Organizing Low Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 what an odd storm coming up later this week. looks like the euro and latest NAM would flip ottawa-montreal from rain on tuesday to snow on wednesay. cant say i can recall a similar path and storm that would deliver snow in that type of configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Check out my Final Winter forecast on my blog. http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/11/final-winter-2012-forecast_26.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Warmest / least snowy winter in many years on the way...let's be Thankful for that. You younger people will understand this someday. George / LEK - we're going to be sub 100" for a change...so be it. I think the periods we do get winter - Feb/Mar will be enjoyable for us! Take care all...hope I'm wrong...sort of.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Have posted this request a couple of times....but do any of you mets and/or serious amateurs have a winter outlook specific to our region to share? Needless to say, I'm particulalry interested in the Southern Tier of NYS. Starting to get the feeling that..... Well, this November is likely to be the warmest on record in Binghamton or at least top 3. I have looked at the average temperatures for Dec-Jan-Feb that followed the top 5 warmest Novembers since 1951 and 4 out of 5 were mild DJF periods. Only 1 was near normal and that was in the 60s when the climate was a bit colder. So I give it a 60-70% chance of being a mild winter with less snow. La Nina pattern and lack of blocking so far in the North Atlantic plus a screaming north Pacific jet is killing the early part of the cold season. I think the best we can hope for is a 3-4 week period of cold and snow and one big snowstorm. That's my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Warmest / least snowy winter in many years on the way...let's be Thankful for that. You younger people will understand this someday. George / LEK - we're going to be sub 100" for a change...so be it. I think the periods we do get winter - Feb/Mar will be enjoyable for us! Take care all...hope I'm wrong...sort of.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Well, this November is likely to be the warmest on record in Binghamton or at least top 3. I have looked at the average temperatures for Dec-Jan-Feb that followed the top 5 warmest Novembers since 1951 and 4 out of 5 were mild DJF periods. Only 1 was near normal and that was in the 60s when the climate was a bit colder. So I give it a 60-70% chance of being a mild winter with less snow. La Nina pattern and lack of blocking so far in the North Atlantic plus a screaming north Pacific jet is killing the early part of the cold season. I think the best we can hope for is a 3-4 week period of cold and snow and one big snowstorm. That's my 2 cents. Your thoughts match what I've been thinking for the past month or so. It is very rare in our region for a mild snowless November to be followed by a cold winter. Even 2006 had a chilly October while this year's October was a totch. We've had a mild October and November, making this Fall even milder than 2006 heading into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Above normal temperatures expected in southern Ontario and Quebec this winter according to the Weather Network. Couldn't be more different from the official accuweather forecast http://www.theweathe...page_topstories Also, Brett Anderson of accuweather says the latest Euro weeklies show the torch continuing through mid December at least. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-clues-through-christmas/58307 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 I dunno about Toronto, but above normal temperatures could mean more snow in Ottawa. Above normal temperatures expected in southern Ontario and Quebec this winter according to the Weather Network. Couldn't be more different from the official accuweather forecast http://www.theweathe...page_topstories Also, Brett Anderson of accuweather says the latest Euro weeklies show the torch continuing through mid December at least. http://www.accuweath...christmas/58307 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 2 to 4 inches of snow predicted for Tupelo, MS tonight. Just saying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 We will get our Snow. For us near the lake, more warmer temperatures for Oct, Nov, Early Dec= Warmer Lake+Probability of colder temperatures= More snow. Those who rely upon synoptic storms, sorry! The storms will come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I dunno about Toronto, but above normal temperatures could mean more snow in Ottawa. Yeah, it could given their normals by late December are in the low 20s as opposed to low 30s in Hogtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah, it could given their normals by late December are in the low 20s as opposed to low 30s in Hogtown. how many nicknames does toronto have? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 We will get our Snow. For us near the lake, more warmer temperatures for Oct, Nov, Early Dec= Warmer Lake+Probability of colder temperatures= More snow. Those who rely upon synoptic storms, sorry! The storms will come! Not picking on you, but I hear folks say this alot - "We're gonna get a ton of snow this winter b/c the fall has been so mild and Lake Erie is warmer than normal...". Sure, if we get a flip to a colder pattern with dynamic systems moving through, the warmer lake could increase lake effect snow totals. But if we stay in this warmer than average pattern with glancing shots of cold air, even in Dec/Jan, the lake effect machine will largely stay dormant. I would assume a pattern like we're in with warmer lakes is more likely to produce a single blockbuster event later in the wiinter in a relatively isolated area, vs. prolific seasonal snow totals for the snow belts. Think Dec 2001 when BUF had the mega lake effect storm in an otherwise dismal snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I would take 1 huge storm over 10+ 5 inch events anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I would take 1 huge storm over 10+ 5 inch events anyday. me too me too. I'd kill for Dec of 01' repeat. Gimme one storm like that and I wouldn't be a bit sad if not one flake fell the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 There's some hope in the December 6th to 10th time frame...we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 There's some hope in the December 6th to 10th time frame...we'll see how it plays out. Another southtowns special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Another southtowns special? lol...well I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the gfs wind direction at 180 hours...but I think someone should get a good deal of snow in the time frame I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 You shouldn't be excited. WSW winds= South Towns not the city. I didn't think this event was going to occur...but this isn't really true. It's a misconception since everyone talks about SW winds...but the real low-level wind that favors Buffalo is WSW. SW winds (225) put the band into southern Ontario. Buffalo metro is 245-255...definitely WSW. The surface wind tends to be more backed than mean sigma wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 whoops...I made a mistake...Buffalo's latest measurable snowfall is Dec. 3rd 1899...not Dec. 8th 2001. While there was no snowfall whatsoever in Nov. 2001...there was measurable snowfall in October 2001. It appears likely that we will break that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 how many nicknames does toronto have? ?? T dot, Hogtown (that one dates from the 19th century I think) and the Big Smoke are the ones I know of. Of course there's also the centre of the universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 rain pounding down here in the Big Smoke. Has been all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 65F here in Ithaca with rain. April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Hounds of Winter about to howl MAJOR LAKE EFFECT ATTACK EARLY NEXT WEEK, SECOND STRONGER SHOT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER 3 hours ago 65F here in Ithaca with rain. April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Hounds of Winter about to howl MAJOR LAKE EFFECT ATTACK EARLY NEXT WEEK, SECOND STRONGER SHOT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER 3 hours ago NWS Buf mentioned it on their long range afd.."BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS FORECAST TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT -12C. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MUCH COLDER AIR AND WHAT APPEARS AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE TO BE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS IS STILL DAY 7 HOWEVER SO ANY IDEAS ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE UNKNOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Don Paul Channel 4 Met: At this point, I’m not overly impressed with the snow potential on Tuesday. That’s in the sense of what’s indicated as a mostly NWly boundary lyr flow and limited moisture. Right now, I think there’ll be some snow showers and possibly some LES. It will be cold enough. But at this distant vantage point, the setup is looking far from ideal for anything very significant anywhere near the metro area. There’ll probably be a little moderation behind this short wave by Thursday, but there are signs in the ensembles of another shot of colder air returning by the 9-10 for a couple of days. Essentially, tonight I have to stand by virtually everything I’ve already posted yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Getting some intermittent graupel/snow/rain showers with strong westerly surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That lake-effect threat later next week is starting to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What's with the models/ensembles flip flopping all over the place and showing zero consistency? I'm not even looking forward to anything beyond 2 days. Weather forecasting is digressing, let alone advancing in this day and age of modern technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Dusting of snow last night to start December off on the right foot. Doesn't look like much is coming for awhile but it is barely December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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