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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans

4:41 AM EST Tuesday 27 December 2011

Snowfall warning for

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans upgraded from Winter storm watch

Heavy snow tonight.

A developing low over Kentucky will track northeast along the Appalachians today and intensify as it tracks into Southern Quebec tonight. In advance of this system precipitation mainly in the form of light rain will spread into Eastern Ontario this afternoon. As the low intensifies the rain will change into heavy wet snow in the evening. Before the snow ends Wednesday morning general total snowfall amounts of up to 15 cm are possible. Near the St Lawrence river Valley the amounts may be reduced somewhat as the change over to snow will occur later in the evening. The highest amounts are expected near the Quebec border where snowfall may possibly exceed 15 cm.

In addition, as the low moves into Quebec, a sharp Arctic cold front will cross the area overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. The much colder air behind the front means that temperatures will drop sharply from near zero to well below freezing in a matter of hours. While this may result in some slippery surfaces it is unlikely that widespread flash freeze conditions will occur as too much snow will have fallen. In any case, the combination of the snowfall and plummeting temperatures will make for a difficult Wednesday morning commute.

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gonna be a tight squeeze with this storm across NNY and S. Canada

definitely has some things working against it

1. intial warm air at surface

2. time to get going limits the duration

on the other hand, tomorrow evening could be a very dynamic period with heavy precip somewhere near or N of the st lawrence seaway.

pretty much every model has (except the euro) introduced mixed precip and rain into the montreal area, as the storm passes near or just slightly E of the city. that will limit accums.

at the same time, initial precip could even start off as mix/rain for most of eastern ontario including ottawa for the first few hours, before switching over to snow and staying that way (GEM/SREFS suggest this possiblity)

it will be key to see how much surface warmth occurs tomorrow early in the day, and how quickly the cold air can come in from the NW, at the current time i noticed its balmy back across N ontario.....also must consider the seasonal trend of surface warmth wedging in all season...on the + we do have the fresh snow blanket that may help tomorrow during the day perhaps a slight bit.

the WV is looking pretty impressive this evening, so perhaps this storm can get fired up on time or perhaps slightly faster and stronger than modeled, again something to watch tomorrow.

based on these moving parts, i think it is best to go conservative at this time, i would go

3-6 inches / 7-15cm in montreal but more if the ECM is correct

i think this zone of lower accums may now extend S of ottawa down the St. lawrence to KMSS-cornwall, as again the models continue to nudge the warmth N and W run by run.

4-8 inches / 10-20cm in ottawa

areas just to the E of ottawa by 30 miles/50km and extending to areas NE of the ottawa river into quebec province and N of montreal like st jerome, 6-10 inches / 15-25cm with localized amounts to 12 inches / 30cm in the ski areas like tremblant

mixed precip and FRZRA is a distinct possibilty in montreal and along the st.lawrence at the height of the storm, and other than the euro, a period of rain would also be a factor there after the snow.

again, will have to keep an eye on how things develop during the overnight and into tomorrow. all the models vary enough on the snow/mixed/rain boundaries across the area, that its a medium confidence forecast at this time.

Great analisys as always OL. Let the games begin :snowing:

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Looks like 1-3" for BUF as the westward trend continues. If it could go 25 to 50 miles to the east Wed be in great shape. Looks to be another disappointment for us here. The only glimmer of hope I have is if u look at a national mosiac of radars the center of the storm looks to be going a bit east of projected. Maybe its just me trying to find a reason to get more than an inch or two :/

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Same here, about 20 at my house with a heavy scraping needed on the cars. Since I was too far NW for anything heavy in October, I'm not sure the town's even needed to send the trucks out for a light salting this season, haha.

19 cold degrees here now.... and it's useless to me. LOL

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12Z GFS is warm and west. NAM isn't so bad. Well, at least I'm saving on heating costs this winter and I apparently picked a good year to have a per event snowplow contract at my shop........of course I'd rather be poor with the green stuff and rich with the white.

37F here now down the mountain from Logan11.

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It's 32.7 here now ...not that it really matters.

I saw Andy on channel 10 just now for the first time. Looking good. :)

12Z GFS is warm and west. NAM isn't so bad. Well, at least I'm saving on heating costs this winter and I apparently picked a good year to have a per event snowplow contract at my shop........of course I'd rather be poor with the green stuff and rich with the white.

37F here now down the mountain from Logan11.

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Excellent banding over YOW this evening on the 12Z NAM.. Have fun!

yeah this thing keeps nudging NW and now the ottawa valley is in the prime spot 'smell the rain' position. that screws MTL though for the most part, but as we talked about, you could see the writing on the wall for them for a few days now.

i'm gonna update my forecast after i see the euro, last nights euro remained the sole easterly outlier and more disorganized and colder even for MTL ...

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so far the valley is doing a good job of hanging on.....the temp is 0C now, but the DP remains around

-3C......will be interesting to see your obs later this evening, i think you may be in a prime spot!

that made me :D

thanks OB, you are missed...

Yes you are OB....time to start thinking about relocating 450 kms NE ;)

Excellent banding over YOW this evening on the 12Z NAM.. Have fun!

This time the kids are actually more exited than i am lol....should be fun!

yeah this thing keeps nudging NW and now the ottawa valley is in the prime spot 'smell the rain' position. that screws MTL though for the most part, but as we talked about, you could see the writing on the wall for them for a few days now.

i'm gonna update my forecast after i see the euro, last nights euro remained the sole easterly outlier and more disorganized and colder even for MTL ...

OL, last time I "smelled the rain" I enede up with 19 inches..... One can dream......

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