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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Delanson is near Albany! Need VERY strong winds to cross some 200 miles! I want West to Southwest winds the whole week. With the lake at 43 degrees with the arctic air thats coming....Could result in snowfall rates of 4-6 inches per hour. Either way, I am going storm chasing....If its safe. Anything over 2-3 inches per hour can equal being trapped for days with LES.

Take me with u! Im serious
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Euro looks like predominantly NW winds the whole period as well. Holiday should have excellent base pretty soon, can't wait to head down there soon.

west..not nw...the tug and ski resorts will get pounded.

my only concern..which is highlighted on the euro...is that the cold air needed for lake-effect may arrive a bit too late for BUF to get solidly into the event. The 850s are -7C on the Euro when the 850mb low is in the classic position for BUF lake-effect...just south of James Bay.

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I will take west wind direction. Being 15 miles south of Buffalo, any wobble to the north usually hits me. Its the NW winds that I have 0 chance of getting anything. At least in the northeasten portion of Erie County with NW winds you can get Huron streamers...That's impossible here.

I guess we can hope for a few shortwaves to come through to change the wind direction. =P

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I will take west wind direction. Being 15 miles south of Buffalo, any wobble to the north usually hits me. Its the NW winds that I have 0 chance of getting anything. At least in the northeasten portion of Erie County with NW winds you can get Huron streamers...That's impossible here.

I guess we can hope for a few shortwaves to come through to change the wind direction. =P

i hope so..

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00z euro is even colder than the 12z with the arctic plunge on the 3rd of January..brutal cold on straight northerly winds out of Ontario.

-24c 850s in BUF to -26 to -28C over the Tug and the Dacks.

Nick, it'll be interesting to see just how moist the airmass will be upon arrival....getting 850's that cold is great, but typically that type of cold needs to come in on WNW (gathering moisture from Superior on down) to generate anything super significant....but with the lakes so warm...who knows?!!

No models picked up on my 7.5" that I picked up over the last 18 hours, so I think the lakes are in "over perform" mode, wrt models....

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It happens though..... I get about 12 to 18 inches per season that is LES from Lake Ontario. It's about 130 miles as the crow flies from Lake Ontario to here..... Synboptic Noreasters are my main wx excitement, but I'm happy to get 2 or 3 inch LES events occasionally. My record from LES was 5 inches once.

By 2 to 3 inches I mean over the course of maybe a day. LOL ...not per hour.

Delanson is near Albany! Need VERY strong winds to cross some 200 miles! I want West to Southwest winds the whole week. With the lake at 43 degrees with the arctic air thats coming....Could result in snowfall rates of 4-6 inches per hour. Either way, I am going storm chasing....If its safe. Anything over 2-3 inches per hour can equal being trapped for days with LES.

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Nick, it'll be interesting to see just how moist the airmass will be upon arrival....getting 850's that cold is great, but typically that type of cold needs to come in on WNW (gathering moisture from Superior on down) to generate anything super significant....but with the lakes so warm...who knows?!!

No models picked up on my 7.5" that I picked up over the last 18 hours, so I think the lakes are in "over perform" mode, wrt models....

Oh I think the arctic outbreak comes on the heels of the significant lake-effect. NNW flow with such an airmass could be nice for fluffy multiband or the finger lakes but as you know it's usually doesn't lead to major storms. Monday looks really nice for those east and east-southeast of the lakes.

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if it does get that cold when is the last time we saw 850s that cold? And would it be too cold for good snow growth?

probably a few winters ago...I don't think the last couple winters have gotten that cold in BUF. The flow isn't good for heavy lake-effect but good for cold...this is on the 3rd...most of the snow will fall before that.

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Going to waste all Lake Eries Warmth on a NW flow...really??!? BOO!! Snow rates don't get close to what a W/SW wind can do.

Wasted? Ahem. ;)

GFS has had a WNW flow for a period on Monday. If we can get that, the Jamestown area has a good chance at getting something. A NW flow is sometimes nice (December 2, 2005) here, but often it produces a narrow but heavy band over Randolph (December 2010), leaving the Jamestown area with a constant light snow (which can still add up, as it did last December to around 24" and January 2010 to 35.5", but these were longer durations than this will be).

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went out for a walk this evening, had to cut it short due to the cold.

really was one of those winter nights in ottawa where i thought i was in the arctic.....and with the xmas lights and snow plastered and frozen to everything and all roads iced over, wow, just an amazing scene.

wished i could have imported everyone from this board for a group photo next to some of the houses and lights lol.

