lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Also wanna mention (very surprised no one else has yet) that 10 years ago today buffalo had 26.2" of snow fall at the airport, just part of the 82" in less than a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Tug hill is getting blasted pretty good tonight. About a foot on the ground and counting... 2 days ago there wasn't but an inch. http://www.northernchateau.com/webcam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Good thunder here now That's what I thought too... but then I heard more, and it sounded more like fireworks. Turns out it was a gasoline leak downriver a few miles (1200 gallons) exploding in the sewer in spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Holiday Valley in Ellicottville is now reporting 7-8″ in the last 24 hours and its still coming down there on their webcams… http://www.holidayvalley.com/HolidayValley/mtn-cams.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 would be cool if those gfs temps verify,i wanna see how the lake reacts to those type of temps!@ holy sh!t!! Just looked at the 18z gfs and it has 850s dropping to -23c and with the lakes at around 6c we could see deltas of 30c!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 holy sh!t!! Just looked at the 18z gfs and it has 850s dropping to -23c and with the lakes at around 6c we could see deltas of 30c!!! Yes, that's why were excited. But if the air is to dry, that air equates to nothing more then a few flurries. Let alone the wind direction, our best hope is several shortwaves coming through over a few day period adding enough moisture to move the winds around. Or better yet, a stalled out low pressure system over Georgian Bay, continually delivering moisture, cold air, and SW winds! Oh wait, that's once in a lifetime...back in 2001! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 That's what I thought too... but then I heard more, and it sounded more like fireworks. Turns out it was a gasoline leak downriver a few miles (1200 gallons) exploding in the sewer in spots! I got in at 5:00 am this morning dealing with that mess. I have been in the Fort Edward Fire Dept. For almost 20 years and have never seen anything like it. I hope it never happens again. What a mess. I am just so happy nobody was hurt or killed. There are manhole covers still missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yes, that's why were excited. But if the air is to dry, that air equates to nothing more then a few flurries. Let alone the wind direction, our best hope is several shortwaves coming through over a few day period adding enough moisture to move the winds around. Or better yet, a stalled out low pressure system over Georgian Bay, continually delivering moisture, cold air, and SW winds! Oh wait, that's once in a lifetime...back in 2001! =) Hey maybe with some shortwaves moving through we can all get sprayed with a foot in WNY with the ski resorts picking up a few feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 We can forget about the clipper. It went way north on the 0Z NAM and this year nothing ever trends back south..... Heavy coating here now from these modest squalls..... though most has shifted south of me now. 18.6F. Hey maybe with some shortwaves moving through we can all get sprayed with a foot in WNY with the ski resorts picking up a few feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 We can forget about the clipper. It went way north on the 0Z NAM and this year nothing ever trends back south..... Heavy coating here now from these modest squalls..... though most has shifted south of me now. 18.6F. Actually the clipper still looks okay here to drop an inch or two Friday night.... What I'm getting all excited for is the potential for the extreme lake snows next week... Should prob stop myself because I'm likely only setting myself up for major disappointment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Holiday Valley in Ellicottville is STILL hanging on to a pretty steady snowfall down there. Check out the Foxfire Upper,Middle, and Lower cams... They were reporting 7-8" as of several hours ago, I'm sure their approaching 10 inches now. Good to see their getting some help from mother nature finally, and if the 18z GFS is right Holiday Valley could be buried by this time next week... http://www.holidayvalley.com/HolidayValley/mtn-cams.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I hope the bands move all over the place next week if LES indeed does set-up. If it last for days, it has to....Shortwaves are constantly bringing the winds back to SW before they drop back down to the southern tier in the normal NW direction. Devin and Ayuud...I'm pretty much done asking questions to Don on that blog. Hes a meteorologist, but not a very good one. You can see glimpses of him not knowing very much, hes average at best. I'd prefer to get a detailed explanation from some of the Mets on here. They seem more "with it", compared to him. My favorite is still Andy Parker from channel 2...He predicted the October Surprise storm when no one else did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I think Don is a great meteorologist. Very good Richard. I do get very frusterated at times on there though because if you make any comment that doesn't fit with him or any other the other people who think they own the blog they will attack you. I used to enjoy posting there but it seems that you can't say a thing unless you have 100% scientific evidence without being yelled at. Then you have the ones like C from P who are just downright annoying. Will definitly be posting here more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Oh and that Don and the other virtually throw a fit if you post more then once an hour or get into a bit of an OT conversation. Not to mention if you say something others don't agree with they'll bash you head on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 He is an average Met...He graduated 30 years ago, yes...But advancements in technology have helped newer Mets get that extra step on the old guys in my opinion. Its truly evident in many of his forecasts....Andy Parker is the best by far if you watch all of his, even predicting the "unpredictable" October