OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That would appear to be the most eastern model tonight? Correct? yeah...but im not sure it matters all that much. The low is still stretched out to the northwest. The 500mb heights are actually higher over New England on the Euro compared to the gfs but maybe the shortwave isn't quite as sharp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Anyone wanna take a trip to mount rainier? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.85455653885574&lon=-121.77314758300781&site=sew&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Anyone wanna take a trip to mount rainier? http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text 111"-155" in matter of days, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 goodnight yall,hope to wake up to a nice wx advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans 4:41 AM EST Tuesday 27 December 2011 Snowfall warning for Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans upgraded from Winter storm watch Heavy snow tonight. A developing low over Kentucky will track northeast along the Appalachians today and intensify as it tracks into Southern Quebec tonight. In advance of this system precipitation mainly in the form of light rain will spread into Eastern Ontario this afternoon. As the low intensifies the rain will change into heavy wet snow in the evening. Before the snow ends Wednesday morning general total snowfall amounts of up to 15 cm are possible. Near the St Lawrence river Valley the amounts may be reduced somewhat as the change over to snow will occur later in the evening. The highest amounts are expected near the Quebec border where snowfall may possibly exceed 15 cm. In addition, as the low moves into Quebec, a sharp Arctic cold front will cross the area overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. The much colder air behind the front means that temperatures will drop sharply from near zero to well below freezing in a matter of hours. While this may result in some slippery surfaces it is unlikely that widespread flash freeze conditions will occur as too much snow will have fallen. In any case, the combination of the snowfall and plummeting temperatures will make for a difficult Wednesday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 gonna be a tight squeeze with this storm across NNY and S. Canada definitely has some things working against it 1. intial warm air at surface 2. time to get going limits the duration on the other hand, tomorrow evening could be a very dynamic period with heavy precip somewhere near or N of the st lawrence seaway. pretty much every model has (except the euro) introduced mixed precip and rain into the montreal area, as the storm passes near or just slightly E of the city. that will limit accums. at the same time, initial precip could even start off as mix/rain for most of eastern ontario including ottawa for the first few hours, before switching over to snow and staying that way (GEM/SREFS suggest this possiblity) it will be key to see how much surface warmth occurs tomorrow early in the day, and how quickly the cold air can come in from the NW, at the current time i noticed its balmy back across N ontario.....also must consider the seasonal trend of surface warmth wedging in all season...on the + we do have the fresh snow blanket that may help tomorrow during the day perhaps a slight bit. the WV is looking pretty impressive this evening, so perhaps this storm can get fired up on time or perhaps slightly faster and stronger than modeled, again something to watch tomorrow. based on these moving parts, i think it is best to go conservative at this time, i would go 3-6 inches / 7-15cm in montreal but more if the ECM is correct i think this zone of lower accums may now extend S of ottawa down the St. lawrence to KMSS-cornwall, as again the models continue to nudge the warmth N and W run by run. 4-8 inches / 10-20cm in ottawa areas just to the E of ottawa by 30 miles/50km and extending to areas NE of the ottawa river into quebec province and N of montreal like st jerome, 6-10 inches / 15-25cm with localized amounts to 12 inches / 30cm in the ski areas like tremblant mixed precip and FRZRA is a distinct possibilty in montreal and along the st.lawrence at the height of the storm, and other than the euro, a period of rain would also be a factor there after the snow. again, will have to keep an eye on how things develop during the overnight and into tomorrow. all the models vary enough on the snow/mixed/rain boundaries across the area, that its a medium confidence forecast at this time. Great analisys as always OL. Let the games begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Good luck to you guys up north,it looks mostly rain here with only 1-2" falling per the nws.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 19 cold degrees here now.... and it's useless to me. LOL Good luck to you guys up north,it looks mostly rain here with only 1-2" falling per the nws.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 19 cold degrees here now.... and it's useless to me. LOL wow you got cold with clouds and a south wind overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The temperature at YOW has dropped from 32f to 28f in the last hour and a half.