Sounds nice...Finally a nice winter day in upstate NY yesterday as well. About 2 inches of snow fell during the day at my current location (Weesport) with the cold temps and strong breeze. Definitely a winter so far to get out and take advantage of the cold/snow when it's here.

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Oh I think the arctic outbreak comes on the heels of the significant lake-effect. NNW flow with such an airmass could be nice for fluffy multiband or the finger lakes but as you know it's usually doesn't lead to major storms. Monday looks really nice for those east and east-southeast of the lakes.

Hmm, no work on Monday and the chance for heavy squalls nearby. Time to start planning for a possible chase from the northtowns down to the hills. I've hit Hunter Creek Park and Sprague Brook Park a couple times during other chases - pretty easy spots to get to and lots of room to get out and enjoy the snow....Anyone have other "chase spots" in WNY?

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Hmm, no work on Monday and the chance for heavy squalls nearby. Time to start planning for a possible chase from the northtowns down to the hills. I've hit Hunter Creek Park and Sprague Brook Park a couple times during other chases - pretty easy spots to get to and lots of room to get out and enjoy the snow....Anyone have other "chase spots" in WNY?

Chestnut ridge is nice on a W to WSW event, if the band is in the city go there and you can see the band like youve never seen it before. Its awesome.
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Sounds nice...Finally a nice winter day in upstate NY yesterday as well. About 2 inches of snow fell during the day at my current location (Weesport) with the cold temps and strong breeze. Definitely a winter so far to get out and take advantage of the cold/snow when it's here.

Where is Weesport? I thought you were in Amherst?
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It happens though..... I get about 12 to 18 inches per season that is LES from Lake Ontario. It's about 130 miles as the crow flies from Lake Ontario to here..... Synboptic Noreasters are my main wx excitement, but I'm happy to get 2 or 3 inch LES events occasionally. My record from LES was 5 inches once.

By 2 to 3 inches I mean over the course of maybe a day. LOL ...not per hour.

It must be wicked fluffly cotton candy typ of snow by the time it gets to you.

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It is very fluffy, but I thought most LES is like that.... That's why I prefer a nice heavy dump of a foot of 10-1 snow any day. It has some staying power. But not gonna turn down a little LES in this miserable pattern.

Next week should be beneficial for your location...all that NW flow.

It must be wicked fluffly cotton candy typ of snow by the time it gets to you.

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While I don't have the elevation you do, we both need a similar setup for LES (a good WNW wind). It ends up adding up to a lot more than I initially expected. Granted, these are all mostly 0.2's to an inch or two minor stuff, but it adds up over the course of an average season, so that my totals took a nice little jump moving here from East Greenbush. You are right about the consistency, haha...it seems like it can be eviscerated by shining a strong flashlight on it...the synoptic snows may not be quite as dynamic, but its more widespread and has decent staying power here on the eastern side of the Apps.

I think one particular wretched winter here, maybe 05-06, a lake event was my heaviest 'event' of the winter with about 4-4.5". It was all localized though as Niskayuna, 15 minutes or so east of me had hardly anything.

It is very fluffy, but I thought most LES is like that.... That's why I prefer a nice heavy dump of a foot of 10-1 snow any day. It has some staying power. But not gonna turn down a little LES in this miserable pattern.

Next week should be beneficial for your location...all that NW flow.

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2005-06 was the year I had my epic LES blizzard in like early December and got close to 5 inches.. Hah December that year was wintry.

Then January onwards was mild, but there was an elevation aided storm in early January where I got around 8 inches I think. That was the biggest storm of that sub-par winter.

While I don't have the elevation you do, we both need a similar setup for LES (a good WNW wind). It ends up adding up to a lot more than I initially expected. Granted, these are all mostly 0.2's to an inch or two minor stuff, but it adds up over the course of an average season, so that my totals took a nice little jump moving here from East Greenbush. You are right about the consistency, haha...it seems like it can be eviscerated by shining a strong flashlight on it...the synoptic snows may not be quite as dynamic, but its more widespread and has decent staying power here on the eastern side of the Apps.

I think one particular wretched winter here, maybe 05-06, a lake event was my heaviest 'event' of the winter with about 4-4.5". It was all localized though as Niskayuna, 15 minutes or so east of me had hardly anything.

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