ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 you have to adjust your standards moving away from ottawa, for a winther enthusiast that is a tough deal to be sure....just will take time to get used to things eventually. toronto can still score some very nice storms, i remember the winter of 07-08 they had a couple that ended up bigger than in ottawa. that was a great winter in terms of synoptic storms for wny area,i believe we had that one storm that dumped 1-2 ft for the whole area@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that was a great winter in terms of synoptic storms for wny area,i believe we had that one storm that dumped 1-2 ft for the whole area@! March 2008 right?Remember the kickass start to lake effect in the 08-09 season especally for "ski country". Some places had nearly 100" halfway through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm loving the GFS track, the NAM seems a tad to far west for my liking. Either way I think a general 3-5 inch Accumulation over most of WNY "IF" the changeover occurs as models are predicting. If not, then 1-3 inches. 4-6 is definitely possibly for elevations above 1000-1500 feet. In addition to the cold NW flow behind the system aiding in moisture from Erie/Huron/Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 My favorite winter was the one prior to the 7 feet of snow. It got off to a quick start with back to back LES events. First came the 25 inches in Nov of 2000 followed by another 15 inches the next week. This was followed by more 4-6 events one after another. All the while staying under 32 degrees from Nov into Dec. I made a HUGE snow castle, I actually had to much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm loving the GFS track, the NAM seems a tad to far west for my liking. Either way I think a general 3-5 inch Accumulation over most of WNY "IF" the changeover occurs as models are predicting. If not, then 1-3 inches. 4-6 is definitely possibly for elevations above 1000-1500 feet. In addition to the cold NW flow behind the system aiding in moisture from Erie/Huron/Ontario. I think that sounds good at this point. I think IF (HUGE and unlikley if, but if) we can get a bit early changeover and we can get whatever deformation zone there is to come over us plus some lake enhancement/effect from the low as it pulls away I could see a few spots on the Niagara Frointier even hitting 6 inches. 8" may not be out of the realm of possibility for places like Ellicottville or Perrysburg above 1800 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 My favorite winter was the one prior to the 7 feet of snow. It got off to a quick start with back to back LES events. First came the 25 inches in Nov of 2000 followed by another 15 inches the next week. This was followed by more 4-6 events one after another. All the while staying under 32 degrees from Nov into Dec. I made a HUGE snow castle, I actually had to much snow. We had a nice stretch of northtowns LES events back then,not so many this days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think that sounds good at this point. I think IF (HUGE and unlikley if, but if) we can get a bit early changeover and we can get whatever deformation zone there is to come over us plus some lake enhancement/effect from the low as it pulls away I could see a few spots on the Niagara Frointier even hitting 6 inches. 8" may not be out of the realm of possibility for places like Ellicottville or Perrysburg above 1800 ft. that'ts what my weenie side is thinking@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 We had a nice stretch of northtowns LES events back then,not so many this days.. Thought the same thing when I looked at the NWS BUF LES Archive the other day. I thought "man were we lucky back then to get so many SW flow events"... They just seemed to line up one after another now we can't seem to get one except for once a year if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that'ts what my weenie side is thinking@! That was my weenie side coming out too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Good luck everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 wow at the gfs...really amped up. Closes the 700mb low over BUF...very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 wow at the gfs...really amped up. Closes the 700mb low over BUF...very nice. Whats your opinion for BUF? It'd be nice to hear from a met about BUF instead of all of us "weenies" speculating lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That was my weenie side coming out too check this out http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=e&ext=swt&type=N&hr=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 gonna be a tight squeeze with this storm across NNY and S. Canada definitely has some things working against it 1. intial warm air at surface 2. time to get going limits the duration on the other hand, tomorrow evening could be a very dynamic period with heavy precip somewhere near or N of the st lawrence seaway. pretty much every model has (except the euro) introduced mixed precip and rain into the montreal area, as the storm passes near or just slightly E of the city. that will limit accums. at the same time, initial precip could even start off as mix/rain for most of eastern ontario including ottawa for the first few hours, before switching over to snow and staying that way (GEM/SREFS suggest this possiblity) it will be key to see how much surface warmth occurs tomorrow early in the day, and how quickly the cold air can come in from the NW, at the current time i noticed its balmy back across N ontario.....also must consider the seasonal trend of surface warmth wedging in all season...on the + we do have the fresh snow blanket that may help tomorrow during the day perhaps a slight bit. the WV is looking pretty impressive this evening, so perhaps this storm can get fired up on time or perhaps slightly faster and stronger than modeled, again something to watch tomorrow. based on these moving parts, i think it is best to go conservative at this time, i would go 3-6 inches / 7-15cm in montreal but more if the ECM is correct i