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks like 1-3" for BUF as the westward trend continues. If it could go 25 to 50 miles to the east Wed be in great shape. Looks to be another disappointment for us here. The only glimmer of hope I have is if u look at a national mosiac of radars the center of the storm looks to be going a bit east of projected. Maybe its just me trying to find a reason to get more than an inch or two :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Same here, about 20 at my house with a heavy scraping needed on the cars. Since I was too far NW for anything heavy in October, I'm not sure the town's even needed to send the trucks out for a light salting this season, haha. 19 cold degrees here now.... and it's useless to me. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Fwiw 12z NAM is PERFECT for BUF. Storm is about 25 to 50 miles east if the 06z run. Low track right up to ROC putting us right in the deformation zone. Especially from BUF northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 19 cold degrees here now.... and it's useless to me. LOL wow i cant believe how cold you are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Holy Garnet Mica Schist Batman....now that's a forecast. Hope everyone had a great holiday. I'm rooting for someone in our forum to get something good out of this one. Good luck to all. 111"-155" in matter of days, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 12Z GFS is warm and west. NAM isn't so bad. Well, at least I'm saving on heating costs this winter and I apparently picked a good year to have a per event snowplow contract at my shop........of course I'd rather be poor with the green stuff and rich with the white. 37F here now down the mountain from Logan11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Great analisys as always OL. Let the games begin Best of luck to you guys up in Ottawa! Looks like the winter is finally cranking up for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Already snowing here, which I didn't think it was supposed to until tonight. About 0.25" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The temperature at YOW has dropped from 32f to 28f in the last hour and a half.... so far the valley is doing a good job of hanging on.....the temp is 0C now, but the DP remains around -3C......will be interesting to see your obs later this evening, i think you may be in a prime spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 It's 32.7 here now ...not that it really matters. I saw Andy on channel 10 just now for the first time. Looking good. 12Z GFS is warm and west. NAM isn't so bad. Well, at least I'm saving on heating costs this winter and I apparently picked a good year to have a per event snowplow contract at my shop........of course I'd rather be poor with the green stuff and rich with the white. 37F here now down the mountain from Logan11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Best of luck to you guys up in Ottawa! Looks like the winter is finally cranking up for you guys! thanks OB, you are missed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 KELZ has started as snow I see. Already snowing here, which I didn't think it was supposed to until tonight. About 0.25" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Excellent banding over YOW this evening on the 12Z NAM.. Have fun! so far the valley is doing a good job of hanging on.....the temp is 0C now, but the DP remains around -3C......will be interesting to see your obs later this evening, i think you may be in a prime spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Excellent banding over YOW this evening on the 12Z NAM.. Have fun! yeah this thing keeps nudging NW and now the ottawa valley is in the prime spot 'smell the rain' position. that screws MTL though for the most part, but as we talked about, you could see the writing on the wall for them for a few days now. i'm gonna update my forecast after i see the euro, last nights euro remained the sole easterly outlier and more disorganized and colder even for MTL ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sleet/rain mix here in the valley and light snow at elevation. Just what we need more water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 so far the valley is doing a good job of hanging on.....the temp is 0C now, but the DP remains around -3C......will be interesting to see your obs later this evening, i think you may be in a prime spot! that made me thanks OB, you are missed... Yes you are OB....time to start thinking about relocating 450 kms NE Excellent banding over YOW this evening on the 12Z NAM.. Have fun! This time the kids are actually more exited than i am lol....should be fun! yeah this thing keeps nudging NW and now the ottawa valley is in the prime spot 'smell the rain' position. that screws MTL though for the most part, but as we talked about, you could see the writing on the wall for them for a few days now. i'm gonna update my forecast after i see the euro, last nights euro remained the sole easterly outlier and more disorganized and colder even for MTL ... OL, last time I "smelled the rain" I enede up with 19 inches..... One can dream...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sloppy mix of rain and snow in the ROC right now, I really didnt expect to see that. I think this was just some teaser evaporational cooling though, we should transition to all rain shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Decent steady snow here as well.. Only very light rain at the onset around lunchtime... Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Very steady rain snow mix here in cheektowaga has flipped to mostly snow already. Very nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Very steady rain snow mix here in cheektowaga has flipped to mostly snow already. Very nice surprise it's pouring rain outside .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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