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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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It is very fluffy, but I thought most LES is like that.... That's why I prefer a nice heavy dump of a foot of 10-1 snow any day. It has some staying power. But not gonna turn down a little LES in this miserable pattern.

Next week should be beneficial for your location...all that NW flow.

The closer you get to the lake for the most part it is much denser. Looks more like real snow but it still doesn't have the moisture. It's also much more abrasive on the snowmobile slide rails.

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Its been a while since ive seen a forecast like this for herkimer

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 19.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26.

http://forecast.weat...87&lon=-74.9928

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TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS

850MB TEMPS FALL AS WELL. EVENTUALLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT

IN MODEST LEVELS OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG

POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO W. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE

ONSET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS E OF THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL

GROW PROGRESSIVELY COLDER. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...IT WILL BE

DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT WIND DIRECTION...BUT THE MEAN FLOW

SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL

REACH WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 12Z GFS/EURO/GGEM

ALL FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO -20 TO -24C ACROSS

WESTERN NEW YORK. OUTSIDE OF THE BITTERLY COLD SURFACE

TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE TO WIND CHILL...THIS

ALSO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT SO

FAR THIS SEASON.

WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF

FETCH...THE SHEAR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OUTWEIGH THIS. THIS WILL

RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED CAPE.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN

MOISTURE...AND PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH

ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. SNOW SHOULD BE VERY

FLUFFY...WITH 30:1 RATIOS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THIS SAID...NOT ALL OF

WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS PATTERN.

TYPICALLY...SE OF LAKE ONTARIO (WAYNE/OSWEGO/CAYUGA) AND WESTERN

PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW IN THIS

PATTERN. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO BEARS WATCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKE

ONTARIO SOUTHERN SHORES...INCLUDING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE

COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO

FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS...AND FOR BITTERLY COLD

WIND CHILLS.

BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BUILD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY

NIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IF

THIS PANS OUT...THIS SHOULD END LAKE SNOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER ACROSS

MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. ANOTHER (BUT LESS SIGNIFICANT) SHORTWAVE

WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A SW

FLOW AHEAD OF IT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS NE OF THE LAKES FOR

THIS...AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE SNOWS AHEAD OF

THIS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR

THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

woohoo!! :snowing:
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The flow is westerly on Monday...northwesterly doesn't come into Monday night and Tuesday. But either way...

I don't think the Euro and the NAM are that far off from being decent in the metro area on Sunday night. We need the ridge to really amplify out west and hold in a similar position or just a bit further west.

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The flow is westerly on Monday...northwesterly doesn't come into Monday night and Tuesday. But either way...

I don't think the Euro and the NAM are that far off from being decent in the metro area on Sunday night. We need the ridge to really amplify out west and hold in a similar position or just a bit further west.

they also think they MIGHT be some embedded short waves during that timeframe in which the models are not picking up at this range..

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I will take a West wind any day. Hamburg usually gets hit from these. West winds also enable most of the Lake to be utilized in the development of the LES. Its snowing pretty good out there right now from this clipper. Just got home from Tim Hortons, all roads are snow covered and slippery. Nice big fat flakes, was pleasant surprise.

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The cold has held longer than expected in Toronto. Still in the low 20s at my place. Very winterlike outside. Very odd situation in that Buffalo has bare ground while Toronto has snow. It's not too often that you see that!

What do you mean? This is only 25 minutes from my house.

http://www.holidayvalley.com/HolidayValley/mediagallery.aspx?tab=webCam

=P

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Sounds nice...Finally a nice winter day in upstate NY yesterday as well. About 2 inches of snow fell during the day at my current location (Weesport) with the cold temps and strong breeze. Definitely a winter so far to get out and take advantage of the cold/snow when it's here.

yeah i agree, a winter to enjoy on those rare days. hopefully some of you guys can get a nice LES beating next week.

and btw, ive never seen such a weak clipper induce so much warming at surface and mid levels LOL!

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Anyone have a good link to a good spot to find traffic conditions and road conditions for SW NY? I am suppose to leave Peek N Peak Ski area Monday morning around 10am to head down 79 towards Pittsburgh but i am wondering if i should either leave early or plan to stay later. If staying later I may need to stay until Wednesday if some of the models are correct re: LE Snows. Thanks.

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Anyone have a good link to a good spot to find traffic conditions and road conditions for SW NY? I am suppose to leave Peek N Peak Ski area Monday morning around 10am to head down 79 towards Pittsburgh but i am wondering if i should either leave early or plan to stay later. If staying later I may need to stay until Wednesday if some of the models are correct re: LE Snows. Thanks.

http://www.thruway.ny.gov/webcams/

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BUFFALO

RANK YEAR SNOW FALL ANNUAL TOTAL

THROUGH (INCHES)

END OF YEAR

(INCHES)

1 1896 3.6 50.2

2 1931 3.8 49.6

3 1918 5.8 25.0

4 1923 6.4 46.7

5 1888 7.0 67.3

6 1891 8.0 80.9

7 1948 8.2 40.1

8 1994 8.7 74.6

9 1889 9.1 22.4

10 1939 9.2 83.6

looks like odds favor a below avg snowfall for the buffalo area.

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looks like odds favor a below avg snowfall for the buffalo area.

Ayuud nearly all of the years you posted the snow measuring location was right on the lake. That area is known to received 20-30 inches less then then current location of Cheektowaga (Airport). So those statistics are extremely skewed. Recently in 1999 there was hardly any snow in December, that was quickly followed by a 60+ inch January. The same could happen this year...As long as Lake Erie isn't frozen KBUF could have huge snowfall amounts.

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Ayuud nearly all of the years you posted the snow measuring location was right on the lake. That area is known to received 20-30 inches less then then current location of Cheektowaga (Airport). So those statistics are extremely skewed. Recently in 1999 there was hardly any snow in December, that was quickly followed by a 60+ inch January. The same could happen this year...As long as Lake Erie isn't frozen KBUF could have huge snowfall amounts.

ehh..I don't think the airport gets that much more than downtown. Snow is measured differently nowadays than it was back then...many times they would just stick the ruler in at the end of an event back then...they didn't have the 6 hour standard which matters a great deal for snow, especially drier lake-effect. The airport has had a very good streak the last 15 years or so...which I believe is skewing the climo a bit. If you look at the snow spotter archive...hamburg and west seneca have averaged less than the airport...which is likely a short term blip for the general climo of the region.

Your general point still stands though...if those years had happened now and they had been measuring snow at the airport..they would have likely recorded significantly more.

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