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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Warmest / least snowy winter in many years on the way...let's be Thankful for that. You younger people will understand this someday. George / LEK - we're going to be sub 100" for a change...so be it. I think the periods we do get winter - Feb/Mar will be enjoyable for us! Take care all...hope I'm wrong...sort of....;)

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Have posted this request a couple of times....but do any of you mets and/or serious amateurs have a winter outlook specific to our region to share? Needless to say, I'm particulalry interested in the Southern Tier of NYS. Starting to get the feeling that.....

Well, this November is likely to be the warmest on record in Binghamton or at least top 3. I have looked at the average temperatures for Dec-Jan-Feb that followed

the top 5 warmest Novembers since 1951 and 4 out of 5 were mild DJF periods. Only 1 was near normal and that was in the 60s when the climate was a bit colder. So

I give it a 60-70% chance of being a mild winter with less snow. La Nina pattern and lack of blocking so far in the North Atlantic plus a screaming

north Pacific jet is killing the early part of the cold season. I think the best we can hope for is a 3-4 week period of cold and snow and one

big snowstorm. That's my 2 cents.

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Warmest / least snowy winter in many years on the way...let's be Thankful for that. You younger people will understand this someday. George / LEK - we're going to be sub 100" for a change...so be it. I think the periods we do get winter - Feb/Mar will be enjoyable for us! Take care all...hope I'm wrong...sort of....;)

:weep:

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Well, this November is likely to be the warmest on record in Binghamton or at least top 3. I have looked at the average temperatures for Dec-Jan-Feb that followed

the top 5 warmest Novembers since 1951 and 4 out of 5 were mild DJF periods. Only 1 was near normal and that was in the 60s when the climate was a bit colder. So

I give it a 60-70% chance of being a mild winter with less snow. La Nina pattern and lack of blocking so far in the North Atlantic plus a screaming

north Pacific jet is killing the early part of the cold season. I think the best we can hope for is a 3-4 week period of cold and snow and one

big snowstorm. That's my 2 cents.

Your thoughts match what I've been thinking for the past month or so. It is very rare in our region for a mild snowless November to be followed by a cold winter. Even 2006 had a chilly October while this year's October was a totch. We've had a mild October and November, making this Fall even milder than 2006 heading into December.

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Above normal temperatures expected in southern Ontario and Quebec this winter according to the Weather Network. Couldn't be more different from the official accuweather forecast

http://www.theweathe...page_topstories

Also, Brett Anderson of accuweather says the latest Euro weeklies show the torch continuing through mid December at least.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-clues-through-christmas/58307

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I dunno about Toronto, but above normal temperatures could mean more snow in Ottawa.

Above normal temperatures expected in southern Ontario and Quebec this winter according to the Weather Network. Couldn't be more different from the official accuweather forecast

http://www.theweathe...page_topstories

Also, Brett Anderson of accuweather says the latest Euro weeklies show the torch continuing through mid December at least.

http://www.accuweath...christmas/58307

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We will get our Snow. For us near the lake, more warmer temperatures for Oct, Nov, Early Dec= Warmer Lake+Probability of colder temperatures= More snow. Those who rely upon synoptic storms, sorry! The storms will come! :thumbsup:

Not picking on you, but I hear folks say this alot - "We're gonna get a ton of snow this winter b/c the fall has been so mild and Lake Erie is warmer than normal...". Sure, if we get a flip to a colder pattern with dynamic systems moving through, the warmer lake could increase lake effect snow totals. But if we stay in this warmer than average pattern with glancing shots of cold air, even in Dec/Jan, the lake effect machine will largely stay dormant. I would assume a pattern like we're in with warmer lakes is more likely to produce a single blockbuster event later in the wiinter in a relatively isolated area, vs. prolific seasonal snow totals for the snow belts. Think Dec 2001 when BUF had the mega lake effect storm in an otherwise dismal snow season.

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You shouldn't be excited. WSW winds= South Towns not the city.

I didn't think this event was going to occur...but this isn't really true. It's a misconception since everyone talks about SW winds...but the real low-level wind that favors Buffalo is WSW. SW winds (225) put the band into southern Ontario. Buffalo metro is 245-255...definitely WSW. The surface wind tends to be more backed than mean sigma wind.

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BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Hounds of Winter about to howl MAJOR LAKE EFFECT ATTACK EARLY NEXT WEEK, SECOND STRONGER SHOT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER 3 hours ago

NWS Buf mentioned it on their long range afd.."BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE

PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS

ACROSS THE WEST AND A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT

LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS FORECAST TO DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF

THE SEASON SO FAR WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850MB TEMPS

DOWN TO ABOUT -12C. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY PRODUCE

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MUCH COLDER AIR AND

WHAT APPEARS AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE TO BE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW MAY

SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS IS STILL DAY 7

HOWEVER SO ANY IDEAS ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW

WILL BE UNKNOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH

A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE"

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Don Paul Channel 4 Met:

At this point, I’m not overly impressed with the snow potential on Tuesday. That’s in the sense of what’s indicated as a mostly NWly boundary lyr flow and limited moisture. Right now, I think there’ll be some snow showers and possibly some LES. It will be cold enough. But at this distant vantage point, the setup is looking far from ideal for anything very significant anywhere near the metro area. There’ll probably be a little moderation behind this short wave by Thursday, but there are signs in the ensembles of another shot of colder air returning by the 9-10 for a couple of days. Essentially, tonight I have to stand by virtually everything I’ve already posted yesterday and today.

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