surprise storm. Its also evident in the way he manages his blog....he is technologically deficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 He is an average Met...He graduated 30 years ago, yes...But advancements in technology have helped newer Mets get that extra step on the old guys in my opinion. Its truly evident in many of his forecasts....Andy Parker is the best by far if you watch all of his, even predicting the "unpredictable" October surprise storm. Its also evident in the way he manages his blog....he is technologically deficient. You're not referring to Don Sutherland on this forum are you? I've always enjoyed reading his posts. Very insightful and he always seems very non judgemental and polite. Drove up to Muskoka for the day today. Absolutely stunning winter scenery. Drove through a nice snowsquall around Barrie on the way south. Got to love Barrie for snowsqualls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You're not referring to Don Sutherland on this forum are you? I've always enjoyed reading his posts. Very insightful and he always seems very non judgemental and polite. Drove up to Muskoka for the day today. Absolutely stunning winter scenery. Drove through a nice snowsquall around Barrie on the way south. Got to love Barrie for snowsqualls. No Don Paul from channel 4 in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 No Don Paul from channel 4 in Buffalo. oh, okay. I was thinking when I read the thread that it didn't sound like the Don from our board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Looks like temperatures get really cold for LES next week. However, the primary wind direction looks NW over the course of that from Monday-Wednesday. We actually want that low pressure system to go farther west and keep us warmer so when it comes through the winds remain SW, just like happened last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 looks like the snow will be measured in feet east of the lakes early next week. The euro is unbelievably cold on jan 3rd. sub-zero lows for most of NYS with temperatures hovering in the single digits for much of the day...below zero in the dacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 OSU!!! What wind direction are you thinking.....Would be horrible if its NW the whole week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 I got channel 4 when I stayed in Oakville recently. Maybe you can get him on the cable systems in GTA. I dunno if he is great or not, but I have visited my relatives in Allegany County since the 70's and watched wx reports when there. He has been on air forever it seems. BTW ..they are 80 miles as the crow flies from BUF, but I put a digital antenna up for them and got them 2, 4 and 7 perfectly. oh, okay. I was thinking when I read the thread that it didn't sound like the Don from our board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You're not referring to Don Sutherland on this forum are you? I've always enjoyed reading his posts. Very insightful and he always seems very non judgemental and polite. Drove up to Muskoka for the day today. Absolutely stunning winter scenery. Drove through a nice snowsquall around Barrie on the way south. Got to love Barrie for snowsqualls. went out for a walk this evening, had to cut it short due to the cold. really was one of those winter nights in ottawa where i thought i was in the arctic.....and with the xmas lights and snow plastered and frozen to everything and all roads iced over, wow, just an amazing scene. wished i could have imported everyone from this board for a group photo next to some of the houses and lights lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 I hope it's not too much NW... I need WNW off Lake Ontario here. Love to get a triple lake event going ..Superior -> Huron -> Ontario. I can get several inches when it really sets up just right. That may be my only hope of getting any snow this season. OSU!!! What wind direction are you thinking.....Would be horrible if its NW the whole week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Delanson is near Albany! Need VERY strong winds to cross some 200 miles! I want West to Southwest winds the whole week. With the lake at 43 degrees with the arctic air thats coming....Could result in snowfall rates of 4-6 inches per hour. Either way, I am going storm chasing....If its safe. Anything over 2-3 inches per hour can equal being trapped for days with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 OSU!!! What wind direction are you thinking.....Would be horrible if its NW the whole week..... I don't think it's going to be nw the whole week...it looks predominant west to wnw. The gfs looks really good for the metro area at the beginning of the event on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Thanks OSU! I did see the winds become W/SW going into Wednesday as well. But shortwaves are extremely hard to predict it seems....Why exactly are shortwaves so hard to predict? Always wondered this...Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 we'll have to make our bones in the early part of the event...because without the NAO in our favor...the upper level low is going to drift east with time. The +PNA ridge gets it there...but the +NAO keeps it moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I don't think it's going to be nw the whole week...it looks predominant west to wnw. The gfs looks really good for the metro area at the beginning of the event on Sunday. too much shear on Thursday when the wind finally switch to wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Thanks OSU! I did see the winds become W/SW going into Wednesday as well. But shortwaves are extremely hard to predict it seems....Why exactly are shortwaves so hard to predict? Always wondered this...Thanks! shortwaves by their name are "short" are only compromise a relatively small number of model grid points, so they are hard to track with reasonable accuracy through time. Long waves are easier to predict. Sometimes, they also come from a data sparse region in northern Canada where they can be missed by the models until they get closer to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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