but still impressive none-the-less. Check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Some light mood snow this morning...fresh dusting on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12Z GFS is intriguing . Storm (midweek) draws some cold air in and has a bit of dynamic cooling for a rain snow mix. Looks like an elevation storm. Something to track I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 from the CNY mets: http://www.9wsyr.com...oNsrTTb5yQ.cspx Yeah, lets predict whats going to happen weeks from now when we cant even predict whats going to happen tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah, lets predict whats going to happen weeks from now when we cant even predict whats going to happen tomorrow. good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 From Buffalo AFD: LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR ARRIVING AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO AT OR EVEN BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE RAIN...WITH PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END. IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3 WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. SOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The 12Z GFS seems to be alone in having the coastal be more dominant with a good closed circulation allowing some cold advection on the north and west side of the storm. The more likely scenario at this points seems to be a more stretched out low with a stronger primary = warmer and rainier. If it helps to change the pattern then so be it. 18Z GFS seems to have more of a Euro like system. Expect a lot of model flip flopping with this one. 12Z GFS Ensemble members show a wide range of possibilities. Hope the ADK's can at least cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18Z DGEX lol....dynamic cooling FTW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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