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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12

Logan11

By Logan11,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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yeah i agree the lack of cold air has been the killer, not so much tracks..

again i am optimistic now that a blanket of snow is being laid down just to your northover the past week, that should barring a big torch, persist all season after the storm tomorrow, and help with cold supply, at least somewhat, well it can hurt LOL.

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Logan11

Logan11

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The winter of 80-81 was thankless like this....once past the bitter cold period around Christmas. But at least that year it seemed like we started a lot of them with snow...only to turn to a deluge over and over again. History tends to repeat somewhat I guess.

I am so friggin sick of the warm during a storm and cold enough for snow after it passes. I would not be so frustrated with the pattern if half the winter was not pissed away on rain storms. The real frustration is not knowing if it's going to be like this until April.

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Logan11

Logan11

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I think the 18 NAM capitulated some toward the Euro. The surface low is so poor on the NAM and broad, but some kind of center passes pretty close to here, not SYR.

The bottom line on the NAM is the precip is associated with the upper trough and the surface low is weak, broad, somewhat irrelevant until it gets quite far north.

Not even sure how much snow anyone would get with the NAM - such a narrow ribbon of it and so marginal temp-wise.

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ayuud

ayuud

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I think the 18 NAM capitulated some toward the Euro. The surface low is so poor on the NAM and broad, but some kind of center passes pretty close to here, not SYR.

The bottom line on the NAM is the precip is associated with the upper trough and the surface low is weak, broad, somewhat irrelevant until it gets quite far north.

Not even sure how much snow anyone would get with the NAM - such a narrow ribbon of it and so marginal temp-wise.

18z nam Gives Both buf and roc 6",2" for syr and 0" for alb..

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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interesting that Env Canada is going with the flash freeze angle in that special statement. that means they think the cold air is really going to pour into the backside, because they don't issue flash freeze statements just for fun.

I'm driving up to Muskoka on Wednesday. Always wanted to see Muskoka in the winter. Looksl ike they could get 6" of snow up there out of this tomorrow. Fresh snow cover should look good in the sunshine on Wednesday.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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wow i just checked the website, and this is truly devestating news. i hope we arent going to lose snow depth measurements, but i am fearful.

you are right, ottawa is probably one of the very best in north america at snow data.

i can tell you by visual inspection that here in barrhaven, there was about 7-9cm (3-3.5inches) of snow yesterday, i saw the almanac recorded 8.6mm of precip, which i thought would translate into much more snow since it was a clipper type..... but i just shoveled and the snow was a bit wetter and less fluffier than typical clipper snows, so i think my estimate is pretty good.

really really upset about this new though. :(

OL, I found another station that is still recording both temperature data and snow depth. Ottawa CDA, which has been collecting data for well over 100 years.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4333&dlyRange=1889-11-01|2011-12-22&Year=2011&Month=12&Day=01

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

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Hope everyone had a good Christmas! Had a few small piles of snow grains on the grill yesterday morning...a Christmas miracle! :lmao:

Looks like maybe a shot for some of you WNY folks for some light accumulation tomorrow night...then hopes for a white New Year's hinges on a clipper system towards Friday. Feel like there's been a bit of a lack of decent clippers the last couple years...would be nice if it worked out...but models seem to overdo these things more often then not. We'll see what happens.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
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Kalb updated AFD

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE WITH THE STORM

TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN

THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANY SNOW AND MIXED

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND

PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...PERHAPS TO THE LAKE GEORGE

AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME. PRECIPITATION

TRANSITION ZONE SHOULD BE MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT A NARROW

AND BRIEF ZONE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT

ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. SO... INDICATING RAIN AND SNOW

AS PRECIPITATION TYPES UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...LOWER 30S IN THE

SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO NOT FALL MUCH

UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT AS THE STORM BEGINS TO DEPART TOWARD SUNRISE.

SNOW TOTALS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN

ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT NO HEADLINES NEEDED

UNTIL QPF...AREAS AND TIMING OF SNOW A BIT CLEARER.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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My thinking... I believe the higher terrain south of BUF will see more due to obviously their higher elevation which means cooler temps which means more snow. I think E Niagara and Orleans counties will see more due to some lake enhancement off of Ontario. The only reason I have Allegheny county in 2-4" is because the will likley see a bit less precip and warmer temps since they are a bit further east. For the "Major cities" heres my prediction:

BUF: 3.5"

ROC:3.0"

JHW: 4.5"

NIA: 3.0"

post-1351-0-33155100-1324957920.jpg

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ayuud

ayuud

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My thinking... I believe the higher terrain south of BUF will see more due to obviously their higher elevation which means cooler temps which means more snow. I think E Niagara and Orleans counties will see more due to some lake enhancement off of Ontario. The only reason I have Allegheny county in 2-4" is because the will likley see a bit less precip and warmer temps since they are a bit further east. For the "Major cities" heres my prediction:

BUF: 3.5"

ROC:3.0"

JHW: 4.5"

NIA: 3.0"

lol fwiw the nam had 9" for kbuf on its 0z run.. :pimp:

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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fwiw nam 00z precip. haha :pimp:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F27%2F2011+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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I see Devin and Ayuud want to copy my avatar!!!! Get your own!!!! Don't try to argue with those idiots on WIVB blog its futile. Chris posting stuff about the changeover occurring quicker is simply pathetic, duh! They get hit first. Just focus posting here, its what I do now. Going to try to post there to get some more people here. Its well monitored here with idiots on that blog named Chris and uh Chris...=P

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ayuud

ayuud

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I see Devin and Ayuud want to copy my avatar!!!! Get your own!!!! Don't try to argue with those idiots on WIVB blog its futile. Chris posting stuff about the changeover occurring quicker is simply pathetic, duh! They get hit first. Just focus posting here, its what I do now. Going to try to post there to get some more people here. Its well monitored here with idiots on that blog named Chris and uh Chris...=P

mine is from that December 1995 LES event!@

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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I'm honestly not expecting much out of this in Toronto. Mainly rain, followed by some sloppy wet snow in the evening that may accumulate on grassy surfaces. This is just not Toronto's winter. Never really is mind you but hisi s bad even by Toronto standards.

you have to adjust your standards moving away from ottawa, for a winther enthusiast that is a tough deal to be sure....just will take time to get used to things eventually. toronto can still score some very nice storms, i remember the winter of 07-08 they had a couple that ended up bigger than in ottawa.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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mine is from that December 1995 LES event!@

I was 9 at the time. I was living on the west side of Buffalo. I remember jumping off the 2nd floor of the duplex we owned at my uncles house into a huge snow pile. That storm was so insane, the snowfall rates were faster then I have ever seen. Possibly even rivaling the 7 feet of snow. 38 inches of snow in 24 hours, still the record!

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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I was 9 at the time. I was living on the west side of Buffalo. I remember jumping off the 2nd floor of the duplex we owned at my uncles house into a huge snow pile. That storm was so insane, the snowfall rates were faster then I have ever seen. Possibly even rivaling the 7 feet of snow. 38 inches of snow in 24 hours, still the record!

My avatar is from the "7 feet of snow in a week event" lol. December 27th, 2001.

And you can say that again about the WIVB blog. Especally C from P. Did you see his post earlier about how it would likley be another all rain event on the Niagara Frointier? Hahaha

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