think this zone of lower accums may now extend S of ottawa down the St. lawrence to KMSS-cornwall, as again the models continue to nudge the warmth N and W run by run. 4-8 inches / 10-20cm in ottawa areas just to the E of ottawa by 30 miles/50km and extending to areas NE of the ottawa river into quebec province and N of montreal like st jerome, 6-10 inches / 15-25cm with localized amounts to 12 inches / 30cm in the ski areas like tremblant mixed precip and FRZRA is a distinct possibilty in montreal and along the st.lawrence at the height of the storm, and other than the euro, a period of rain would also be a factor there after the snow. again, will have to keep an eye on how things develop during the overnight and into tomorrow. all the models vary enough on the snow/mixed/rain boundaries across the area, that its a medium confidence forecast at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Whats your opinion for BUF? It'd be nice to hear from a met about BUF instead of all of us "weenies" speculating lol. I like the trends today...I'd bet the euro comes in more amped tonight given the gfs and the nam both going that way at 18z and 00z. We may have to deal with a bit of more rain in the beginning given the westerly track but we also get into heavier snow since the low is further west and the system is closing off further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I like the trends today...I'd bet the euro comes in more amped tonight given the gfs and the nam both going that way at 18z and 00z. We may have to deal with a bit of more rain in the beginning given the westerly track but we also get into heavier snow since the low is further west and the system is closing off further south. A little more rain in the beginning for a little more snow at the end would be perfectly fine with me. I'd rather have more QPF in general then have the storm be 300 miles east and were cold but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Seems like KBUF is being pretty cautious ...only saying 1-3" out there. Cold here now ..21F ...It's always cold here when it doesn't matter. that'ts what my weenie side is thinking@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its not too often we see so many WNY posts for synoptic "events", its good to see. I wish we could get more events where both WNY and ENY can share in it, but simple geography/climotology usually prevent it. Seems like KBUF is being pretty cautious ...only saying 1-3" out there. Cold here now ..21F ...It's always cold here when it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 21z SREFs are highlighting a greater than 90% chance of 1"+ across the Niagara Frontier and the Western Southern Tier but only about a 15-25% chance of 4" or greater snows. They still might be playing a little catch up to the more amped up 00z NAM and GFS solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 21z SREFs are highlighting a greater than 90% chance of 1"+ across the Niagara Frontier and the Western Southern Tier but only about a 15-25% chance of 4" or greater snows. They still might be playing a little catch up to the more amped up 00z NAM and GFS solutions. they look warm also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Pretty rare...sometimes with clippers ...such as the possible event out around h96-108 on the GFS. Its not too often we see so many WNY posts for synoptic "events", its good to see. I wish we could get more events where both WNY and ENY can share in it, but simple geography/climotology usually prevent it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 here is the 0z ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS has all snow modeled in BUF..but it looks little funny at the onset with a 100-150mb deep above freezing layer...but still showing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NAM has 1" hr. type snows for a few hours in BUF in the developing comma head. GFS is more like 1/2"-3/4"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NAM has 1" hr. type snows for a few hours in BUF in the developing comma head. GFS is more like 1/2"-3/4"/hr. Not sure if nws buf is buying it,here is their latest update,, OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH MORNING SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVING TO VFR. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY...VFR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NAM has 1" hr. type snows for a few hours in BUF in the developing comma head. GFS is more like 1/2"-3/4"/hr. Hell if the NAM is right i could see more snow in a few hours than ive seen all winter so far. Even in 6 hours on the GFS. For this winter 1/2" an hour rates would be like 2" an hour in a normal year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Not sure if nws buf is buying it,here is their latest update,, the disco sounds pretty optimistic. They haven't seen the new model runs yet, either. Idk...I mean I'd probably forecast 1-3" right now for BUF, too. There's still a lot that can go wrong. The pattern is so bad that the NAM is kinda like a perfect solution...but a slight change and it's blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the disco sounds pretty optimistic. They haven't seen the new model runs yet, either. Idk...I mean I'd probably forecast 1-3" right now for BUF, too. There's still a lot that can go wrong. The pattern is so bad that the NAM is kinda like a perfect solution...but a slight change and it's blah. 2-4" For BUF is my unprofessional opinion but if it goes wrong we could land up with a slushy inch but if things go right we could land up with 6. What a mess for those poor NWS forecasters. Good luck and goodnight.! Let's hope everything still looks good in the am. Literally just 25 or 50 miles east or west could make or break how much snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 euro has a 995mb low near Philly @ 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 euro has a 995mb low near Philly @ 24 hours. That would appear to be the most eastern model tonight? Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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