Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 That's extremely optimistic to be saying 2-4" in our zones... Good luck to them. kalb http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 yeah i agree the lack of cold air has been the killer, not so much tracks.. again i am optimistic now that a blanket of snow is being laid down just to your northover the past week, that should barring a big torch, persist all season after the storm tomorrow, and help with cold supply, at least somewhat, well it can hurt LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 That was this morning's AFD, didnt realize models have trended even farther west There afternoon AFD will be different story lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I am so friggin sick of the warm during a storm and cold enough for snow after it passes. I would not be so frustrated with the pattern if half the winter was not pissed away on rain storms. The real frustration is not knowing if it's going to be like this until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The winter of 80-81 was thankless like this....once past the bitter cold period around Christmas. But at least that year it seemed like we started a lot of them with snow...only to turn to a deluge over and over again. History tends to repeat somewhat I guess. I am so friggin sick of the warm during a storm and cold enough for snow after it passes. I would not be so frustrated with the pattern if half the winter was not pissed away on rain storms. The real frustration is not knowing if it's going to be like this until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 I think the 18 NAM capitulated some toward the Euro. The surface low is so poor on the NAM and broad, but some kind of center passes pretty close to here, not SYR. The bottom line on the NAM is the precip is associated with the upper trough and the surface low is weak, broad, somewhat irrelevant until it gets quite far north. Not even sure how much snow anyone would get with the NAM - such a narrow ribbon of it and so marginal temp-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I think the 18 NAM capitulated some toward the Euro. The surface low is so poor on the NAM and broad, but some kind of center passes pretty close to here, not SYR. The bottom line on the NAM is the precip is associated with the upper trough and the surface low is weak, broad, somewhat irrelevant until it gets quite far north. Not even sure how much snow anyone would get with the NAM - such a narrow ribbon of it and so marginal temp-wise. 18z nam Gives Both buf and roc 6",2" for syr and 0" for alb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z gfs looks a tad east compared to its 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z NAM verbatim has about 5 inches tomorrow into Wednesday and another 5 inches later this week for BUF. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KBUF&model=nam&time=2011122618&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 latest SREFs/RGEM/NAM are toasty for montreal area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 latest SREFs/RGEM/NAM are toasty for montreal area 15z sref looks warm for buf,only 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z NAM verbatim has about 5 inches tomorrow into Wednesday and another 5 inches later this week for BUF. http://coolwx.com/cg...2618&field=prec Actually the bufkit one shows 8.7",butttt its the nam@84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 interesting that Env Canada is going with the flash freeze angle in that special statement. that means they think the cold air is really going to pour into the backside, because they don't issue flash freeze statements just for fun. I'm driving up to Muskoka on Wednesday. Always wanted to see Muskoka in the winter. Looksl ike they could get 6" of snow up there out of this tomorrow. Fresh snow cover should look good in the sunshine on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm honestly not expecting much out of this in Toronto. Mainly rain, followed by some sloppy wet snow in the evening that may accumulate on grassy surfaces. This is just not Toronto's winter. Never really is mind you but hisi s bad even by Toronto standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Well I hope you guys do well. I don't have any horse in it since it's hopeless over here. It will interesting to track anyway. Actually the bufkit one shows 8.7",butttt its the nam@84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 wow i just checked the website, and this is truly devestating news. i hope we arent going to lose snow depth measurements, but i am fearful. you are right, ottawa is probably one of the very best in north america at snow data. i can tell you by visual inspection that here in barrhaven, there was about 7-9cm (3-3.5inches) of snow yesterday, i saw the almanac recorded 8.6mm of precip, which i thought would translate into much more snow since it was a clipper type..... but i just shoveled and the snow was a bit wetter and less fluffier than typical clipper snows, so i think my estimate is pretty good. really really upset about this new though. OL, I found another station that is still recording both temperature data and snow depth. Ottawa CDA, which has been collecting data for well over 100 years. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4333&dlyRange=1889-11-01|2011-12-22&Year=2011&Month=12&Day=01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Hope everyone had a good Christmas! Had a few small piles of snow grains on the grill yesterday morning...a Christmas miracle! Looks like maybe a shot for some of you WNY folks for some light accumulation tomorrow night...then hopes for a white New Year's hinges on a clipper system towards Friday. Feel like there's been a bit of a lack of decent clippers the last couple years...would be nice if it worked out...but models seem to overdo these things more often then not. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Kalb updated AFD BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE WITH THE STORMTRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME. PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE SHOULD BE MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT A NARROW AND BRIEF ZONE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. SO... INDICATING RAIN AND SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPES UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...LOWER 30S IN THESOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT AS THE STORM BEGINS TO DEPART TOWARD SUNRISE. SNOW TOTALS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT NO HEADLINES NEEDED UNTIL QPF...AREAS AND TIMING OF SNOW A BIT CLEARER. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 0z nam is trending west.. 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the 0z canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 My thinking... I believe the higher terrain south of BUF will see more due to obviously their higher elevation which means cooler temps which means more snow. I think E Niagara and Orleans counties will see more due to some lake enhancement off of Ontario. The only reason I have Allegheny county in 2-4" is because the will likley see a bit less precip and warmer temps since they are a bit further east. For the "Major cities" heres my prediction: BUF: 3.5" ROC:3.0" JHW: 4.5" NIA: 3.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 My thinking... I believe the higher terrain south of BUF will see more due to obviously their higher elevation which means cooler temps which means more snow. I think E Niagara and Orleans counties will see more due to some lake enhancement off of Ontario. The only reason I have Allegheny county in 2-4" is because the will likley see a bit less precip and warmer temps since they are a bit further east. For the "Major cities" heres my prediction: BUF: 3.5" ROC:3.0" JHW: 4.5" NIA: 3.0" lol fwiw the nam had 9" for kbuf on its 0z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 lol fwiw the nam had 9" for kbuf on its 0z run.. fwiw the nam is on crack. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 fwiw nam 00z precip. haha http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F27%2F2011+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I see Devin and Ayuud want to copy my avatar!!!! Get your own!!!! Don't try to argue with those idiots on WIVB blog its futile. Chris posting stuff about the changeover occurring quicker is simply pathetic, duh! They get hit first. Just focus posting here, its what I do now. Going to try to post there to get some more people here. Its well monitored here with idiots on that blog named Chris and uh Chris...=P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I see Devin and Ayuud want to copy my avatar!!!! Get your own!!!! Don't try to argue with those idiots on WIVB blog its futile. Chris posting stuff about the changeover occurring quicker is simply pathetic, duh! They get hit first. Just focus posting here, its what I do now. Going to try to post there to get some more people here. Its well monitored here with idiots on that blog named Chris and uh Chris...=P mine is from that December 1995 LES event!@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm honestly not expecting much out of this in Toronto. Mainly rain, followed by some sloppy wet snow in the evening that may accumulate on grassy surfaces. This is just not Toronto's winter. Never really is mind you but hisi s bad even by Toronto standards. you have to adjust your standards moving away from ottawa, for a winther enthusiast that is a tough deal to be sure....just will take time to get used to things eventually. toronto can still score some very nice storms, i remember the winter of 07-08 they had a couple that ended up bigger than in ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 mine is from that December 1995 LES event!@ I was 9 at the time. I was living on the west side of Buffalo. I remember jumping off the 2nd floor of the duplex we owned at my uncles house into a huge snow pile. That storm was so insane, the snowfall rates were faster then I have ever seen. Possibly even rivaling the 7 feet of snow. 38 inches of snow in 24 hours, still the record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 OL, I found another station that is still recording both temperature data and snow depth. Ottawa CDA, which has been collecting data for well over 100 years. http://www.climate.w...Month=12&Day=01 thank you!!!!!!! i wonder where that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I was 9 at the time. I was living on the west side of Buffalo. I remember jumping off the 2nd floor of the duplex we owned at my uncles house into a huge snow pile. That storm was so insane, the snowfall rates were faster then I have ever seen. Possibly even rivaling the 7 feet of snow. 38 inches of snow in 24 hours, still the record! My avatar is from the "7 feet of snow in a week event" lol. December 27th, 2001.And you can say that again about the WIVB blog. Especally C from P. Did you see his post earlier about how it would likley be another all rain event on the Niagara Frointier? Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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